Game 139, Athletics at Mariners
King Felix vs. AJ Griffin, 7:10pm
The A’s arrive at a crucial time in their season, as their out-of-nowhere playoff chances ha been weakened recently by a three-game sweep by the Angels and the loss (due to a horrific injury) of their best starting pitcher*. According to Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds report, their playoff chances have dropped over 15% in the past week, and have dropped below 50%. Things aren’t quite as dire at CoolStandings, but the combination of the Rangers righting their ship and Orioles doing whatever it is that the Orioles are doing means first that the A’s don’t have much of a shot at the division and second that the Wild Card race is going to be tough. They’ve got a tough schedule to play the rest of the way, and their wild-card rivals have advantages like “playing in the AL Central” or “money” or both. But the A’s remain, somehow, in a good position. How’d they get to this point?
In a recent interview, A’s Assistant GM David Forst talked about his club’s 2012 season as being a “perfect storm.” This makes those of us who saw them as a near-certain last-place team feel better, but it’s quite remarkable the degree to which the A’s have had a signature success to point to from basically every segment of the enterprise. The trades of Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill signalled a rebuild, but their pro scouting department was able to find good value in players like Tommy Milone and Jarrod Parker. A trade that received a bit less attention – closer Andrew Bailey and 4th OF Ryan Sweeney for Josh Reddick and prospects – may have been the most important. An offense that looked to require a career year from Coco Crisp to avoid 2010 Mariners-level impotence now has a guy who’s put up 4.2 WAR and is closing in on 30 HRs. To back that up, the amateur scouting department came out of nowhere to give Cuban Yoenis Cespedes an unthinkable-for-the-A’s amount of money, and have watched as the OF has put up a .280/.348/.491 line in a tough place to hit. The A’s offense is by no means good, but without these two guys – both of whom weren’t on the payroll in early 2012 – the A’s really may have been as bad as recent M’s offenses. Finally, a player development system (that has watched Chris Carter, Michael Taylor, Landon Powell, Josh Donaldson, Adrian Cardenas, Michael Choice, Grant Green and more stall out) helped bring two unknown, late-round draft picks to the major leagues: Dan Straily and tonight’s starter, AJ Griffin.
Griffin was drafted in the 13th round of the 2010 draft, out of the University of San Diego. He signed quickly enough to get several appearances that year in the low-minors as a reliever. Moved to the rotation in 2011, he laid waste to multiple levels before tiring in AA. This year, the Texas League proved to be no challenge, and after ten good starts in AAA, he was up with the A’s, where he now stands with a 4-0 record and a gaudy RA. If it wasn’t for Dan Straily’s story – a 24th rounder who led the minors in strikeouts before moving up to Oakland – Griffin may be the best “who is that?” prospect story of the year.
So did he gain velocity in pro ball? Does he throw 95 with movement? Well, no. Like Tigers prospect Drew Smyly, Griffin gets the most out of a slightly overhand delivery that gives his 89-91mph fastball a lot of vertical movement. His FB simply doesn’t drop the way others do, and hitters seem to have had problems with that, and so like a lot of similar pitchers, from Smyly this year to Josh Collmenter last year, Griffin’s transition to the majors has been pretty smooth. He also has a slider/cutter/slutter pitch that he throws to righties, a change-up that he reserves almost exclusively for lefties, and a big, slow curve-ball that he uses as a put-away pitch when he’s ahead. He gets a good number of grounders with his breaking/offspeed stuff, but his fastball’s a fly-ball pitch. On the other hand, it also generates an above-average number of pop-ups. Watching him face Brendan Ryan might be a bit frustrating.
The combination of his fastball and what I can only guess is a very good change-up is his interesting platoon splits. So far in the majors, lefties have only a .209 wOBA against him, compared to righties .237 (his BABIP so far has been absurdly low). The sample’s small, of course, but it essentially matches what he did in AAA – he dominated lefties and battled righties to a draw. In fairness, his splits were more traditional in 2011, but his career numbers are still slightly better against lefties. If there was one pitcher where you wouldn’t use a strict platoon approach when facing, that would be Scott Feldman. But if you had a SECOND choice, it might be Griffin. Don’t be afraid to use Casper Wells, M’s!
Felix may have extra motivation after his last, frustrating inning against the Angels. He’s familiar with the A’s, and he’s in his home park, so here’s hoping for a return to royal form. The line-up behind him includes Luis Jimenez, who’s making his first MLB start after 13 years in everything from the affiliated minors, to Japan, to a semi-pro league near his home town. Congratulations, Luis.
1: Ackley
2: Gutierrez
3: Seager
4: Jaso (C)
5: Saunders
6: Smoak
7: Thames
8: Jimenez (DH)
9: Ryan
SP: King Felix
That’s a pretty lefty-heavy line-up right there, though it’s good to see Gutierrez back in the line-up for however long he’s able to go.
*: Get well soon, Brandon McCarthy – the funniest athlete on twitter, and one of the most engaging, thoughtful and insightful pitchers in baseball.
Too Much of the Same Thing
Not counting Carlos Peguero — because, actual presence on the roster or not, he’s not a Major League player — the Mariners currently have five outfielders on their big league roster: Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez, Casper Wells, Trayvon Robinson, and Eric Thames. On one hand, it’s a balanced bunch, as there’s two left-handed hitters, two right-handed hitters, and a switch-hitter. On the other hand, there’s not much balance at all, because the team has only two types of players in the OF, just with multiple versions of each.
Here’s the 2010-2012 core stats for the five active outfielders on the roster.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casper Wells | 599 | 7% | 27% | 0.188 | 0.307 |
| Eric Thames | 658 | 6% | 24% | 0.180 | 0.312 |
| Michael Saunders | 965 | 8% | 26% | 0.145 | 0.271 |
| Trayvon Robinson | 272 | 7% | 32% | 0.121 | 0.327 |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 1053 | 7% | 20% | 0.100 | 0.287 |
Wells, Thames, and Saunders are all basically the same type of hitter – low contact guys who don’t many walks and thus need to hit for significant power to justify their spot in the line-up. They’re always going to be low-OBP players because of their approach at the plate and their problems putting the bat on the ball. Saunders and Wells are better versions of this player type because they can hold down center field and play all three OF spots, while Thames lack of range and moderate offensive abilities make him more of a bench guy.
Then, on the other end of the offensive spectrum, you have Gutierrez and Robinson, who have to compensate for their lack of power by doing other things. Guti obviously plays incredible defense, so he’s got value on those rare days when he can actually stay on the field. Robinson is essentially Guti without defense and with even worse contact rates, which is why I don’t buy him as a Major League player. He doesn’t hit well enough to be a starter and he can only play left field because of his absurdly weak arm, so he doesn’t really fit in as a fourth outfielder either. While I get that he’s the flavor of the week, he’s also the worst player of the bunch, and not someone that should be in the organization’s future plans.
Realistically, the only one of these guys you can look at as an everyday guy going forward is Saunders, and even he’s a bit of a fringe starter. Wells and Thames are both decent enough platoon options, and you could probably get away with platooning them in right field next year if you had center and left locked up with players you could count on, but the Mariners don’t have that. Gutierrez remains a complete wild card, as they simply cannot count on him being able to play on any given day. From a talent standpoint, he’s still the team’s best OF, but from a health standpoint, he’s simply too unreliable to depend on. So, if you build out a roster that includes Gutierrez as one of your OFs, you need to have three other capable starting OFs around him. And, if you’re already carrying Saunders, Thames, and Wells, you only have two spots covered despite taking up three roster spots.
So, in reality, the Mariners are either going to have to carry five full-time outfielders next year, or they’re going to have dispense with one of the job-sharing situations and bring in a full-time player who can play everyday. If, for instance, the team brought in a full time corner outfielder, a three-way rotation of Saunders, Gutierrez, and Wells sharing two jobs is workable, as long as the organization can convince Eric Wedge to stop benching Wells every time he goes into a slump anyway.
And, really, it’d be nice if the new guy wasn’t cut from these same two cloths that the organization has been trying to carve an outfield out of. The team has run through a ton of low contact guys in the last few years, and hopefully by now is realizing that these kinds of players have too many flaws to be everyday starters. Likewise, if you’re going to get a low-power outfielder, he better either be able to play really good defense at all three outfield spots and be durable enough to play everyday.
Right now, the Mariners have five outfielders, three of whom are best utilized as role players and one of whom probably doesn’t even have the skills to pull that off. That kind of roster construction isn’t going to work next year. If you’re penciling Michael Saunders into one job — no matter what spot it is, really — and Franklin Gutierrez in for a roster spot in some form, then the only way to put together a good outfield in 2013 is to bring in a full-time, everyday, guy who can play all nine innings no matter who the other pitcher is.
That means that the organization is going to have to make some calls on these guys this winter. With any luck, someone else will want to hope Trayvon Robinson either finds some power or is interested in using him to test out a new bionic arm replacement, and they can ship him off for something useful, as he doesn’t really fit into any kind of need the team has for 2013. The remaining four could fit on the roster as long as the team acquired another full-time outfielder to hold down one spot and Thames was also utilized as a reserve 1B/DH type, allowing him to provide a little more depth than simply serving as another part-time OF.
Right now, though, the pieces don’t fit. Guti’s contract and talent make it worth giving him one more chance to try and stay healthy, but you can’t go into 2013 with Saunders in one spot, Guti in another, and then Thames/Wells/Robinson fighting over one the remaining spot. There’s just not a productive enough player in the group to make that work, and the team would be surrendering too much value in giving three roster spots to guys who come with so much risk.
There’s going to be a lot of focus on the M’s getting “a big bat” this winter. In reality, their biggest need is actually just for one good everyday outfielder. If they can find a +3 win OF who can play 150+ games next year, that will free the team up to take risks on Saunders and Gutierrez. Without that guy, though, this current group of outfielders just doesn’t work.
Game 138, Red Sox at Mariners
Kevin Millwood vs. Aaron Cook, 7:10pm
This is not a match-up anyone’s marked their calendar to watch. Millwood’s been a steady presence in the rotation, and his results have been mediocre to good- he’s already over 2 WAR using FIP, and even going by RA/9, he’s at about 1 win, which isn’t bad for a cheap #5 starter. But given his lack of a future with the club and his so-so stuff, he’s not a guy who commands attention.
Aaron Cook’s stuff is worse, and since shutting out the M’s on 2 hits in late June, he’s thrown 54 sub-replacement level innings for the Red Sox, with an RA near 7, and 11 walks and 9 HRs against 9 Ks. He was a great story for everyone but M’s fans in July; from his recall on 6/24 through 7/21 (selective endpoints alert!), he threw 33 1/3 bizarrely effective innings, including a K rate that often threatened to go negative. He struck out a grand total of 3 batters in that stretch, with 2 of them coming in the shutout in Safeco. Dave tweeted this last night about Blake Beavan, but it’s even more true of Cook: “Pitch to contact always sounds like such a good plan until you see what contact can look like.” Remember that Aaron Cook’s K rate is *one-third of Beavan’s.*
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Aaron Cook commands a modicum of attention at this point. It was a little over one year ago that I wrote this about Anthony Vasquez, and how he had the opportunity to finish a season with more HRs allowed than strikeouts. As it turned out, he ended the year with 13 of each – saving him from becoming the first Mariner since Glenn Abbott and the first pitcher with more HRs than Ks with a minimum of 10 HRs allowed since the early 1930s. Part of this was clearly just the tiny sample – perhaps because of his extreme gopheritis, Vasquez didn’t get 30 innings with the M’s in 2011. So imagine my surprise that in the very next season , Aaron Cook is making a serious run at history here. The way he’s gotten to this point is completely different to Vasquez; he’s been far stingier with the HR, but his absurd – literally, there’s no other response to a K% under 4% than laughter – K rate means his strikeouts and HRs are just about even. What’s more, he’s allowed 12 walks, which means he’s got a shot at ending a year with something like 80 innings pitched in which he gives up more HRs AND WALKS than strikeouts. This is remarkable. Cook’s monomaniacal approach makes up in fascination what it lacks in artistry or beauty.
Today’s line-up features only one of the two M’s to strike out against Cook in June: Jesus Montero. Of course, Montero’s been a far better hitter since the break, so here’s hoping he gets the HR to bring Cook’s HRs/Ks into equilibrium. For reference, Chone Figgins was the other Mariner batter to K against Cook, which is about as perfect a summation of Figgins’ 2012 season as you can get.
1: Ackley
2: Robinson
3: Seager
4: Jaso (C)
5: Montero (DH)
6: Thames
7: Carp
8: Wells
9: Ryan
SP: Kevin Millwood
In the minors, Victor Sanchez got roughed up last night, and the Aquasox are a game away from elimination.
Brandon Maurer was named the Southern League’s most outstanding pitcher of 2012, which is amazing given his competition included James Paxton, Danny Hultzen, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Taijuan Walker and even some pitchers who didn’t play for Jackson or Mobile. The former 23rd-round pick went 9-2 with a FIP just over 3. Paxton and Walker were close in innings-pitched, but Walker ended the regular season with a FIP over 4, and Paxton’s was a bit higher than Maurer’s as well.
The SL playoffs start tomorrow, and as of right now, the rotation will go Paxton, Gilheeney, Walker, Fernandez, Garrison. Bold move, Jackson: so overconfident that you don’t even give the most outstanding pitcher a start in the playoff series? I hope Maurer can slot in for someone during the series, but that’s the rotation the Generals have announced.
Clinton begins their playoff series in the Midwest League this evening, where they host the Beloit Snappers. Right-hander Robert Shore starts tonight against uberprospect Miguel Sano and Beloit.
On the other end of the spectrum, Danny Hultzen ended his season on a sour note, with another 5 walks against Fresno back on Monday. In his last three starts of the year, Hultzen went 7 1/3 innings, and gave up 12 runs on 10 hits and a ghastly 14 walks. 14! In all, he walked 43 batters in his 48 2/3 AAA innings, which produced a FIP of 4.29 despite a good strikeout rate. He was probably the most confounding prospect I’ve seen. He clearly had stretches of his AA self – great command, very good change-up, better than average velocity – but they were punctuated with total lapses in control. This was not a case of a guy missing his spots, or giving up one walk most innings. He either set down the side with ease, or he walked three in a row. The suddenness of these lapses, and the suddenness with which they disappeared, was like nothing I’ve seen. I’m no scout, but I couldn’t discern anything in his mechanics that would explain it. There was some chatter in late August that he might get called up to make a start or two with the M’s this month, and as a result, the M’s started increasing his pitch counts after dropping them in late July. And then, with a lot of the M’s brass watching (including Tom McNamara, who’s hopefully identified a mechanical flaw or two), he walked four and gave up four runs in 2/3 of an inning against Las Vegas. Thus, the feel-good story is Luis Jimenez and not how the M’s #2 draft pick ‘solved’ his issues and made his MLB debut.
Game 137, Red Sox at Mariners
Blake Beavan vs. Jon Lester, 7:10pm
Puyallup native Jon Lester’s season is a microcosm for the Sox’ agonizing 2012 campaign. He came into 2012 looking to compete for a Cy Young after a somewhat disappointing 2011, just as the Red Sox attempted to put the misery of the last day of 2011 (and the departure of their manager and GM) behind them. While Lester’s FIP/xFIP have been relatively consistent, a drop in Ks and an increase in HRs have left him with an ERA that produces a below-replacement level rWAR. I’m not going to suggest that you look at the ERA and ignore the FIP, but it’s troubling that his K rate has dropped so markedly – he was over 26% for two full years, and now he’s down at 19.6%. This, coupled with a six-start run that was jaw-droppingly bad, has led to some speculation that he’s pitching hurt.
He’s quieted that talk with two brilliant outings in mid-August, but his last two starts have been a mixed bag. Lester’s K rates are down for lefties and righties, but they’ve fallen fast against right-handers. In his great 2009-2010 seasons, he fanned a roughly equal percentage of lefties and righties (around 26%), as he had a great change-up to go with his curve ball. He’s fanning less lefties, but his K rate to righties has plummeted to 18%. While a lot of attention’s focused on his cutter usage, his fastball and change aren’t working the way they once did to right-handers.
The M’s counter with Blake Beavan, who can only imagine what a 19% K% in the majors might be like, not to mention having everyone wonder if you’re OK because you’re only striking out 7 per 9.
Dave told you all about the 7 players the M’s added from the Tacoma roster, but an 8th Rainier will be at the game tonight too – Catcher Guillermo Quiroz was traded to Boston and will presumably be in uniform for tonight’s game. The M’s appeared to like his pitch-calling, but there was obviously no space for him on an M’s team that’s already carrying three catchers.
The line-up is about as righty-heavy as it could be, save for swapping Liddi in for Seager. The good side is that Casper Wells gets the start in his first game back from AAA, and the down side is that Olivo catches. In this game, against this pitcher, I think you could make a case that starting Olivo isn’t the worst move, but life’s too short to debate things like that for long given that neither of these teams is going anywhere this year. The Red Sox are going nowhere this year. That’s amazing, and the source of rich, nourishing schadenfreude.
1: Ackley
2: Gutierrez
3: Seager
4: Montero (DH)
5: Smoak
6: Olivo (C)
7: Robinson
8: Wells
9: Ryan
SP: Beavan
Victor Sanchez pitches for Everett tonight in the Northwest League playoffs. If you’re in the north end, or if you want to see an interesting young pitcher, go see the AquaSox game tonight.
M’s Add Seven More From Tacoma
The Mariners completed their September call-ups today, adding seven more guys to the roster, including a couple of surprises. There were four that were obvious, as they were all up with the big team for significant stretches earlier in the year: Mike Carp, Casper Wells, Shawn Kelley, and Alex Liddi. Hector Noesi was slightly less obvious, since he wasn’t very good down in Tacoma after they optioned him, but he does give them another arm to serve as a long man in case of a blowout or extra inning game, so even if he doesn’t pitch much, bringing him back makes some sense.
The two surprises are Carlos Triunfel, who had another lousy year and has lost most of his prospect status at this point, and Luis Jimenez, who is 30-years-old and never really had any to begin with.
Triunfel has some natural talent but hasn’t improved one bit in the last five years, leaving him as a guy who gets significantly less from his tools than he should. I guess with Munenori Kawasaki as the only backup SS on the roster, they see Triunfel providing some depth there, and he was already on the 40-man, so might as well call him up, but he shouldn’t play much if it all, and he isn’t really deserving of the call. In fact, I’d expect him to be removed from the 40-man this winter when the organization needs some roster spots for new additions, so this may be his only month in Seattle when all is said and done.
Jimenez is the exact opposite story, as he has all the athletic ability of Bill the Beerman, and approximately the same kind of physique to boot. Jimenez is a well traveled minor league lifer, and while he was decent for the Rainiers, he didn’t exactly destroy the PCL in the way that makes you think that maybe there’s something that scouts have missed. He’s the definition of a AAAA player, and since he wasn’t on the 40 man roster, I’m a bit surprised the team is calling him up.
However, the cost of adding him wasn’t all that significant, as they DFA’d Johermyn Chavez to clear a spot for Jimenez on the roster. Chavez was the other guy in the Brandon Morrow-Brandon League Challenge Trade that was ill-advised at the time and doesn’t look any better now, and he’s not a Major League player that the organization is going to miss, if anyone actually wants to claim him on waivers. In all likelihood, Chavez will clear and the end result will be no different for the team. Jimenez will probably be a fan favorite simply due to his size and the possibility that he could run into a fastball and hit it really far, but he’s not someone you should be penciling into the organization’s future. He’ll almost certainly be removed from the 40 man after the season ends, and this will be his one cup of coffee in the Majors that he’ll tell his grandkids about someday. It’s a good story, and hooray for him getting that chance to live the life of a big leaguer, but in terms of his future with the organization, keep your expectations low.
Minor League Wrap (8/27-9/3/12)
This is the final wrap of the year and also the last wrap I intend to do. As others before me, I have discovered that sports blogging as a hobby and grad school aren’t really reconcilable. I could conceivably stagger it out to another couple of years, but from my own standpoint, I’d rather bail before the extent of my half-assery becomes apparent and instead devote my five months of writing energy to, I don’t know, writing. I regard this largely as typing. Lots of typing. Anyway, I’ll still be around the Mariners internet scene and presumably will throw out an article every now and then, but my contributions will be without set timetable or specific definition.
Let’s have a links run, shall we? You didn’t hear about the Arizona Fall League rosters here because I posted that at Lookout Landing and don’t have anything additional to add. John Sickels decided to add to his Mariners focus by determining that IF Dan Paolini was worth writing about. The Baseball America notebook that focuses on the Mariners spotlighted something new to me, in that it talked about RHRP Matt Brazis who retired twenty-nine in a row at some point during this season. Usually they only talk about things I’ve long since been familiar with, so this is fun! Also at BA, Victor Sanchez made the last Prospect Hot Sheet of the year , with Hultzen as not-so hot, and RF Gabriel Guerrero as a helium watch, and there’s news that we’ve signed left-handed hitting Dominican third baseman Leurys Vargas for $400k. They talk about his bat speed and power as being selling points. This may or may not be the last you hear of him.
There are also league honors being announced. For example, the Southern League Postseason All-Star Team gives us a lot to think about, like Jesus Sucre being the catcher pick and Brandon Maurer being the right-handed starter selection, which can only mean that they don’t accept partial seasons oh wait Carter Capps is the reliever. Welp. The equivalent California League Post-Season All-Star Roster not only has Hicks at catcher, Landry in the outfield, Proscia as utility (whaaaat), and Elias as one of the pitchers, but has Grifol as Manager of the Year and Roy Howell as coach of the year. And they offer a Rookie of the Year Award? How many good players repeat the Cal League? The Northwest League roster featured a number of Aquasox, like Kivlehan at third AND as the league’s MVP, Zunino at catcher, and Ard as both first baseman and designated hitter which means he’s twice the prospect he once was, or two identical halves of the same prospect, or nothing has changed but it’s a nice honor. Boise has a player who is hitting .356/.435/.490, but as it turns out, no one likes him. On the Appalachian League roster, the picks were obviously C Tyler Marlette and OF Dario Pizzano. I also heard that CF Jesus Ugueto was the MVP of the VSL, but it’s only four teams now and he’s been around for four years, so any excitement you have is probably unwarranted.
And playoffs? Jackson starts a series against Chattanooga on Thursday, High Desert gets a bye until the wild cards resolve, which is Saturday I think, Clinton gets to start their series against Beloit on Wednesday, and Everett lost on Monday against Vancouver after they got one-hit. It continues, in Everett, tonight and hopefully tomorrow.
To the jump!
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Jason Vargas: The Model of Consistency
After another terrific performance at Safeco yesterday, Jason Vargas‘ traditional numbers make it appear as if he’s having a career year. After all, he’s set a career high with 14 wins, is almost certainly going to set a personal best in innings pitched, and with a few more solid outings, he could even post the best ERA of his career. While his season will be described as a breakout by some, his last four years are actually a case-study in amazing consistency. In the core statistics that measure the things most under a pitcher’s control, Vargas’ numbers are strikingly similar from year to year.
| Season | IP | BB% | K% | GB% | xFIP- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 184.2 | 6.3% | 15.5% | 40.7% | 106 |
| 2011 | 201.0 | 6.9% | 15.3% | 36.4% | 110 |
| 2010 | 192.2 | 6.7% | 14.3% | 36.3% | 110 |
| 2009 | 91.2 | 6.2% | 14.0% | 36.6% | 104 |
Yes, if you just look at the raw stats, his strikeout rate and ground ball rate are both up, which looks like good news. But strikeouts are up all across baseball, and relative to league average, Vargas’ strikeout rate is actually down slightly from last year, and pretty much in line with his career norms.
Source: FanGraphs — Jason Vargas
Basically, Vargas is this year what he has always been – a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter who gets a large benefit from Safeco Field, and whose results fluctuate based on factors that he doesn’t have total control over.
Interestingly, the key to Vargas’ success the last two years – home run prevention – has mostly escaped him this year, as he’s posting a 13.5% HR/FB rate, the highest mark he’s put up since joining the Mariners. Fly ball lefties in Safeco don’t generally have home run problems, but Vargas has been especially homer prone on the road this year, making up for — and then some — the home run suppressing abilities of his home park. Instead, he’s getting a lot of outs on balls in play, which is something he can likely continue at a better than average rate, but probably not at the .253 BABIP he’s put up this year. So, while we should expect him to get a positive bounce from his HR/FB decreasing in the future, the negative regression in his BABIP should counteract most of that, leaving us with a guy whose results actually do tell the story of what Jason Vargas can probably do as long as Safeco remains configured as it is now and he keeps pitching for the Mariners.
So, now the real question for the Mariners will be what they should do with Vargas this winter. He’s got one final crack at arbitration, and based on the numbers he’s putting up, a salary between $7-$8 million for 2013 should be expected. Is Vargas worth $8 million to the Mariners? Probably, given how well his skills line up with Safeco’s dimensions and the fact that the team’s better pitching prospects don’t appear to be big league ready to start 2013. Based just on those facts, offering Vargas arbitration and finding room for his raise in the budget would seem like the right move.
However, pitchers like Vargas don’t do very well in free agency. In fact, the closest thing in baseball to Jason Vargas — Joe Saunders — was in this exact same position a year ago, and he found out just how poorly the market treats pitchers with this skillset.
Last year, Saunders threw 212 innings for the D’Backs and posted an ERA- of 92, meaning that Arizona prevented runs at a clip of 8% better than average while he was on the hill. His peripherals didn’t match the ERA, though, and as a soft-tossing lefty who relied heavily on hit prevention for his results, the D’Backs decided that he wasn’t worth the raise he’d get in arbitration and chose to non-tender him instead. Saunders had made $5.5 million in 2010, so he was in line for something like that $8 million payday we’re projecting for Vargas, and Arizona bet that he wouldn’t get that much in free agency.
They were right. While Saunders hunted for a multi-year deal based on his strong IP and ERA totals, Major League teams decided that he wasn’t a guy they wanted to lock up long term, and he ended up re-signing with Arizona for $6 million, just a $500,000 raise over what he made before he had his “career year”. Saunders predictably regressed this year, and when the D’Backs realized that he wasn’t doing much for them, they shipped him to Baltimore after he cleared waivers.
It wasn’t just Saunders either. The Pirates bought out Paul Maholm‘s $9.75 million option, letting him hit free agency instead after he threw 162 innings with a 97 ERA-. He signed for $5 million for 2012, and gave the Cubs a team option on his 2013 season for $6.5 million that seems likely to be exercised now that he’s had an even better season than he did a year ago. And finally, Bruce Chen (155 IP, 92 ERA-) got $8 million over two years from the Royals with basically the exact same skillset as Vargas.
The market for these kinds of decent ERA/mediocre FIP no-stuff lefties was pretty dry last year, and while the new TV contracts are likely to drive some inflation again this winter, it seems unlikely that Major League teams are going to suddenly crave these kinds of pitchers. In general, an 88 MPH fastball and a good change-up gets you skepticism, and when you throw in Vargas’ extreme home/road splits, that skepticism has some data behind it.
I guarantee you that Vargas and his agent both know the huge gap in performance between his numbers in Seattle and not-Seattle, and I’m certain that his agent is going to look at these same comparisons from a year ago and realize that a non-tender is still a possibility, even though Vargas is superficially having the best year of his career. So, perhaps the best path for everyone here is to just skip arbitration entirely and make a deal that keeps Vargas in Seattle at a price that isn’t a huge raise over what he’s currently making.
For me, that right price is something like $12 million over two years. That’s what Chris Capuano got from the Dodgers in free agency last winter, and that’s the kind of contract the M’s could use to entice other soft-tossing lefties who might be interested in enhancing their numbers by coming to pitch in Safeco Field. If Vargas wanted to aim higher than that, or he was dead set on getting something closer to the $8 million 2013 salary he’d earn in arbitration, then the team could simply use their non-tender option and let him see just what the market is for a pitcher with a 4.84 ERA on the road this year.
Vargas is perfect for Safeco, and Safeco is perfect for Vargas. It’s a match that should continue, but the M’s don’t need to pay a premium to keep him around. Despite his terrific performances, the team has the leverage here, as they can find another strike-throwing, pitch-to-contact, low-velocity hurler easier than he can find another park where his fly balls won’t go sailing over the wall so often.
I’d like to see the M’s keep Jason Vargas around. History suggests that they don’t have to overpay him to do it, though. Don’t be fooled by the wins and the ERA – Vargas is the same guy he always has been, and these types of pitchers don’t require big contracts.
Game 134, Angels at Mariners
Hernandez vs Santana, 1:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day, and also Happy Fox Blackout Rules So Hardly Anyone Can Watch This Day! MLB’s deal with Fox has made baseball on Saturdays suck.
In news, the M’s called up Erasmo Ramirez and Carlos Peguero today, and will make a few more moves when Tacoma’s season ends on Monday. Expect Casper Wells, Shawn Kelley, and Mike Carp to return, and maybe Alex Liddi if they want another third base option besides Chone Figgins on the bench. Hector Noesi is also a possibility, but given how poorly his season has gone in Tacoma, it might be best to just shut him down and tell him to start over again next spring.
Ackley, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Seager, 3B
Jaso, C
Montero, DH
Thames, RF
Smoak, 1B
Robinson, LF
Ryan, SS
Update: With a holiday weekend and beautiful weather in Seattle, posting may be a little bit light. Feel free to continue using this game thread for Sunday and maybe Monday against the Red Sox, too.
Game 133, Angels at Mariners
Haren vs Millwood, 7:10 pm.
The Mariners aren’t going to the playoffs this year, but they just might be able to ensure that the Angels aren’t either. Anaheim is currently 3 1/2 games behind Baltimore for the second wild card spot, and their September schedule is brutal – after they leave Seattle, they get three against Detroit and four against Oakland. They finish up the season with three against KC (okay, so it’s not all hard work) six against Texas, three against Chicago, and six more against the Mariners. Odds are good they’re not going to be able to make up a lot of ground playing teams like the Rangers, A’s, White Sox, and Tigers, so they need to play really well against Seattle and KC. If the M’s win a bunch of these games against the Angels, there’s a good chance they can play spoilers, and ensure that year one of the Albert Pujols Era ends in disappointment.
In terms of the line-up, Saunders is back in the line-up, and has moved to RF to accommodate Guti’s return to CF, which leaves LF for just one of Thames and Robinson. For at least night one, Wedge went with Robinson. Here’s hoping that’s not a sign of things to come, because Thames is a useful player against right-handers, and Robinson is a fifth outfielder if we’re lucky.
Ackely, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Seager, 3B
Jaso, DH
Montero, C
Saunders, RF
Smoak, 1B
Robinson, LF
Ryan, SS
Game 132, Mariners at Twins
Duensing vs Beavan, 10:05 am.
Morning baseball featuring two of the least interesting pitchers in the sport. Feel the excitement.
Ackley, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Seager, 3B
Montero, C
Smoak, 1B
Olivo, DH
Robinson, LF
Thames, RF
Ryan, SS