And my larger issue with the Morrow discussion
There’s been a huge amount of criticism of Dave (and my) writing on the Morrow-League trade for not having the same insight into the players that the front office does. That we should take the judgment of sound talent people and call it good, in so many words.
Which is fine, to some extent: we don’t know Morrow, or League, personally, and certainly haven’t spent the time evaluating them and their health as long as the Mariners have with Morrow.
What’s concerning is this is exactly the same argument people raised whenever the Bavasi front office (and before that, Gillick) made a move we disagreed with. That all of us are on the outside doesn’t make a considered opinion invalid, or even without insight (or, as commenter Ivan likes to say, “I don’t have to be a chicken to tell you an egg’s rotten”).
I went back through some of the Bavasi off-season moves and it’s there for them all, though from different people, couched in different language, for things like the Everett signing (maybe they see that his swing’s made for Safeco and he’ll hit 20 HR/80 RBI…) (fun side note: people pointing out Branyan was set to make less than Bloomquist in 2007 in this comment thread), or the strange trade pursuit of Juan Pierre (remember that? (shudder)), and on until the front office had lost everyone.
Here’s my proposal, then: I’m entirely willing to acknowledge (as we’ve done with Morrow) that a trade makes sense if you make some evaluation that the team may have arrived at. And I’m happy to argue for or against that evaluation, though I worry we risk wasting a lot of effort arguing things we can’t know.
And in return, let’s not argue that those things are given: that if we believe the reason a trade or a signing happened was unprovable thing x, that isn’t in and of itself proof of thing x.
Because we’ve all made those assumptions and seen them fall flat.
Merry Christmas thread
Heyyyyy, if that’s your holiday of choice, all the best. If it’s not, well, hopefully you got the day off. If you celebrate with gift exchanges, we’re all the recipients of a fine front office that’s turned our troubled franchise around (and, humorously enough, turned our reputation from cynical robotic haters to mindless pom-pom and calculator carrying cheerleaders).
I will not be playing the Morlock today and keeping the machinery running, Dave’s brain will be taking the day off, and I hope none of the mods work today keeping the comments readable. If the M’s announce they’ve traded for Pujols, well, you’re going to have to wait until tomorrow.
Actually… I would probably step out of the family dinner for a minute for Pujols. No promises though.
My Philosophical Problem With The Deal
Not surprisingly, Jack threw water on my theory about the Morrow-League trade, stating outright that these deals were two separate, unrelated moves. I will take his word for it – he’s been honest enough as a GM to have earned that.
So, if we strike down my theory that this deal was an extension of the Lee trade and reject the notion that this is a setup for another, better deal (which I just find very unlikely), then the obvious conclusion is that the Mariners simply do not have much faith that Brandon Morrow will be an effective starting pitcher. This trade is essentially a bet against Morrow’s future value, with the team trading out the best case scenario (he succeeds as a starter) for a better probability at a lesser return.
If you believe that Morrow is a reliever, then preferring League makes a lot of sense. They both do the same thing well – throw really hard – but League does it with a sinker that is more effective than Morrow’s four seam fastball. League is a better reliever than Morrow. If you significantly discount or eliminate the possibility that Morrow will succeed as a starter, then this swap makes sense.
But that’s my problem with this. No one knows how Brandon Morrow is going to develop. He’s basically still a prospect, having been jerked around so many times that his development has been stunted significantly. We can try to make educated guesses about the likelihood of his success in the rotation, based on his pitch types, command, durability, and other assorted assessments. But, in the end, none of us know what is going to happen. He could flame out and never amount to anything. He could win multiple Cy Young Awards. He could end up anywhere in between.
This trade is a specific bet against Morrow’s development. In stock market terms, the M’s are shorting Brandon Morrow. Maybe they have enough information about him to believe that this is a good idea, but it’s a departure from the type of roster building that they’ve been successful with – giving themselves options and flexibility based on an unpredictable future.
Since Zduriencik got hired, the Mariners have made moves that do not require a specific opinion to be justified in order for the move to work. They’ve added players at prices that are relatively low compared to the potential return, so that even if the move doesn’t work, it was a gamble worth taking. They didn’t know that David Aardsma was going to take a step forward, but they put themselves in a position to let him do so without needing him to in order to justify giving up Fabian Williamson. The cost was so low that he could not work out and it wouldn’t hurt them. They gave themselves an opportunity, but a specific outcome was not necessary.
The same is true of almost every transaction the team has made under Zduriencik. Russ Branyan didn’t have to hit 30 home runs to earn his salary. Franklin Gutierrez didn’t have to be a +30 defensive center fielder to be worth giving up J.J. Putz. Cliff Lee doesn’t have to win the Cy Young to be worth a trio of okay prospects.
For this trade to be a good idea, though, Brandon Morrow has to fail as a starting pitcher. If he goes to Toronto and becomes a quality starting pitcher, you lose, no matter how well Brandon League pitches out of the bullpen. This time, the M’s are betting on a specific result to justify the trade.
This is what Bill Bavasi often did. In fact, this move reminds me a bit of the Rafael Soriano-Horacio Ramirez swap. The M’s were going to trade Soriano, come hell or high water, because they didn’t like his make-up and his history of arm problems. They expected his arm to fall off and so they shipped him off for a lesser player, believing that they’d be better off with something than nothing. Of course, League is far, far more talented than Ramirez, and this deal is a lot more justifiable than that debacle was, but the gamble against a talented pitcher is the same. The Mariners needed Soriano to break down for that deal to make sense, and the M’s need Morrow to fail as a starter for this one to make sense.
Betting on a specific outcome is not how this team was built. We cannot know the future, so the best way to build a team is to give yourself as many good options as possible, then react to what actually does happen. Jack has done this exceptionally well, which is why this move is so puzzling. The team has continually made moves where they took guys with question marks and gave them opportunities. This time, they took a guy with question marks and decided that he wasn’t worth an opportunity, selling for a price that essentially values him as a failure.
This move could work out for the M’s. I’m a known skeptic of Morrow’s abilities, and I believe there’s a pretty good chance his combination of health problems, lack of command, and problems getting LH hitters out will eventually land him back in the bullpen. That could certainly happen. That may even be the most likely outcome. But we don’t know that Morrow will fail as a starter, and this trade presupposes that knowledge. It needs that to happen for this deal to not look bad.
And whenever you put yourself in a position where you need a player to either completely succeed (or fail, in this case) in order to justify the acquisition, there’s a good chance that you’re taking on too much risk. In some cases, the reward might be worth the risk, as I think you can argue is the case with the Lee and Bradley deals. In this case, though, the reward is a relief pitcher. A good relief pitcher, but still, a relief pitcher.
That’s not much reward. If the M’s are right, they get a good arm out of the bullpen who struggles to throw strikes. If they’re wrong, they just gave up a young, power arm in a rotation that is not overflowing with young, power arms. Even if they believe they are right, the costs of being wrong are really high. They have to be right. And that makes this a deal that I just can’t be a fan of.
Current… for now… that is today… 2010 M’s depth chart
Pitching
SP-R Felix Hernandez
SP-L Cliff Lee
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP-R Ian Snell
SP-R Doug Fister
(SP-R Yusmeiro Petit, then there’s a grey area for a couple of the guys below)
Soooo let’s try and sort out the bullpen this time, rather than just leave a huge blob. Assume 7.
RP-R David Aardsma
RP-R Brandon League
RP-R Mark Lowe
RP-L Luke French
RP-L Jason Vargas
RP-L Garrett Olson
RP-R Shawn Kelley
(then the blob: RP-R Sean White, RP-R Kanekoa Texeira)
Position players
C-R Rob Johnson
C-R Adam Moore
1B-L Mike Carp
2B-R Jose Lopez
SS-R Jack Wilson
3B-B Chone Figgins
LF-L Michael Saunders
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez
RF-L Ichiro!
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr.
DH/LF-B Milton Bradley
UT-R Bill Hall (IF/OF-R?)
IF-L Jack Hannahan
OF-L Ryan Langerhans
Still no Saunders word.
Branyan’s negotiating position is eroding fast.
And I don’t know that we should count the Morrow/League trade as the “other shoe” from the last time we ran this.
Choose Your Own Conclusion
It’s not quite an adventure, but the Morrow for League/Chavez trade is certainly a departure from what we have come to expect from the Mariners over the last year. Safe to say, there are not too many Mariner fans who like the return. Whatever you think of Morrow, an arbitration eligible reliever and an A-ball version of Wladimir Balentien is not exactly what we expected his market value to be.
So, I think this trade leads to three possible conclusions. You can pick any of the three.
1. These guys are not fans, at all, of Brandon Morrow, and had no interest beginning the season with him in the starting rotation. They shopped him all winter, and this was the best they could do. They like League as a reliever more than Morrow as a reliever, and since they didn’t see Brandon as a starter, they took the chance to upgrade the bullpen. This also requires us to conclude that no one in baseball sees Morrow as a particularly valuable piece, since this was theoretically the best the team could do during a winter where it was obvious that he was going to be traded.
2. This trade is a setup to another deal. Some yet unnamed third team wanted League or Chavez, and the M’s will use them as chips to get something that they couldn’t use Morrow to get. Or perhaps some team wants Aardsma or Lowe or Kelley, and the Mariners preferred to bring in their replacement before they trade them away.
3. This deal was part of the Cliff Lee trade. It was always weird that the Halladay and Lee portions of the deal were announced together, yet they were essentially two separate transactions, with no players going back and forth between Seattle and Toronto. Remember, we all feel like the Mariners got Lee for significantly less than he should have cost, and the expectation the entire time the rumor was developing was that Morrow was going to be in the deal. Perhaps that portion of the negotiations just couldn’t get finalized before the trade had to be announced (remember, the Phillies only had 72 hours to negotiate with Halladay), so the Mariners and Blue Jays agreed to work out the Morrow aspect of the trade at a later date.
Personally, I think I believe #3. Can I prove it? No, of course not. But it makes the most sense. Does all of baseball not valuing Morrow strike anyone as likely, especially after rumors of Detroit offering up Edwin Jackson for him and the Brewers coveting him for several years now? Does it seem likely that the Mariners would trade Morrow for a less valuable reliever and a mediocre prospect in an effort to make another deal without actually securing that deal at the time? Jack knows how to make a three way deal, so if he was flipping parts to another organization for someone else, why wouldn’t they just do it at the same time?
To me, the last one is the most logical. The M’s didn’t give up enough to get Lee unless you include this as part of that deal, in which case the price is much more fair. This makes the Halladay deal look a lot better for Toronto, and explains why they were willing to kick in $6 million in salary to help Philadelphia be able to make the deal. It also explains why Philadelphia shipped Lee to Seattle, rather than shopping him for a better package somewhere else.
If we conclude that this deal was part of last week’s trade, then it answers a lot of questions. It explains why a team that has made so many good moves inexplicably makes a lousy one. It explains why the Mariners were able to get Cliff Lee for three mediocre prospects. It explains why the Phillies weren’t willing to look for another team who would pay more for Lee in the three way deal.
So, that’s my theory. The M’s actually traded Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and JC Ramirez for Cliff Lee, Brandon League, and Johermyn Chavez.
Morrow Traded?
Ken Rosenthal just sent out a twitter message stating that sources have told him that the Mariners have reached a “tentative” agreement to trade Brandon Morrow to Toronto for Brandon League and a prospect.
My first reaction is that there’s information missing here. I can’t see the M’s dealing Morrow for a relief pitcher and a prospect as they gear up to win in 2010. There has to be more to this, unless the “prospect” is someone like Brett Wallace, who could step in and fill the gap at first base.
League, if you’re not aware, throws really hard. His average fastball is 95 MPH, and its not a hit-me four seam fastball, but instead a heavy, diving sinker. He gets a ton of ground balls with it, and finally started getting strikeouts last year as well. He could be an elite relief pitcher if he can keep command of his stuff. But, that’s the rub – he’s a relief pitcher, which inherently limits his value. He’s also arbitration eligible and only under team control for three more years, so he’s a short term asset.
That’s why the prospect is obviously the important factor. League is a nice pitcher, kind of like Mark Lowe with more ground balls, but not the value that you give up Morrow for.
Update: Jordan Bastian, a reliable reporter from Toronto, reports that Johermyn Chavez is the prospect the M’s are getting. Chavez is Toronto’s version of Greg Halman – toolsy RH outfielder with power and terrible plate discipline, hit well repeating low-A ball as a 20-year-old last year. Upside, sure, but a long way from the majors and lots of flaws. If true, this is the first deal Jack has made that I truly dislike. Full analysis when its official.
New Venue For USSM Event
And we’re sold out again. I literally can’t get a bigger venue than this without renting out Key Arena or something. Hopefully, there aren’t too many disappointed folks out there. Look forwarding to see all 540 (!) of you in a few weeks.
Second update: We’re seeing occasional refunds on tickets sold, so tickets do open up from time to time. It’s worth checking to see if any have become available if you’re still looking to get in.
So, the response to the January 9th USSM event was overwhelming. We sold out in three hours, and then were bombarded by people wanting to attend who didn’t get tickets. So, in order to accommodate more people, we (okay, Matthew did – thanks man!) have found a larger venue for the event – Benaroya Hall. The Nordstrom Recital Hall holds 540 people, so we can essentially double the space for you guys.
This comes at a significant cost increase. The library charges a fraction of what we’re going to have to pay to rent the new space. So, to make this work, the new tickets that are being made available will cost $17 – $15 of that will come to us, and $2 goes to Brown Paper TIckets for their service charge (it goes from $0.99 to $1.99 once you cross the $10 ticket threshold). In order to cover our costs, we need to sell about 200 more tickets at this higher price, so I’m betting on there still being significant demand for this event. I think I’m right. I hope I am.
Anyway, the ticket window is open at BPT again. Again, please select “physical tickets” and have them mailed to you or print-at-home. This will make everything go much, much more smoothly on the day of the event than if we’re having to check IDs at Will Call for a couple hundred people.
There are 265 more tickets available at this price. I have no idea how long they will last. The last batch sold out in half a day. If you want to go, buy them now. Don’t wait. I can’t get a bigger venue than this. When they’re gone, they’re gone.
So, that’s the scoop – $17 gets you in, everything else is the same – January 9th, 1 pm to 5 pm, good times to be had by all.
Note – if you already bought tickets, you’re in. We’re honoring your $10 tickets. The new folks will have to bear the cost of the larger venue.
First Base Options
I know the excitement-o-meter is off the charts right now, and the last week has raised everyone’s expectations for how Jack is going to finish the off-season. First base is the obvious next step, and since they got Cliff Lee, why not dream about Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Lance Berkman, or Joey Votto, right?
The problem, though, is that you can only acquire players who the other team wants to trade. And there’s just no real signs that any of those guys are available right now. You can want them to be, but if they aren’t, they aren’t. They may be available at some point in the future, but as of today, the odds of getting any of those kinds of players are slim, and the price you would have to pay to get it done is prohibitive.
That is why, in reality, I think the M’s are going to end up spending $4 to $5 million on a solid, non-star first baseman for 2010. They have around $10 million or so left in the budget, and I’d expect them to save some cash to sign one of the injury prone/old starting pitchers on the market, whether that be Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, or whoever. I also get the feeling that they’re going to sign a reliever, and they’d love to have a lefty for Wak to use in the 7th/8th innings. So, saving some cash and getting a less sexy name at first base is probably the way to go. And if something opens up for a bigger acquisition down the line, you can evaluate whether it’s the right move then.
Essentially, here are the options that I’m aware of as of now:
Via Trade:
Lyle Overbay, Toronto
The classic average first baseman. He doesn’t do anything well or poorly. He makes okay contact. He draws some walks. He hits for some power. His defense at first is fine. He’s just average across the board, offering little risk and little upside. Given the M’s roster, that’s actually a pretty valuable piece, because he’s the kind of player you can count on without worrying about significant variance. The win or two he would add over Mike Carp is pretty important in terms of the M’s playoff chances, so even if he’s not exciting, it is a real upgrade and potentially worth pursuing.
He’s due $7 million in the final year of his contract, then he’s a free agent. You could probably get the Blue Jays to kick in a couple million if the M’s were willing to take him, as they just acquired Brett Wallace to be their first baseman of the future, and Overbay is just in his way. As a one year fill-in who didn’t cost much, he could help the team score some runs and not be a big obstacle if the Padres put Gonzalez on the market in July. The price has to be right, though, and that depends on Toronto’s desire to move him.
Luke Scott, Baltimore
Scott, we’ve talked about. An outfielder who is willing to transition to first base and could probably be acquired for the right price, he’s arbitration eligible and will make around $4 million in 2010. Lefty with power and patience who strikes out a bit, he’s similar in total value to Overbay, though he also offers the defensive flexibility to be able to play the outfield if need be, and the M’s could keep him past 2010 if he had a good season. Whether those positives outweigh the cost of acquiring him from the Orioles, who would not give him away, is a pretty big factor.
Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh
Another guy we’ve talked about as a potential fit for the team. He offers a bit more risk and upside than either Overbay or Scott, as he’s young and could catch part-time, giving the M’s the chance to get some offense from behind the plate while offering insurance if either Moore or Johnson are not ready for the start of the season. He’s also a switch-hitter, so from a flexibility standpoint, it would be hard to do better. Lots of downsides, though – he’s coming off a bad season, he’s had wrist injury issues which are known to sap power, and he has next to no experience at first base. He’s also an overly aggressive hitter, which the M’s are in the process of getting away from. That’s a lot of extra risk for the M’s to be taking on, though the upside is there.
He’s under contract for $3.5 million in 2010 and $5 million in 2011, so the contract is right. Pittsburgh would want something useful in return, though, so like Scott, the M’s may decide that they’re better off acquiring a cast-off that won’t cost them any talent and could offer similar production, even if it comes with less flexibility.
Willy Aybar, Tampa Bay
A bit of a personal favorite, he’d be an upside play, kind of in the mold of what the M’s did with Gutierrez and Aardsma a year ago. A switch hitter with gap power and good contact skills, he has the tools to be an above average hitter, but the results haven’t been there the last two years due to low BABIPs. Some players really are true talent .270 BABIP guys, but we’re still dealing with a small sample on Aybar, and we shouldn’t conclude that he is just yet.
He’l be 27 next year, and remains on my list of guys who could take a big step forward if given regular playing time. He also has experience at both 3rd and 2nd (though he may getting too large for second base, especially on a team that values defense), offering the positional flexibility that the team likes. In a lot of ways, he’s a really good fit for the roster.
Unfortunately, he plays for Tampa Bay, and they are the hardest team in the league to trade with. They value their young, cost-controlled players and are reluctant to make any deal that is not a heist for their franchise. They know that Aybar has some upside, and given his team friendly contract, they’re not likely to part with him unless they get something back that they like even more.
James Loney, Los Angeles
The gap between what Loney has been and could be is pretty large. He has tremendous contact skills, the kind of swing and frame that should generate power, and the athleticism of a guy who could be a really good defender at first base. Heading into his age 26 season, though, he has yet to translate the skills into performance.
His lack of power is the real problem at the moment. His ISO was just .118 last year, simply not good enough from a non-premium defender at the position. He has more juice in his bat, as he’s shown in the minors and in his 2007 season, but the power can only be hoped for, not expected. Despite the athleticism, his UZR is below average in nearly 4,000 innings at first base. And the walks don’t make up for the rest of the package.
The Dodgers are unlikely to give up on him so soon, so he won’t be easy to acquire. And yet, he just hasn’t produced at a level where the M’s should be comfortable paying a premium to acquire him in lieu of other available options. The upside makes him interesting, but the cost to acquire probably eliminates him from discussion.
Mat Gamel, Milwaukee
In some ways, Gamel makes a lot of sense. Jack drafted him in Milwaukee, so there’s not much of a question over whether they like what he brings to the table. A 23-year-old lefty who pounds the ball all over the field and draws a bunch of walks is certainly appealing to the M’s, and he’s basically major league ready. Rather than serving as a short term solution, he could help the team win in 2010 and beyond.
There are problems, though. He’s not good defensively, and probably won’t be anywhere. He lacks the physical abilities to be a quality glove guy. He also strikes out an awful lot and doesn’t have the power of a guy like Branyan, so you have to live with a bit lower average without getting the 35 homers. The doubles and walks make him a good hitter, but given his defensive issues, he’s not going to be a star unless he’s a great hitter. And, while Milwaukee probably would trade him if they got the right return, his price tag will be high.
He probably won’t outproduce the veteran options for 2010, so acquiring Gamel would be a move for the future. But if it takes a big part of the future to get him, is the team really better off? A Morrow-Gamel deal has been discussed, but it seems like neither team is really pushing for it. The M’s may be better off just getting a player who can produce in 2010 and worry about the future later.
Via Free Agency:
Everything I said about Overbay is true about LaRoche. They’re very similar players. LaRoche has a tad more power, though he’s spent his career in the National League, so you have to adjust his numbers down a bit. He’s a good but not great hitter and an okay defender, and the overall package makes him about league average. The problem, though, is that his strong finish to the 2009 season has deluded him into thinking he’s worth significant money. Rumors have him asking for 3 years and $30 million. Anything more than 1/7 is an overpay in this market, so he’s probably out unless his agent can talk some sense into him.
Russ Branyan
As I mentioned the other day, the M’s already have enough health risks, and they may not want to compound that by bringing Branyan back and counting on him to play the field. His power makes him a good player when he’s healthy, but whether he’ll be able to play well or often is a real question. Even at a discount, the M’s might now be best suited going for a lesser player with a healthier profile.
See Russ Branyan, just replace the herniated disc with knee problems and the fact that he’s almost 40.
The right-handed version of Overbay. He’s a decent enough player, but he’s better off somewhere else.
A useful platoon hitter who is a better defender than he’s usually given credit for, but the M’s aren’t going to run a platoon at first base, and Hinske isn’t that much better than Mike Carp. Probably not a real option.
He’s just not very good, and offers way too much risk with not enough reward.
Internal Candidates
His strong performance in limited time in Seattle has probably inflated his actual value in the eyes of some fans. As a player, he’s similar to Overbay, just with less power and worse defense. He has good plate discipline, but lacks the power to be a really good hitter, and his contact skills are just fine, not exceptional. For this player type to work, you generally have to have excellent bat control and be terrific in the field, ala John Olerud or Mark Grace. Carp is not that kind of defender or contact hitter, leaving him shy of the major league skills needed to be a quality major league starter. He’s probably a +0 to +1 win player for 2010, and the upside is limited. He’d be cheap, but the team could do better.
This probably deserves it’s own post, but no, the team should not move Lopez to first base. He’s not so bad defensively that he’s killing the team at second, nor is he so good offensively that the team should be willing to make the move to keep his bat in the line-up. He’d probably be a decent defender relative to the average first baseman, but offensively, he’d be among the worst in the league. If you don’t want him playing second base, then you don’t want him on the team. And maybe you don’t, but this is a terrible market in which to try to trade a second baseman, and he has value at his production/cost level, so giving him away is pretty foolish. In reality, the M’s best option is probably to let him keep the spot warm for Dustin Ackley, hope he has a big year, and try to trade him again next winter.
Morning crow
I made some catty comments w/r/t Griffey pushing out Langerhans, who the M’s just re-signed and appear to be intent on using in exactly the role I was complaining he’d be well-suited for. Sorry folks! I don’t know why they non-tendered him and then came back, and I kind of suspect the M’s are taking dares now (“Can’t keep Milton Bradley productive, huh? We’ll show you…”), but there it is: no mockery deserved.
Mmm, mmm, delicious.
Current depth chart for your 2010 M’s
I swear they’re making moves based on what people last said they wouldn’t do, and when I posted last. So here’s this getting a little more complicated.
Pitching
SP-R Felix Hernandez
SP-L Cliff Lee. That’s not a typo. They really traded for Cliff Lee.
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP-R Brandon Morrow
(one of:
SP-R Ian Snell
SP-R Doug Fister
SP-R Yusmeiro Petit)
RP-R David Aardsma
RP-R Mark Lowe
RP-R Shawn Kelley
RP-R Sean White
RP-L Jason Vargas
RP-L Garrett Olson
RP-L Luke French (?)
RP-R Kanekoa Texeira
Position players
C-R Rob Johnson
C-R Adam Moore
1B-L Mike Carp
2B-R Jose Lopez
SS-R Jack Wilson
3B-B Chone Figgins
LF-L Michael Saunders
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez
RF-L Ichiro!
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr.
DH/LF-B Milton Bradley
UT-R Bill Hall (IF/OF-R?)
IF-L Jack Hannahan
OF-L Ryan Langerhans
As Dave notes, that’s likely to have Saunders dropping. But the team hasn’t said anything yet, so…
Plus we know there’s another shoe to drop. It’s not going to be Bay, because they’ve been tied to Bay. What’s the least-predicted storyline? Even Randy Johnson-Chuck Armstrong reconciliation’s been thought of. Red Sox accidentally throw Kevin Youklis into a swap of minor leaguers after Zduriencik uses his hypnogaze? They’re first on an Astros salary purge, picking up Berkman? Funny joke, right, but they just snagged Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee is a Mariner. Why not dream of Pujols?