Game 39, Mariners at Indians
Hernandez vs Jimenez, 4:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
Saunders moves up… you know what, screw it. The line-up doesn’t matter. All this time being spent talking about batting order is just a giant waste of time. Batting order has a very small impact on a team’s performance over the course of the season. It just isn’t worth all this attention.
Ackley, 2B
Saunders, CF
Ichiro, RF
Montero, C
Seager, DH
Smoak, 1B
Liddi, 3B
Figgins, LF
Ryan, SS
Game 38, Mariners at Red Sox
Beavan vs Beckett, 1:05 pm.
Josh Beckett is struggling mightily, and his velocity is down significantly, so this match-up isn’t quite as bad for the Mariners as the names suggest. Beavan probably can’t keep the Red Sox offense down by himself, though, so the offense is going to have to get to Beckett or the Red Sox fairly shaky bullpen.
Munenori Kawasaki getting his second straight start against a right-hander with Brendan Ryan back on the bench. He played the last few days against lefties, but clearly, his playing time is in jeopardy. If the M’s had a better option, okay, but Kawasaki isn’t it. It will be interesting to see how how this situation plays out, as there are several teams in the market for a decent veteran shortstop, and even with his lack of offense this year, his price tag and his defense would make him a tradeable piece. If Wedge is ready to give up on Ryan as his regular shortstop (and the front office isn’t prepared to overrule him on that decision), a trade might end up being the best option. Ryan’s glove is good enough that he should be playing most days, but given his age and injury issues, he’s probably not a long term solution. If a team like the Brewers (who just lost Alex Gonzalez for the season) came calling, Jack should probably see what they’re offering. There’s no real internal options to take over on a regular basis, but the Mariners are in a better position to punt production from shortstop than a legitimate contender, so if they have to go with some waiver claim/AAA guy for the rest of the year, it’s not the end of the world.
Also, Jaso back in the #2 spot in the order. Huzzah. Glad to see this has stuck, at least in the short term. Kudos to Wedge for making this move.
Ackley, 2B
Jaso, C
Ichiro, RF
Montero, DH
Seager, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Carp, LF
Saunders, CF
Kawasaki, SS
RISP Hitting
So, recently, Eric Wedge has made news by talking about how Ichiro isn’t producing enough out of the three hole, despite the fact that he’s been one of the team’s best hitters to date. In order to keep this narrative going in the face of factual evidence to the contrary, people have started to point out Ichiro’s batting line with runners in scoring position, because of course we should be making judgments about a guy based on 39 plate appearances.
Anyway, it’s true that Ichiro hasn’t been great with RISP this year. Here’s how his situational splits break down:
Bases Empty: .298/.330/.393, .318 wOBA
Men On Base: .281/.338/.391, .314 wOBA
RISP: .206/.282/.324, .257 wOBA
Now, here are Ichiro’s career situational split numbers:
Bases Empty: .326/.356/.427, .344 wOBA
Men On Base: .316/.392/.396, .330 wOBA
RISP: .317/.424/394, .331 wOBA
You can look at 39 plate appearances and decide that Ichiro can’t hit with men in scoring position, or you can look at 1,500 plate appearances and realize that he can. It’s really up to you, but what kind of conclusion you draw says a lot about your understanding of how the game actually works. People extrapolating from Ichiro’s 2012 RISP numbers either don’t have a grasp of how to actually use numbers or they’re pushing a predetermined agenda and won’t let facts get in their way. In some cases, both statements might be true.
But, hey, if you insist that 2012 situational data is meaningful, here’s some other names of guys who aren’t fit to hit in the middle of a batting order based on their RISP data to date:
Jose Bautista: .203 wOBA
Justin Upton: .209 wOBA
B.J. Upton: .215 wOBA
Jesus Montero: .229 wOBA
Troy Tulowitzki: .234 wOBA
Travis Hafner: .235 wOBA
Justin Morneau: .259 wOBA
Robinson Cano: .261 wOBA
Media members – you don’t have to believe whatever Eric Wedge tells you. He’s wrong an awful lot. Think for yourself, look up the facts, and don’t just repeat his ramblings.
Another Fun Fact
Three teams decided to spend big money in free agency this winter, showing their “dedication to winning”, their “commitment to their fans”, and their “willingness to do what it takes”. These teams showed that those fools who care about budgets and contracts are just pawns who don’t understand what baseball is really all about. Those teams are the real winners in baseball.
Except, you know, on the field, where those teams – the Angels, Tigers, and Marlins – have combined for a 50-56 record on the season, a .472 winning percentage.
It might come as a shock to some people, but lavish free agent spending really isn’t a magic formula for success. Who knew?
Game 37, Mariners at Red Sox
Vargas vs Lester, 4:05 pm.
It’s raining in Boston, as it is in much of the country today, so this game may or may not happen.
As for Jason Vargas, he gets a good test tonight against a pretty good line-up and a left field fence that is not that far from the plate. I like Vargas as a solid back-end starter, but don’t get too carried away with his early season numbers. Despite the increase in strikeouts, his contact rate is actually up over last year, and his strike percentage is down slightly, so odds are pretty good that the increase in strikeouts is just random variation and he’ll get back to something closer to his usual strikeout rate as the season goes on. As usual, he’s displaying some pretty significant home/road splits, as Safeco is the perfect spot for his skillset, but Fenway is a bit less suited to lefty fly ball guys, so this isn’t a great match-up for him. If the weather affects his command at all, this could go poorly.
In terms of the line-up, Smoak’s back up to the 5th spot in the order thanks to his offensive exploits in New York. Let’s hope he keeps showing signs of life. Ackley’s DH’ing again with Seager sliding over to second base and Liddi playing third, but don’t read too much into this, as the team is in the midst of a stretch of 20 straight games played, so you’ll likely see all the regulars get a turn through the DH spot over the next couple of weeks.
Ackley, DH
Wells, LF
Ichiro, RF
Montero, C
Smoak, 1B
Seager, 2B
Liddi, 3B
Saunders, CF
Ryan, SS
Minor League Wrap (5/7-13/12)
Baseball America’s first mock draft of the year has us taking C Mike Zunino because Buxton somehow goes second to the Twins. Discuss this entirely too much.
In this week, we have a walk-off grand slam, mention of a 27-game safely reached streak, possible breakouts from prospects that people have pinned a lot (too much?) of hopes on, the vagaries of splits, competent pitching in Tacoma (!!), a team going 2-4 while remaining in first place, and baseball baseball baseball baseball baseball.
To the jump!
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Game 36, Mariners at Yankees
Pettite vs. Millwood, 10 am
It would feel weird to me if I was looking at this and didn’t put a lineup up even if I don’t expect much posting traffic. In short, Pettite was out of baseball for a while, and then he came back fairly recently. The Mariners are sending their left-hander lineup to hit against him and haven’t had good results through three. No one has had a hit! Shouldn’t they have a scouting report on this guy? Unbelievable! But Millwood didn’t allow anything until the bottom of the third either so…. something. I don’t know. I anticipate silly home runs later.
2B Ackley
LF Wells
RF Ichiro!
C Montero
1B Smoak
3B Liddi
DH Carp
CF Saunders
SS Ryan
Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there.
Game 35, Mariners at Yankees
Noesi vs Hughes, 1:05 pm.
After his awful performance at the plate yesterday, you had to assume Brendan Ryan was going to be on the bench today. His bases loaded strikeout against Hiroki Kuroda was a disaster, not just because of the result but because of the pitches he decided to swing at. The final two swinging strikes were so far outside they probably would have hit a left-handed batter. Had he just gone up there with the bat on his shoulder, he very well might have drawn a walk. It was the kind of at-bat that gets you benched.
Of course, you could put together a pretty strong case that Ryan should have never been put in the #2 spot in the line-up to begin with, but I’d imagine those days are behind us, and we can probably just move on without complaining about another Eric Wedge decision that backfired. In fact, Wedge might just be running out his best line-up of the season today, as he’s gotten over his too-many-lefties-bunched-together phobia and promoted John Jaso to fill the #2 spot in the order. Given the current roster, this might be the exact line-up I’d run out there against a righty, minus swapping Ryan back in at short for Kawasaki. Let’s see more of this 1-8 line-up, please.
Ackley, 2B
Jaso, C
Ichiro, RF
Montero, DH
Seager, 3B
Carp, LF
Smoak, 1B
Saunders, CF
Kawasaki, SS
Game 34, Mariners at Yankees
King Felix vs. Hiroki Kuroda, 4:05 pm
The M’s open a three game set in the Bronx, where Felix has has dominated in the recent past. Blake Beavan threw warm-ups, and appears healthy, but he’s still been pushed back a bit and Kevin Millwood will move up to get the start on Sunday.
Today’s line-up is probably one of the better ones you’ll see against a right-handed starter like Kuroda:
1: Ackley (2B)
2: Ryan (SS)
3: Ichiro (RF)
4: Montero (C)
5: Seager (3B
6: Jaso (DH)
7: Smoak (1B)
8: Carp (LF)
9: Saunders (CF)
SP: Felix!
Justin Smoak’s still in the line-up, and the M’s have said they don’t want him in AAA as he’s got nothing left to prove there (career AAA OPS: .794. Career AAA SLG%: .414). That’s their choice, but they absolutely need to see what he’s doing against lefties. He’s now got one extra-base hit against a lefty since the all-star break in 2011, a solitary double off of Jerry Blevins. I agree that his 2012 batting stats are small sample, but his problems predate 2012.
Just to reiterate Dave’s point about Stephen Pryor: since hitting AA, Pryor has pitched 41 2/3 IP, given up 17 hits, walked 13 and fanned 56. That’s not bad.
Andrew Carraway was promoted from AA Jackson to AAA Tacoma and he’s getting the start tonight at Cheney Stadium at 7. Definitely not as heralded as his old AA rotation-mates, but he’s a good pitcher and might bring some stability to what’s been a ghastly pitching staff for the Rainiers.
Go M’s!
The M’s Should Sell Brandon League Soon
The Mariners are going to be sellers this year – that’s been obvious since day one. They’re rebuilding around young players, and they aren’t legitimate contenders, so guys who aren’t going to be part of the long term future here probably won’t spend the whole year in Seattle. The team has two obvious trading chips that other teams would likely be willing to give up something of value to obtain – Brandon League and Jason Vargas.
Vargas is pitching well and likely has helped his stock a little bit with his strong early performances, but at the same time, the Mariners aren’t really in a position where they should be looking to punt one of their two quality starting pitchers. Besides Felix, Vargas is the only guy in the rotation that isn’t a significant risk for a disaster start, and the team doesn’t have anyone who could step in and take his place without making the team significantly worse. Holding onto Vargas for another month or two in order to give Hultzen and Paxton more time to get their command in order is probably in everyone’s best interests, and another 5-10 strong starts could continue to help contenders see Vargas as a legitimate quality starter for the stretch run.
However, with Brandon League, the situation is quite a bit different. While his 2.25 ERA and 8 saves have retained his shiny Proven Closer label, he isn’t throwing the ball all that well right now. His trademark two-seam fastball last year averaged 96.4 MPH, and he regularly topped out between 96-98 with it. This year, his sinker is averaging 95.1 MPH, and he’s rarely cracking 96. As Felix is currently demonstrating, velocity isn’t everything, but League doesn’t have Felix’s off-speed stuff. He needs his fastball to help him get ahead of hitters so he can put them away with a splitter in the dirt, and he relies on the power sinker in order to generate a lot of ground balls.
Right now, League’s fastball isn’t helping him do either of those things. His GB% stands at just 46.8%, well below last year’s 57.1% mark and even further from his career 60.7% ground ball rate. He’s not trading grounders for swinging strikes, either, as opposing batters are making contact 83.2 percent of the time they swing, well above his 77.6 percent career rate. He hasn’t posted a contact rate this high since 2008 – the year he spent half the season in Triple-A and only threw 33 innings in the big leagues.
It’s still early, and we’re only dealing with 231 pitches, so all of this could just be a short blip that requires a small adjustment and League could get right back on track. However, League hasn’t had the kind of high profile meltdown that can come with these kinds of struggles and quickly erase a pitcher’s reputation for being a shutdown ninth inning guy. Within the first month of the season, we’ve already seen Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, and Javy Guerra demoted from the closer’s role, and a bunch of other teams are hunting for bullpen reinforcements because of the struggles of their own ninth inning guys. The line between being a Proven Closer and a heart-attack-waiting-to-happen is smaller than people are willing to admit. It wouldn’t take much for League to move from one category to the other, and with the way he’s throwing right now, it’s more likely than the Mariners should be comfortable with.
There’s a market for relief pitchers right now. Very few are for sale, and pretty much every contending club in baseball is shopping for bullpen help. The Padres just flipped Ernesto Frieri – an extreme flyball setup man who had made his living in the best pitcher’s park on the planet – for a couple of interesting pieces, and he’s not seen as an elite caliber reliever. If the Mariners made League available right now, they’d have significant leverage, and could probably garner a pretty solid return even without waiting until the July trading frenzy.
The other part of this coin is that, for the Mariners, League is easily expendable. Tom Wilhelmsen has been terrific in the 8th inning role, and he has both closer stuff and a legitimate future in this organization. Meanwhile, Steve Delbar has been a surprising revelation as a power setup man, running up a 20/3 K/BB ratio in 16 inning so far this season. Likewise, Shawn Kelley has looked strong since giving up the HR to Yoenis Cespedes in Japan, and his fastball is back in the 92-94 range, a good sign for his ability to handle the seventh or eighth inning if needed.
And, down on the farm, the Mariners have several power bullpen arms knocking on the door. Earlier in the week, they promoted Stephen Pryor from Jackson to Tacoma after he ran a 24/5 K/BB ratio in Double-A, and he’s whiffed five of the first 11 batters he’s faced in Triple-A since being challenged with better competition. Pryor’s fastball has been clocked in the 99-100 MPH range multiple times, and like Delebar and Wilhelmsen, his power fastball sets up hitters and he can put them away with a strong breaking ball. Pryor could easily step into the 6th-7th inning role while he gets his feet wet in the majors, and his stuff should allow him to transition to the big leagues with ease. Back in Jackson, 2011 third round pick Carter Capps is still blowing hitters away as well, and he could easily spend the second half of the year in Seattle.
Put simply, the Mariners don’t need Brandon League. Their bullpen will be just fine without him, and he’s a piece that they could extract a real return for, especially when other teams are shopping for bullpen help and few teams are selling. With League throwing in a way that suggests that he might not be able to keep getting easy saves against better opponents, it makes sense to move League sooner than later rather than risking a meltdown that could put his Proven Closer label at risk.
If I’m Jack Z, I’m making Brandon League available right now, and telling prospective bidders that I’m going to be aggressive in making a deal, so they should bring an offer that allows a deal to be completed in the next 3-5 days. The Mariners should strike while the iron is hot. The time to move League is now.