Game 148, Mariners at Rangers
The late summer rushes have all of us at USS Mariner Labs occupied with various and sundry tasks. Except Derek, who is on vacation. Apologies for my recent absence.
No one is more regretful than me that I wasn’t around to organize a “USSMariner-a-thon,” where you could bid on such items as a dream date with Dave, cooking lessons from Jason, Peter White brand invisible ink or a thesaurus autographed by me and Derek. I’ll be around more this coming week.
Today, it’s Joel “Hold ‘Em High” Pineiro versus Kenny “Hide Your Women and Photographers” Rogers. It’s all about dignity at this point.
Wisconsin loses deciding game
South Bend beat the Timber Rattlers 4-0 today to win the Midwest League title, three games to two. After falling behind 2-0, Wisconsin won the next two games at home before dropping today’s finale.
And if you missed it, Tacoma was swept out of the PCL championship series by Nashville earlier.
Random Musings
This is going to be a short post, because, well, I’m ridiculously busy, but I didn’t want to go another day with just a game thread for you guys. See, we do care.
If you’re wondering, Derek’s “Off The Wall” column in the P-I is on hiatus because he’s on vacation. As I’m sure you’ve noticed, when he goes on vacation, USSM postings grind to a halt. Derek is the straw that stirs the drink.
Interesting article in the P-I today about parking around Safeco. Check it out.
The KJR afternoon guys are auctioning off stuff for charity. Included is a dinner with Bill Bavasi, an afternoon with Howard Lincoln (I mean, how much fun would that be…) and some other Mariner related stuff. Auctions end tonight, so check them out if you’re so inclined.
Happy Felix Day!
Minor League playoffs resume tonight. Check em out if you’re in T-Town.
Week #25 in Review
I nearly forgot the season was still going on. Forgive me.
Happy Felix Day!
Vital Signs
Wins: 64. Losses: 82. Games out of first place: 17.
Over the last two weeks, the Mariners have gained one game in the standings. Oakland and Los Angeles are tied for first with 16 left to play – 4 for those against one another. The Rangers and third place are now 8.5 games away. The M’s are now nearly four and a half games worse than we would expect them to be, according to third-order wins, with still the Devil Rays and Royals with fewer W3 wins
Runs Scored: 642 (12th in the American League). Batting average: .257 (last). On-base percentage: .317 (last). Slugging percentage: .395 (tied with Minnesota for last). Home runs: 122 (tied with Toronto for 11th). Bases on balls: 413 (8th). EqA: .250 (11th). The American league average is .268/.329/.425.
Runs allowed: 669 (7th). Staff ERA: 4.41 (7th). DIPS ERA: 4.66 (12th). Strikeouts: 781 (last). Bases on balls: 456 (9th). Home runs allowed: 159 (11th). Starters ERA: 4.90 (10th). Relievers ERA: 3.37 (4th). Defensive efficiency: 70.3% (4th).
Clap your hands, oh ye Mariner fans, the M’s had a winning week and swept the playoff bound (maybe) Los Angeles Angels. It was their first sweep since the Royals a month ago. They went 4-3 against the Orioles, Angels and one game with the Rangers. They outscored the opposition 32-28 (hardly dominating, but we’re taking anything at this point), out-homered the opposition 5-2 and drew more bases on balls 25-15. The offense hit .287/.362/.409, which would suggest that they made contact, getting their hits, and they drew their walks, but there was very little power.
Heroes
Hot hot Raul Ibanez went 14-for-28 (.500/.563/.786) with a pair of doubles and a pair of home runs. He collected two 4-hit games this week and drove in 4 runs Wednesday in the Mariners 10-9 win over the Angels.
In a bizarro week, Felix Hernandez allows 6 earned runs in 7 innings while Ryan Franklin and Joel Pineiro combine 15.2 innings and allowed 2 earned runs between them. Felix, though, struck out more than both of them together. And keep in mind that Franklin and Pineiro faced an anemic Angels offense, while Felix had Baltimore, a bit more of a heftier offense.
Game 146, Mariners at Rangers
Jeff Harris vs Kameren Loe. Loe, by the way, is an extreme groundball pitcher.
The M’s run the same line-up out there that they did yesterday, except Torrealba replaces Ojeda behind the plate.
Game 145, Angels at Mariners
The M’s send Jamie Moyer to the hill to try to sweep the Angels. The Halos counter with Joe Saunders. Yes, THE Joe Saunders. Okay, so you probably don’t know who he is. Which, if recent history is to be repeated, means he’s in line for the game of his life. Odds of a shutout? At least 40 percent.
1. Ichiro
2. Reed
3. Ibanez
4. Sexson
5. Beltre
6. Lopez
7. Dobbs
8. Betancourt
9. Ojeda
Betancourt is hitting .228/.249/.318 in 144 at-bats. Miguel Ojeda is deemed a worse hitter and gets to bat 9th. Other, possibly more humiliating experiences would include:
Hearing Tim McCarver utter the words “I agree with you completely”.
Your girlfriend leaves you for Corco.
Having your credit card declined at Goodwill. (this happened to me, by the way)
Receiving an award for quality sportswriting from Steve Kelly.
Game 144, Angels at Mariners
Ryan Franklin is pitching. You probably have something more important to do than watch this game.
Rainiers Gamecast
Want to follow the Rainiers as they play Nashville for the PCL title, but can’t listen to broadcaster extraordinaire Mike Curto? Minor League Baseball is offering a gamecast of the playoff series, pitch by pitch. Pretty sweet.
Enjoy.
Midwest League Championship Series
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers vs. South Bend Silver Hawks
GAME ONE, today: Wisconsin (RHP Mark Lowe) @ South Bend (LHP Kellen Raab) 7pm
GAME TWO, WED 9/14: Wisconsin (RHP Aaron Jensen) @ South Bend (RHP Ross Ohlendorf) 7pm
GAME THREE, THU 9/15: South Bend (RHP Koley Kohlberg) @ Wisconsin (LHP Shawn Nottingham) 6:35pm
*GAME FOUR, FRI 9/16: South Bend (RHP Chris Kinsey) @ Wisconsin (LHP Robert Rohrbaugh) 6:35pm
*GAME FIVE, SAT 9/17: South Bend (RHP Steven Jackson) @ Wisconsin (RHP Cibney Bello) 1:05pm
*If neccessary. All times local.
The Silver Hawks have something of a juggernaut offense, having finished first in the Midwest League in batting average, runs scored, and homers. They were 7th in ERA and 2nd in strikeouts by their pitchers.
Wisconsin, meanwhile… well, you look at the team stats and wonder how they got here. Second in team batting average and runs scored, seventh in homers, OK. But 13th in ERA, 14th in strikeouts, and second-worst in walks allowed.
Joel Pineiro, Again
Last night, Joel Pineiro turned in his seventh Quality Start in his last eight tries. The “Joel Is Back” bandwagon is gaining steam. The talk in the local dailies is of his dominance and how well he has pitched lately. Mike Hargrove even proclaimed “This game was probably the best of them all”, which is, to be honest, absurd. As I pointed out last week, Pineiro’s recent performances weren’t one continuous trend, but rather a sprinkling of truly good performances with some mediocre starts and an absolute abomination of a game in Minnesota.
However, the belief is still being perpetuated that Pineiro, since the beginning of August, has had a strong positive upward trend in his performance with just the one outlier in the middle of the month. It’s just not true. Let’s take a look at his game log.
IP H R ER HR BB K BB/BF K/BF FIP 6.33 8 2 2 2 1 4 0.04 0.15 6.52 8.67 7 2 2 0 0 4 0.00 0.14 2.28 8 6 3 3 0 2 4 0.06 0.13 2.95 6.67 13 8 8 1 1 2 0.04 0.07 5.00 6 7 3 3 1 2 3 0.07 0.11 5.37 6.67 5 1 1 0 1 7 0.04 0.25 1.55 8 6 2 2 0 1 5 0.03 0.17 2.33 7.67 3 1 1 0 2 2 0.07 0.07 3.46
Those numbers should be self explanatory. The last number, FIP, is his Fielding Indpendant ERA, which is a far better predictor of how a pitcher is going to pitch going forward than his normal ERA.
Here are his totals for those 8 starts, by the way:
IP H R ER HR BB K BB/BF K/BF GB FB FIP 58 55 22 22 4 10 31 0.04 0.14 79 71 3.54
Walking just four percent of the batters he faces is outstanding. Striking out 14 percent is not outstanding. It’s pretty mediocre, but when coupled with a low walk rate, it can be effective.
I included his GB/FB numbers in the monthly totals as well, because there’s an important data point missing from the game logs. Pineiro has allowed 4 home runs in his last 8 starts, a terrific number, which helps keep his Fielding Independant ERA low. But allowing 4 home runs on 71 flyballs is almost certainly not a repeatable skill; Ron Shandler’s research, confirmed by the Hardball Times, has shown that most pitchers give up home runs on around 11 percent of their flyballs. Pineiro, during his 8 start stretch, has given up home runs on 5 percent of his flyballs. That’s not going to continue. If we added 3 more home runs to his total from his last 8 starts, normalizing for an average HR/flyball rate, his FIP would be 4.22 instead of 3.54. 4.22 isn’t bad. That’s basically 2005 Jamie Moyer. But it’s certainly not dominating.
Joel Pineiro is not “back”. He’s not pitching anything like he was in 2002 or 2003, though his singular start against the Yankees was legitimately terrific. He has basically turned himself into Ryan Franklin, a contact strike-throwing machine who can piece together some good starts when the ball stays in the yard. By nature, these pitchers are wildly inconsistent, because they depend on the opposing hitters to get themselves out.
Joel Pineiro, for his last 8 starts, has been a huge, huge upgrade over the Joel Pineiro we had through the end of July. If he continues to pitch using this strikes-only style, he can help the club, and he might even justify his contract next year. But the reality is that the Joel Pineiro of several years ago is gone forever. This guy isn’t that pitcher. Accept him for what he is, not what we would like him to be.