Mini FAQ
You can thank John Hickey for this post. In one column in Tuesday’s P-I, and one post on the P-I blog, he managed to move the Mariners from a figure in the shadows to the most notable team in Orlando. Not bad for 1,000 words. Since I know you guys are going to hammer the threads with these questions, let’s do a short Q&A about what I’m hearing about the rumors going around right now.
1. Are the Mariners really going after Manny Ramirez?
Yes and no. The Mariners and Red Sox have had multiple conversations about Ramirez, but they did not come to Orlando with the intention of walking away with Ramirez as their DH. The M’s established contact with the Red Sox to set themselves up as a backup plan in case things with the Dodgers didn’t work out and they found themselves looking for suitors for Manny. During talks last night and this morning, the Red Sox asked the Dodgers for every single player on their roster and $250 billion in gold bars, or something close to it, and the Dodgers understandably walked away.
At some point after that, the Red Sox called the M’s to establish a legitimate alternative option in case the deal with LA was irreconcilable. The Mariners know that a payroll with Manny can’t also include Richie Sexson, so the Giants were hauled in as a conduit. Brian Sabean has been after Sexson for months, and since he’s also been pursuing Ramirez but lacked the necessary trade chips to get something done, a three-way deal evolved as the logical answer.
So, they talked and laid the foundations for the possibility of a deal. The idea has been explored. But, and this is a big deal, this three-way trade isn’t the #1 option on any of these teams wish lists. The Red Sox want to deal with LA and rob them of some very good young talent. The Giants want Ramirez for themselves. The Mariners just want Jason Schmidt to stop trying to get a deal that locks him up through age 86 and sign on the dotted line.
This is a backup plan for all three teams, which makes it extremely unlikely that it’s going to happen. A friend asked me tonight what I thought the odds are of this deal going down and I told him 5%, or 10% if I really optimistic that minute. Either way, it’s a long shot.
2. You’ve said that the names in Hickey’s report aren’t completely accurate. Who is involved?
Sexson is involved. Everyone else on the roster not named Felix, Betancourt, or Ichiro is up for discussion. But there’s no deal on the table – there’s not an offer that sends Jones and Putz to Boston, Ramirez and Lowry to Seattle, and Sexson to San Francisco. All those names have been mentioned in discussions, but from what I understand, that’s not the trade that would happen. That deal wouldn’t work for Boston or San Francisco, and at that price, Los Angeles would get back in the game. And once LA is back in the game, the M’s are back to being Plan B.
3. Are the M’s really going after Barry Zito?
The M’s have called every pitcher with a pulse during the past few weeks. The team source that Hickey talked to was right – if the years were the same, of course you’d be interested in the younger guy. But it was a completely hypothetical statement, because the years aren’t anywhere close to the same. Jason Schmidt is going to get 4 years and is trying to get 5. Barry Zito wants 6 and might get 7, and Zito’s going to get more money per year to boot. I’m sure the M’s have talked about Barry Zito, and I’m sure there’s no chance that they actually sign him. With the Rangers involved in the bidding, it’s in the Mariners best interest to create a public perception of significant interest from other parties, but I don’t know of any offseason plan the Mariners have created that includes Barry Zito taking the hill on opening day of 2007.
4. Tim Hudson? Adam LaRoche? Where are these names coming from?
Depending on who you talk to, the Braves and Mariners may or may not have talked about a deal this afternoon that would have swapped pitchers and first baseman and cash, and they may or may not have talked about using Atlanta in lieu of San Francisco as the third team in a Manny deal. There are a lot of deals to be made with the Braves that make a lot of sense for the Mariners – there are significantly less that makes sense for John Schuerholz and crew.
5. What do you think of all these moves?
There are so many permutations of each rumor that it’s impossible to give a thumbs up or thumbs down on potential deals. But I will say this – the M’s are talking about making the right kind of deal, and that makes me happier than anything. They’ve clearly decided that if they’re going to pay superstar prices for talent, they’re actually going to try to get a superstar for the money, and that’s the best conclusion they could have come to.
I don’t think the Mariners are going to end up with Manny Ramirez, Tim Hudson, or Adam LaRoche, but we should all love the fact that they’re trying.
Site slow, comments off
Hey. You may have noticed the site’s been slow or non-responsive today. We’re under a massive request load. I’ve turned off comments for a while in the hopes that some of our more obsessive reloaders will knock it off, and we’ll see how things go.
8pm update: we’re starting to bring features back online. Comments just came back up. May be up and down for a while. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Monday rumors
We’ll give you guys a new thread so you stop refreshing the Guillen one every five seconds and hammering our server. Please be kind.
The M’s are talking about Manny. Hooray. (11 pm edit: Strong talk, at that)
The M’s are willing to deal Sexson. Hooray.
The M’s officially signed Guillen, DFA’d Livingston. Hooray.
Hard to complain about any of the rumblings so far. No Carl Everett or Jarrod Washburn type rumors to make me want to crawl up in a ball and cry.
Winter Meetings Predictions
The offseason kicks into high gear tomorrow as the winter meetings officially get underway. Most teams were traveling to Orlando today, but now that all 30 teams are in one hotel hanging out, expect a flurry of major moves in the next few days. While the Mariners aren’t the big player they were two years ago, there’s still a good chance that they could make some big splashes. You’re going to hear them linked to a lot of names, as one of the hallmarks of this front office is exploring a lot of different options simultaneously.
Most of what you read isn’t going to come to fruition. But some of it will. Based on some conversations I’ve had with people in Orlando, rumors that have been kicking around for the past few weeks, and just a general gut feeling, here’s what I’m betting on the Mariners doing before the winter meetings end – but please note that not even Bill Bavasi has any idea what they’re actually going to accomplish, so 95% of this is going to be wrong. Take it with many grains of salt.
Okay, so I’m not going out on a big limb here. Schmidt wants to pitch in Seattle, and despite his agent trying to drum up interest in him from other teams, everyone in baseball knows it. The Mariners know it too, so they’ve been unwilling to bid against themselves, which is why Schmidt isn’t yet a Mariner. But it’d be the stunner of the offseason if it didn’t happen. He wants to pitch here, they want him to pitch here, and they have the money. It’s about as much of a lock as you can have in baseball.
Much to my delight, the M’s are willing to talk about dealing Richie Sexson, but probably a few weeks late. The Orioles and Giants have already signed right-handed first base options (Millar and Aurilia, respectively), and the line of GMs interested in Sexson as a $14 million player doesn’t extend far beyond those two cities. The addition of Jose Guillen gives the Mariners another RH bat with some power to replace Sexson in the line-up, which makes them more amenable to dealing him, but it’s unlikely that they’ll find a team willing to match the price. So, rather than taking Broussard to arbitration and paying him $4 million to play an undefined role, expect the M’s to ship him to the Orioles for a mediocre prospect or two.
Jeremy Reed has no future in Seattle. One of Bill Bavasi’s personal beliefs is that players deserve a chance to have a career, and he’s consistently bent over backwards to trade players in an effort to give them a better opportunity than he can offer. The M’s are going to sell low on Reed, but acquiring a live armed reliever or two will give them the opportunity to…
- Trade Rafael Soriano and a couple of prospects to Colorado for Jason Jennings
The Mariners have noticed the high price that relief pitchers have been fetching in trades the past six months, and none of the relievers moved have been as talented as Rafael Soriano. Due to his continuing arm issues, they’re not considering moving him to the rotation, and J.J. Putz has a hammerlock on the closer job, so he’s pigeonholed as a setup man in Seattle, and there are several teams that would love to hand him the ball in the 9th inning. The Rockies are going to trade Jennings if they can’t sign him to a long term contract, and despite the likely deal with John Thomson, Bavasi would love to add another 200 inning workhorse to slide into the middle of the rotation.
Two small trades, one large trade, and the most obvious free agent signing in history.
All of this is possible. No one knows what will happen this week, but that’s my best guess.
Guillen details emerge
$5m base, ~$3m more possible in incentives. $9m option for 2008. He expects to play right field.
I’m not too distressed over the money, since there are a lot of ways they could have spent a lot more over a longer period of time. And, I’m about 50% annoyed that this likely means Snelling heads to Tacoma/the bench despite being generally awesome and 50% hopeful this means they’re thinking Guillen plays right the bulk of the time, Snelling plays left, and Ibanez moves to DH… or something happens along those lines. I’m willing to give this some time.
As now quoted many places:
“It’s to play in right field,” he said. “All of the discussions we had were about me being in right field.”
The Mariners at the 2007 winter meetings
With the real rock-em, sock-em winter meetings starting, it’s a good time to go through the off-season roster construction exercise and think about what’s yet to be done.
So for format, I’m grouping the guys, doing a little individual commentary, and then talking about the the group as a whole.
Rotation (5)
RHP Hernandez
LHP Washburn
RHP Thomson
SP4 ?
SP5 ?
We can assume that the 5th starter’s going to be available to Baek/Woods/whoever comes out of spring training. I still think the M’s lose the Schmidt bidding and land him for something ridiculous over four years. Or more. Don’t put it past them.
Winter meeting need: starters, any way they can get them. If they land Schmidt, they’re probably going to be shopping for cheap AAAA-type guys to make sure there’s something to throw into the 5th rotation and as insurance against injuries.
Relief (7)
RHP Lehr
RHP Mateo
RHP Putz
RHP Soriano
LHP O’Flaherty
LHP Sherrill
LHP Woods
The bullpen’s solid and cheap. There’s been no need for the team to go shopping for middle relievers. They may even be shopping Soriano, which makes sense: he’s getting expensive and if they don’t believe he can start, they may be able to get something they covet for him, and then fill his spot with a warm body.
Woods, or whoever finishes second in the race for the back-of-the-rotation spot, will be fine as the long relief/spot starter guy. Realistically, whoever has a hot hand in spring training is still likely to about as good as the rest of the options for that spot.
I hope Mateo, the veteran presence in middle relief, is going to come back from his 2006, but I wouldn’t bet on it. As long as Hargrove keeps him out of important situa.. oooooh. Right.
We’re quite fortunate in the strength of the bullpen. It’s strong, deep, and durable enough to absorb some innings if the team brings in a short-yard starter, if things come to that. Heck, they did well with last year’s rotation, this has to be an improvement, right? Right?
The bullpen could be improved, certainly, and maybe tailored a little more to the park and to vary the skillsets, but the cost to do so is pretty huge on the free agent market. I’m not going to carp about this unit.
We’re assuming here that Hargrove uses at least 12 pitchers. He’s been known to carry 13, because he’s not a good manager. That leaves us 13 position players:
Infield (5)
C-R Johjima
1B-R Sexson
2B-R Lopez
SS-R Betancourt
3B-R Beltre
Except for Sexson, this is a really good defensive infield, which means you don’t have to carry a glove specialist or two for lead-protection situations. It’s a nice situation to be in, from a roster construction standpoint.
Could use a left-handed bat for variety’s sake. But wait…
Outfield (4)
RF/LF-R Guillen
CF-L Ichiro
LF/DH-L Ibanez
RF/LF-L Snelling
Ideally, you get Snelling a day off at least once a week and DH him another day. You want him hitting as much as possible, but it’s entirely valid to be concerned about wearing his knees down and hope to keep him healthy by being smart about it.
The ideal defensive alignment clearly puts Ichiro/Snelling/Guillen out there, and pushes Ibanez somewhere else. Guillen’s likely to be unhappy in a 4th OFer role, and Snelling’s wasted. Hargrove’s likely to find some way to platoon with Snelling, even though it’s pointless.
The team’s backup centerfielder is playing for Tacoma. If Ichiro gets hurt, you can stick Bloomquist (or Snelling, for that matter) out there if you have to for a game, but they need a quality defensive centerfielder and besides Ichiro, they don’t have one on the short roster. If Ichiro’s hurt, they need to immediately fly Jones from wherever he is to wherever the team will be the next night even if it seems likely Ichiro’ll be able to play the next day.
That’s a reasonable solution, too. Earl Weaver used to say his backup shortstop was in Rocherster. Adam Jones needs his playing time more than the team needs him to sit on the bench in case something happens.
The rest (4)
DH/1B-L Broussard
Embarassing year at the plate. Ugly, ugly, ugly. Given the team’s general reliance on their eyes and their impressions of the player in front of them (even when visiting) it’s a little surprising they haven’t shown him the door already. (Bonus questions: will his struggles make him an even better musician, adding a little more angst and depth to his surprisingly good and catchy dude-strumming-guitar work?)
IF/OF-R Bloomquist
Plays decent defense around the diamond, hasn’t, can’t, and won’t ever hit.
IF/LF-R Morse
What do you say about Morse? He’s a failure at being an anti-Bloomquist. Anti-Bloomquist would at least hit a lot better (and left-handed). Morse hits a little and doesn’t play defense at your choice of positions. At least Bloomquist carries a decent glove around the diamond.
Dobbs might get the call instead of Morse as a left-handed bat, but that seems less likely.
C-R Rivera
Rivera’s on the 40m right now, which gives him an advantage over Rob Johnson, but it’s likely either way the M’s aren’t going to try and squeeze much production out of the spot. A better backup option, combined with a better manager, might get Johjima more regular rest and possibly help Kenji’s offense.
What’s that all mean for the winter meetings and the rest of the off-season?
They need to sign a pitcher, a middle-rotation-or-better guy they can pencil in for 200 innings. This will almost certainly be Jason Schmidt.
For the rest of the roster, it’s surprising when you look at it this way: they don’t scream out for much. I don’t look at this set of guys and think “oh, they’re dying for a switch-hitting middle infield backup who can steal 15 bases.” There are, for a decent manager, a pretty varied set of tools that don’t require a lot of caddies or substitutions, which is good, because there’s no evidence Hargrove still knows, if he has ever known, how to do those things anyway.
You can immediately see the problem we’ve been waving our hands and screaming about all year: the team’s got too many corner outfield/1B/DH guys.
That’s the second big thing that is probably on Bavasi’s agenda: clear a spot. They need to punt Sexson, preferably, but it still seems more likely to be Broussard. Then they can push Ibanez to DH, Broussard to first, or whatever they work out. Even if they signed or traded for some weird first base piece – a defensive specialist first baseman, heck – they could still work them in with the rest of the mix. But as it stands, they’ve got an excess on the corners and 1B, and they’d be well-off to fix it.
We all know they’re going into the winter meetings looking for at least one pitcher. The interesting question is whether they’re looking to solve their other problem, and if they’re looking to move Sexson to one of the few teams that could take him (do it! do it!), if they’re going to try to move the less-expensive Broussard to the larger pool of teams that could take him, and which direction they end up going.
M’s close to signing Jose Guillen
Looks like the Mariners have gotten the memo – one year gambles are a good way to go in a market when everyone else is committing away a roster spot for half a decade or more.
Both the Nationals writer for MLB.com and Corey Brock are reporting that the Mariners are nearing a one year deal for Jose Guillen, who would replace Eduardo Perez on the roster. In anticipation of this signing, the Nationals offered Jose Guillen, a type B free agent, arbitration last night. This means the Nats will receive a compensatory first round pick (but not from the Mariners) if Guillen signs elsewhere. They clearly believe he will sign elsewhere, as they have no interest in bringing him back for 2007.
So, what does Guillen bring to the M’s? An interesting package. He’s one of the most tools-laden outfielders in the game when healthy, mixing power, speed, and a rocket arm. However, he’s got a lot of flaws; his plate discipline is horrible, he’s feuded with almost every manager he’s had, and he’s coming off Tommy John surgery that ended a 2006 season that was shaping up to be a massive disappointment anyways.
Guillen claims he’ll be ready for spring training, and if that’s true, he’s a good bet to post a .270/.330/.460 line (adjusted for Safeco) while playing solid defense in a corner outfield role. That’s easily worth the $3 to $4 million they’re expected to pay him, and having a RH outfielder on the roster is a necessity.
Questions abound, however.
Is he healthy enough to throw? If he’s not, then he’s a platoon DH, and not a great one at that.
Will Hargrove acknowledge that Snelling needs to play and use this to shift Ibanez to DH, or more likely, does this make Snelling a fourth outfielder?
Does this end their pursuit of a veteran left-handed outfielder? Let’s all hope so.
Would Guillen’s addition give them the courage to move Richie Sexson? Unlikely, and with the Giants signing 142 players in the past two days, they’re running out of suitors.
Overall, I like the deal. It’s another short contract that has the ability to become a bargain, and the M’s did need a RH outfielder on the roster. However, it comes with a metric ton of baggage, and there’s a decent chance that the M’s could get a similar performance from Adam Jones for the league minimum. However, depth is valuable, and so is allowing Jones to start 2007 in Tacoma.
It’s a medium risk, medium reward move, but I certainly prefer Jose Guillen for one year over any of the potential left-handed outfielders that have been discussed.
John Thomson
Okay, the news is out. Corey Brock has the scoop at the M’s official site.
The Mariners are on the verge of signing John Thomson to a one year contract, reportedly with an option for a second year. I’ve expressed my preference for one year deals for pitchers repeatedly, and Thomson is the kind of pitcher that is often undervalued.
By no means is he a great pitcher, but when he’s healthy, he’s an average innings eater. He gets groundballs, throws strikes, keeps the ball in the yard, and even misses bats occassionally. The big knock against him is health – he’s logged less than 100 innings each of the last two seasons due to various problems. He’s not the most durable guy, and at age 33, he’s entering the twilight of his career.
But, given the escalating costs of mediocrity, a short term deal for Thomson is a bargain. He’s basically Jeff Suppan’s less durable twin. They have the same skillset and similar stuff. They get their results the same way. Suppan is asking for $40 million over 4 years. The Mariners found a similar talent for a fraction of that amount.
This is how you assemble the back-end of a rotation. Sign John Thomson and Justin Lehr to give competition to the young pitchers, and use the money saved by not paying for experience to spend on position players.
John Thomson can help the Mariners, and for the price, it’s a good buy. Kudos to Bill Bavasi for finding one of the better deals in a crazy free agent market.
Friday’s news
Okay, soooo…. Zito’s talking to the Rangers, goood, the Diamondbacks are talking to Mulder, good, and Bud Selig, Commissioner of Baseball, says he’ll retire when his contract ends in three years. Uh huh. We’ve heard that before.
So what else is going on? Uh, Eaton did go to Philly, LHP Okajima agreed to terms with the Red Sox…
M’s add a pitcher – really!
This isn’t going to show up in the local dailies, and no one in town is going to care, but the M’s have signed a pitcher who has a legitimate chance to help them in 2007.
Okay, I know what you’re thinking – he’s 29 and has a career 5.31 ERA in 83 innings in the majors. To which I respond, so what? It’s 83 innings.
Justin Lehr is a guy who deserves a shot and has never gotten one. He’s never going to be an all-star, but he’s got a skillset that works in the major leagues; groundballs and strikeouts.
He threw 112 innings in the rotation for Nashville this year and had a GB rate of 50.1%. His Triple-A G/F rate is the same as Felix’s was when he was in Tacoma. This wasn’t a one time thing, either, as Lehr has a long tradition as a groundball guy. However, he’s not a one tricky pony like Sean Green – Lehr’s got decent enough secondary stuff and solid command, allowing him to post a 31/90 walk to strikeout ratio. His walk rate and strikeout rates were better than average in the Pacific Coast League, and for a heavy ground ball pitcher, that’s rare.
Lehr lacks an outpitch and he’s spent most of his career in the bullpen, but the Brewers were onto something when they decided to stretch him out in their Triple-A rotation. He doesn’t have the dominant stuff to be an end-game reliever, but his sinkerball has enough movement to get him through 5 or 6 innings a game. If you want to see the prototype of this type of pitcher, check out Clay Hensley, who gave the Padres 200 good innings in the rotation last year by just throwing his sinker over and over.
Justin Lehr, on a minor league contract, is a terrific signing. He’s better than Cha Baek or Jake Woods, and as a non-guaranteed invite to spring training, there’s no risk here, and a decent amount of upside.
Whenever someone tells you that there’s no pitching to be had on the cheap, point to Justin Lehr. Bargains can be found if you look in the right places. The Mariners found one, and now we just have to hope they use him.