Day-after coverage survey
The M’s trade a young, good-hitting, frequently injured good defensive corner outfielder for a once good-hitting, now injury-riddled second baseman who, heading forward, is
– just as likely to be injured
– likely to be a worse hitter
– costs about $12m more through 08 and another ~$9m for 09
– already not a good defender at second and getting worse
If you think Vidro’s going to rebound to his old form because he’ll be able to concentrate on hitting and stay healthy DHing, well, you could do that with Snelling, get better production and save $21m over three years.
They then threw in Fruto, a 22-year old live-arm reliever with great minor league numbers, stuff, and a body that looks like he might have eaten Mateo or something.
What does the press say?
The PI wimps out and runs an AP story.
Geoff Baker at The Seattle Times managed to turn out an article that, unlike his web article that said “Another offensive upgrade for the Mariners is to be finalized later this week when Jose Vidro joins the team as its full-time designated hitter” makes a set of pretty nice points — it includes a discussion of Vidro’s poor health, and manages to point out he doesn’t compare well to AL DHs:
But even his best numbers don’t rival those of the AL’s best DH candidates. The only time he’s topped 20 homers, or slugged better than .500, came during that stellar 2000 campaign.
Vidro has also never had a 100-RBI season, though that was partly a result of batting second in the order through much of his career.
Nice. Much improved from last night, certainly. Though:
To land Vidro, the Mariners finally gave up on the injury-plagued Snelling, 25, an Australian who showed flashes of promise when healthy but has suffered from knee injuries the past five years.
They weren’t all knee injuries.
The MLB.com article is, a little shockingly, conspicously not positive outside the quotes, and even notes how bad his range got last year:
After missing more than a month because of a left hamstring injury, Vidro returned to the club on Aug. 18, and his range at second deteriorated. He had a tough time going to his left and right. It got to a point where then-manager Frank Robinson benched Vidro a few games to give Bernie Castro a shot. Vidro ended the season as a first baseman.
Speaking of mariners.mlb.com, you may wish to vote in this poll:
Not that it’ll do any good.
Jeff @ Lookout Landing had a reaction much like ours.
Vidro’s declined from his peak, and even if he’s able to remain steady for as long as he plays in Seattle, he’s a .270-.280 EqA who doesn’t play the field. That puts him in Jay Gibbons territory, and Jay Gibbons was one of the worst DH’s in the AL last season.
Heh. Jay Gibbons.
Bill Bavasi dealt a young, cheap, good hitter for an old, expensive, arguably worse one, tossing in a talented young arm and a vesting option for good measure. In no way, shape, or form could this ever be mistaken for a good idea. It just couldn’t. There’s no way.
Yup. In general, the Nationals blogs are dancing a jig, as well as our AL West opponents. I’m not saying that consensus is the truth, or that many blogs should be considered to constitute authority, but if all your enemies get together to dance on a grave and sing with joy, well, you might be dead.
Vidro comment of the day
Many sources:
“I’m really looking forward to the opportunity to go to the American League and play for a team that has a pretty good shot,” he said. “They have a legitimate lineup, and they’re going to sign some pitchers. It’s looking very good.”
It appears Jose Vidro isn’t aware that the Mariners have traded Chris Snelling and Emiliano Fruto for Jose Vidro.
New extra-fun Vidro trade comment thread
… because we now have many threads. Now there is only one.
So, to sum up:
Vidro for Snelling and Fruto.
Vidro thinks he’s going to DH.
BP on the trade
Two quick posts on their blog. Nate posts the 2007 PECOTAs:
EqBA EqOBP EqSLG EqA Age ‘07 Salary Jose Vidro .283 .352 .406 .266 32 $7.5M Chris Snelling .265 .356 .438 .283 25 $1.0M*
And says:
Younger, cheaper, and better. It’s hard to win a trade when you’re on the wrong side of each of those parameters.
Yup.
I want to cry
I was at a Christmas party when my phone started going nuts. “Goodbye Snelling” was the first message, then they started pouring in.
Needless to say, the rest of the party wasn’t quite as enjoyable.
There’s no other way to put this – I want to cry. This sucks.
WaPo report: M’s agree to trade Snelling, Fruto for Vidro
The Washington Nationals took a major step toward freeing room on their future payroll and breaking loose a logjam in the middle infield, agreeing to trade second baseman Jose Vidro — who has spent his entire career with the Montreal-Washington organization — to the Seattle Mariners for a pair of prospects that could contribute to the 2007 team, Vidro said in a telephone interview tonight.
The trade — which is pending a physical for Vidro, expected to take place Thursday
I guess we hope Vidro blows that physical like a horse in Enumclaw, because this is crazy.
Chris Snelling is a 25-year old corner outfielder with an injury history and a plus arm who hit .250/.360/.427. Based on his PECOTA projections, he’s one of the best hitting prospects in baseball. He was the third or fourth-best hitter on the team last year (performance, not taking playing time into account).
Fruto’s a 22-year old reliever. He’s a big boy. He’s got a ridiculous change and through his whole career in the minors he was as stingy giving up the home run as you could possibly hope for.
Jose Vidro is a 31-yr old second baseman who hit .289/.348/.395 for the Nationals last year.
Does this bode ill for Jose Lopez? It does.
Nearly as important for Washington, however, is that Seattle has agreed to pay $12 million of the remaining $16 million left on Vidro’s contract for 2007 and ’08.
You don’t take that on if he’s going to sit.
The Mariners have traded two players, one finally healthy and tearing the cover off the ball who can play right or left, and a still younger, cheap, effective reliever in order to acquire a 31-year old passable hitter who plays a position where team has another cheap, effective player (if Hargrove would just stop telling him to ground out over and over).
I’ve tried to come up with a justification for this, and I can’t. There must be another deal waiting, which makes this hard to justify in isolation: at least one of Broussard/Lopez/Sexson is going to be booted.
But this move hurts the team. More than just next season: Snelling and Fruto were both the kind of players who could be parts of the next Mariner championship team. Snelling in particular could be one of the best hitters on any team (if he stays healthy, of course), and he’s under team control for years for very little money. Jose Vidro’s a declining, increasingly immobile player on the wrong side of his peak who’ll be paid an immense amount of money. Vidro will not help the M’s win a pennant. If it comes to be, this will be one of the worst trades the team’s ever made, even if Snelling never plays another game and Fruto doesn’t throw another strike.
This is ridiculous garbage.
Update: Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times writes
Another offensive upgrade for the Mariners is to be finalized later this week when Jose Vidro joins the team as its full-time designated hitter.
No, but whatever.
“I think this is the best deal for me,” Vidro said in a telephone interview tonight from his home in Puerto Rico. “By me becoming the DH it will give me the chance to focus exclusively on my hitting and not have to worry about all that other stuff.”
So DH it is, which means the team’ll be paying him a ton of money to be a below-average DH. Broussard’s then the obvious next move.
Update: the hot rumor is that this also involved picking up Vidro’s 2009 option, which is a dingleberry topping on the shit frosting on today’s shit cake. Whee.
People smuggling case names Betancourt
Seattle Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt and the family of Chicago White Sox pitcher Jose Contreras were among the Cubans allegedly smuggled into the United States by an agent and others accused of immigration violations, federal prosecutors say.
Betancourt and another Cuban baseball player, Zaydel Beltran, were among a group of Cubans smuggled to the United States by boat on Dec. 4, 2003, and then driven to Los Angeles, according to documents filed this week in the case against agent Gustavo “Gus” Dominguez and five other defendants.
It gets weirder:
Betancourt was driven from Los Angeles to Mexico to obtain a visa to legitimize his entry into the United States but his Mexican passport was “determined to be fraudulent,” prosecutors said. He was arrested by Mexican authorities but later released and entered the U.S. again on Oct. 10, 2004, as a Cuban seeking asylum.
Some strange stuff afoot.
Don’t let the door hit ya’
Joel Pineiro is officially a free agent.
Lack of learning, looming losses lead to Lincoln layoff?
Superreader msb emailed us this morning and I’ve been pondering this all day:
If we go back to Thiel’s offseason piece, and pretend Lincoln is also on the hot seat (“”The entire organization, and especially me, is on the hot seat,” he said in an interview at his stadium office. “I thought long and hard about continuing with Bill and Mike. I’m putting my neck out on the line because I believe in them. I’ve made it clear to the ownership group that, having made the decision, I’m fully responsible for it.”) who do we want to come in as CEO so that they can hire Chris Antonetti for us?
I don’t know. I’ve felt for a long time that Bavasi was the best GM Lincoln might hire (and I mean that in the nicest way to Bavasi possible), and that in a lot of ways, we’ve been lucky to get him, because the organization as a whole is a lot better off today than it was a couple years ago. But what about that question?
I’ll start with some overly broad generalizations. There are members of the M’s ownership group that are smart, tech-industry people we’d like to think would be more saavy ownership stewards, more open to a pitch for Antonetti, or Ng, or any of the half-dozen interesting GM candidates who aren’t retreads and might bring something really interesting to the team and help it build sustainable, competitive teams that are both profitable and win pennants.
There are also members of the M’s ownership group who are more retail-oriented, and we might think they’d look at the team on the field as product (we want to sell a high-quality product, so we need to have a high-quality team). Buuuut they might also do exactly what drives us, as the hardest of hard-core fans, insane: marketing over substance, a constant drive to identify, brand, and sell players to us, and the same kind of brand-over-results thinking that gets Bloomquist pointless extensions.
What about Nintendo, though? They’re the majority owners, and we can reasonably assume they’ll control any replacement for Lincoln if they finally sack him. Superreader Aditya Sood (two superreaders in one article) sent us this:
This James Surowiecki article from the New Yorker is an interesting analysis of Nintendo’s current mindset in the gaming world–and actually also speaks volumes about their philosophy to the baseball world as well.
The bottom line is what is good for the one (the Wii) is dreadful for the other (your 2004-2006 Seattle Mariners!)
What is interesting though, is that the Wii’s development and execution indicates a willingness to embrace out of the box thinking and a refreshing strategy for success which seems like it supports the Billy Beane/Moneyball model. So basically the Mariners are the GameCube in the Wii world. Or maybe it’s more like the Virtual Boy.
(Another, possibly unrelated side note. Nintendo didn’t embrace the Wii mindset until AFTER Howard Lincoln stepped down from the day to day oversight of the company–to focus on the Mariners.)
It’s a particularly interesting point. Nintendo’s Wii, at least this holiday season, beaten up on the higher-powered Xbox 360 and PS3 in both raw sales and to an even greater extent, media love, despite having far inferior technical specs. In the past, each generation of consoles has been a huge step forward in raw power, and here we see the Wii essentially opt out of it in favor of a cheaper, wackier system that attempts to appeal to an underserved demographic.
(Blantant suck-up: We would love to evaluate the relative merits of these systems here at USSM Labs. Please contact us.)
Would they, as Sood suggests, put that to work in choosing a Lincoln replacement? Someone willing to spend in strange directions that might help the team escape ever-escalating free agent competition? Or does being owned by a company whose fortunes are not directly tied to the team mean that they’re likely to act conservatively to protect the team’s profitability and value? That suggests that Lincoln would, if replaced at all, be succeeded by a different face of the same philosophy.
Miguel Batista
Ken Rosenthal reports that, barring a last minute change, the Mariners are expected to sign Miguel Batista to a deal expected to be for more than 3 years and $24 million.
This one is tough for me. I like Miguel Batista as a pitcher. I lobbied for the M’s to sign him several years ago, and he’s consistently underrated. He’s better than most of the guys who were on the market this winter. If you had forced me to sign free agent starting pitchers this winter, he’d have been near the top of the list of guys I would have gone after.
But context is also important, and in the case of the roster the Mariners have built, Miguel Batista is not what this team needs. He’s a durable guy that turns 36 in February who keeps the ball in the yard and won’t get you blown out of ballgames, but he doesn’t miss bats and has mediocre command. That package makes him a #4 starter on a team with a good rotation, but now, he’s the Mariners #2 starter. A three year contract would wrap him up through his age 38 season.
If the Batista signing comes through, the rotation will be Felix and four guys who profile as back of the rotation arms. They’ll be paying in excess of $20 million for Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, and Horacio Ramirez. That’s just poor roster construction, and the opportunity cost is just as large as the salary.
The M’s had a great opportunity to pick up undervalued pitching this winter. John Thomson, Rodrigo Lopez, and Angel Guzman could have provided the M’s with 90% of what they’ll get from Batista, Ramirez, and Baek and done so for 25% of the cost.
After a promising start to the offseason, with the Guillen signing, the avoidance of the crazy contracts being given out to bad pitchers, and the rumors of a John Thomson deal, this winter has gone to hell in a handbasket. And it only took about four days.
Antonetti in ’08.