Bradley and Branyan
I think there is one wrinkle to the Milton Bradley acquisition that has not been discussed much, and that is how the presence of a player with Bradley’s health history affects what the team will do at first base, specifically with regards to Russ Branyan.
Bradley’s risks do not just end with his personality. He has had 500 plate appearances in a season twice in his career, and he’s only played in more than 130 games once. Thanks to the great injury tool, we can see that, in the last five years, Bradley has spent 188 days on the 15 day DL, 49 days on the 60 day DL, and been labeled day-to-day on 96 different days. He has had problems with his knee, hip, thigh, lower leg, groin, “general medical”, back, wrist, forearm, shoulder, trunk, ankle, hand, abdomen, and even his face.
The man gets hurt an awful lot. He makes up for it by playing well when he’s on the field, but it is going to be a fairly common occurrence that he’s not available to play. And that reality is going to make it hard for the M’s to also have a guy like Russ Branyan as their starting first baseman.
We already have an infielder with a history of injury problems in Jack Wilson, and we just acquired an OF/DH with an even more extensive series of health problems. As we saw last year, Junior’s knees will keep him off the field fairly regularly as well. Over a 162 game season, there’s a good chance that there are going to be days when all three of those guys are just not available due to various tweaks and pulls.
If you add Branyan to the mix, now you have four guys who you can’t really count on, health wise, to play everyday. A herniated disc is no joke, and even if he rehabs well and puts in a ton of work, there are going to be days when he just can’t go. And if that happens on the same day that Jack Wilson’s hamstring is bothering him and Milton Bradley’s (insert any body part here) is ailing, then what? Hannahan’s playing short, Hall goes to left, and Langerhans plays first, while Jr is the DH? Better hope the opponents aren’t throwing a southpaw that day. And if Junior’s knees are bothering him as well, well, apparently Rob Johnson would be your DH and you just play without a bench.
This might sound implausible, and it wouldn’t happen more than a couple of times all year, but the team would be playing with a short bench almost the entire year. On any given day, you would almost expect that one of Bradley/Griffey/Wilson/Branyan would be unavailable for one reason or another. That really limits Wak’s options at the end game. You have to think that there are going to be numerous occasions where Wak is going to want to pinch-hit for Jack Wilson in high leverage, late game situations, but he may be very hesitant to do that if Hannahan was starting at first base and Branyan wasn’t available to go into the game.
Also, you’re likely to see Langerhans used as a defensive replacement for Bradley quite a bit (both to improve the defense and just keep Milton healthy), so if he’s being reserved for that role and the team has another guy on the bench who can’t go that day, they will not be able to pinch run without significant risk.
In the end, I think three 30+ guys with a lot of nagging health problems is probably enough. I don’t know that the Mariners are going to want their #3 and #4 hitters to both be needing frequent rest days as they try to win the AL West. The addition of Bradley makes bringing Branyan back a little less palatable.
I’m certain the M’s have already had this discussion and are aware of this. Perhaps they already know that Russ isn’t coming back, and that he has a two year offer from a team that we haven’t heard about yet. But even if that’s not true, I think this acquisition lowers the value that Branyan can offer the Mariners in relation to someone who is a bit more reliable from a health standpoint.
I could be wrong, but to me, the Bradley acquisition means that we probably won’t see The Muscle back in Seattle next year.
Roster Almost Set
Today’s dual moves of trading for Milton Bradley and re-signing Ryan Langerhans to a major league contract seem to go together. And, they would apparently point to Michael Saunders probably beginning 2010 somewhere besides Seattle – likely Tacoma, but Jack is known to be pursuing a trade involving some big pieces, and this could be the precursor to that kind of deal. Here’s why this leads me down that path.
The M’s did not acquire Bradley to just DH. He’s an average-ish defensive left fielder, which is part of the appeal to the team. They had no interest in another DH-only type of player with Griffey on the roster. And, whether he deserves it or not, Griffey is going to play more than once a month – I’ve got him penciled in for 200 to 250 at-bats at DH, which is basically playing every couple of days or so. By acquiring a guy who can play both LF and DH, the M’s have essentially created a rotating LF/DH platoon between Bradley, Griffey, Langerhans, and Hall.
On some days, we’ll see Bradley in left and Griffey at DH. On other days, it will be Langerhans in left and Bradley at DH. Against a LH pitcher, I think you’ll see Hall in left and Bradley at DH on most days. None of the four will be counted on to be full-time players, which they are not capable of being, but they will be allowed to share two jobs when the match-ups are in their favor.
Saunders just isn’t as good of a fit for this kind of role as Langerhans is. He needs to play regularly, not spend half his days sitting on the bench and coming in a as a late inning defensive replacement. The portion of the LF job share that he would be up for is probably only in line for 250-300 at-bats, which is not enough for a kid who still has stuff to work on. But it’s perfect for Langerhans, who is a quality role player but not good enough to play everyday.
Given Bradley’s role here, I think Saunders probably begins the year in Tacoma. And that’s fine – Bradley is a good enough player where that kind of move makes sense, given the team’s go-for-it approach to 2010. Whether he ends up joining the team at some point in the summer or gets shipped off at the deadline as a piece in a blockbuster trade remains to be seen. The nice thing about today’s moves is that it gives the Mariners the option to do either.
Silva-Bradley Swap Near?
Larry Stone reports that the M’s may announce a Carlos Silva-Milton Bradley trade as soon as today. This deal has been talked about for a while, because of the matching salaries and the M’s need for a hitter, but the organization had made it clear to a bunch of people that they had no interest in Bradley. That makes this a pretty big surprise, honestly.
If it goes through, there are basically two reactions that we have to reconcile.
1. Milton Bradley is a significantly better player than Carlos Silva, and a much more obvious fit for what this team needs. In terms of production, the M’s just got a lot better. A switch-hitting, high OBP LF/DH is exactly the kind of player that this roster is calling for. And the price is obviously right.
2. Milton Bradley is the exact opposite of the kind of person the organization has spent the last year bringing in. He’s as far removed from Mike Sweeney as you can get. But, the Mariners never promised to have 25 choir boys on the team, and perhaps they feel that the culture that they’ve already created will allow Bradley to have another lower-maintenance season, like he did in 2008. Remember, Wak is good friends with Ron Washington, who was able to get a good full season out of Bradley in 2008.
From the how-will-he-fit-into-the-clubhouse angle, I think we all just really have to defer to Wak on this one. If he thinks he can get through to Bradley and keep him from causing significant problems, then I’m not going to say that he can’t. Very few managers have been able to, but Wak is a very impressive leader of people.
Remember, we’re not just talking about a guy whose a little prickly here. This is a dude who wore a t-shirt saying “F*** Eric Wedge” in the clubhouse when played for the Indians. He’s worn out his welcome everywhere he has been for a reason. This isn’t the kind of “clubhouse chemistry” argument where there’s little evidence that the off-field stuff matters. With Bradley, it matters a lot. He’s a constant threat of getting ejected in any given game, and a suspension is always possible. He fights with umpires, fans, teammates, coaches… odds are decent that he’s going to be offended by the Mariner Moose at some point. It affects his ability to stay on the field and produce, so this is not a small personality flaw that can be dismissed as unimportant.
But the M’s are apparently willing to take that risk. Given that Silva’s money was essentially a sunk cost, they can hold the power to just release Bradley outright without coming out of this deal looking like they got hosed. Perhaps that kind of leverage gives them confidence that they can take a chance on the guy.
If they’re right, the M’s just added a couple more wins to their roster. From a talent perspective, Bradley is perfect for the M’s. This all hinges on how well he and Wak can get along.
M’s Re-Sign Langerhans
Good news – Langerhans is back. The M’s gave him a major league deal to keep him from going somewhere else, so he’s back in the fold. It’s interesting that this is a major league contract, but my guess is it is for not much more than the league minimum.
As much as I like Langerhans, I’m still not sure I see him on the opening day roster. As we’ve laid out, the team has two open roster spots if they go with a 12 man pitching staff. I can’t see Langerhans getting one of those two spots, given how the roster is currently constructed. But, things can change, and the M’s have just given themselves some more depth, which is never a bad thing
Nick Johnson To Sign With Yankees
Multiple reports have the Yankees on the verge of signing Nick Johnson to a one year contract for $5 to $6 million. This is, essentially, Rich Harden 2.0 – a player the M’s could have used signing a good value contract with another AL club. On the surface, it’s disappointing.
But, you know what, the M’s have earned the benefit of the doubt. If they didn’t bid up Nick Johnson, they are probably pretty confident in the alternatives. I think we all are enjoying the guy we got instead of Harden, after all.
So, yeah, I would have liked to have Nick Johnson, but this doesn’t change my expectation that the team will find a quality first baseman this winter.
Announcing The Next USSM Event
Update: And we’re sold out. I’m sorry to anyone who was not able to get tickets – we’ll look for a bigger venue for future events. Also, there are always people who buy tickets and can’t make it, so we’ll do a thread the week before the event to match up people who can’t go with those who want to.
We’ve done enough of these now where I think you guys have a pretty good idea of what they are. So, here are the details.
When: Saturday, January 9th, 1-5 pm
Where: Seattle Central Library, Microsoft Auditorium
What: Q&A with local bloggers and members of the Mariners front office.
How much: $10
We have 275 seats available in the auditorium, but I’m sure this is going to sell out, so you probably want to buy your tickets sooner than later. And, this time around, I’ve decided to make life easier on everyone and get out of the registration process, so I’m outsourcing the ticketing/payment to Brown Paper Tickets. You can purchase your tickets to the event from BPT, and they will mail you a ticket that gets you access to the Q&A.
This event was a smashing success last year, and I think this one will be even better. I’m flying out for it, for one, but more importantly, it’s on Jack Zduriencik’s calendar as well. We are not promising that any specific member of the front office will be there, as something could always come up that would require their attention, but we’re hopeful that Jack will be able to join his crew for the meeting. We’ll plan a 15 minute standing ovation into the schedule.
Logistical stuff: The library will provide a $5 parking rate for anyone who wants to park in their garage that day. Also, because the library will be open during the event, if you plan to arrive early, just enjoy the library itself and do not gather outside the auditorium waiting to get in – they don’t have room to accommodate a big line of people waiting for the doors to open.
Water will be provided, but no food. Eat before you come.
Questions can be left in the comments below.
Your current depth chart for the 2010 M’s they have Cliff Lee now
Pitching
SP-R Felix Hernandez
SP-L Cliff Lee. That’s not a typo. They really traded for Cliff Lee.
SP-L Ryan Rowland-Smith
SP-R Brandon Morrow
(one of:
SP-R Ian Snell
SP-R Carlos Silva
SP-R Doug Fister
SP-R Yusmeiro Petit)
RP-R David Aardsma
RP-R Mark Lowe
RP-R Shawn Kelley
RP-R Sean White
RP-L Jason Vargas
RP-L Garrett Olson
RP-L Luke French (?)
RP-R Kanekoa Texeira
It looks like Carlos Silva’s moving into the vacated Miguel Batista vastly overpaid mop-up guy. Unfortunately, the team’s still looking for a guy to call “Doc” and “Prof” now that their distinguished author is gone.
There’s also been a little talk about going with an 11-man pitching staff. I’m with Dave on this: I’ll believe it when they start the season with one.
Position players
C-R Rob Johnson
C-R Adam Moore
1B-L Mike Carp
2B-R Jose Lopez
SS-R Jack Wilson
3B-B Chone Figgins
LF-L Michael Saunders
CF-R Franklin Gutierrez
RF-L Ichiro!
DH-L Ken Griffey Jr.
UT-R Bill Hall (IF/OF-R? OF-R?)
IF-L Jack Hannahan
.. and then they’re still looking for someone else.
Now I’d like to think that right now they’re calling the agents of the ninety 1B/DH guys left on the market and trying to get someone to jump early (Nick Johnson, if you could just wander by Seattle and hang out for a week, we’ll pay for the airfare and promise you’ll like the city). But the front office is probably looking at the roster right now and thinking “We should go snag another ace starter while everyone’s still shaken up, and there’ll be bats to play off against each other when we’re back.” Or something even more surprising.
M’s Sign Int’l SS Pedro Okuda
You may have heard recently that the Mariners have traded for some guy, former Cy Young winner or something. I don’t know, Dave seems to be pretty stoked though, and I take this as a good sign. Speaking from the perspective of the resident prospect guy, we dealt spare parts from our depth and lost little that’s likely to haunt us, and from that standpoint alone the deal is awesome. I really am excited too, but I leave the analysis to the professionals.
Another smaller deal that went down today was that the Mariners signed nineteen-year-old shortstop Pedro Okuda to a minor league contract. He’ll report to the Mariners’ Venezuelan academy come spring.
Pedro Okuda… it’s quite a name isn’t it? There’s a story behind that though. There were waves of Japanese immigration to South America in the early part of the century, and one of the things they brought with them was baseball. For the longest time, it was a niche game, as the locals were more interested in futbol, but it gradually gained in popularity to the point where the nation’s youth got a hold of it. In Brazil, the academies that pop up will require that players learn both Japanese and Portuguese in order to adequately communicate on the field. I imagine it’s the same with Spanish elsewhere. It’s still a market that’s opening up, but as you get out of Venezuela, Ecuador, and Colombia, and into places like Argentina and Brazil, the players that get signed usually have some Japanese ties.
The book on Okuda is this: Read more
What This Trade Does
The weird thing about the internet age is that by the time big moves are announced, they’ve been analyzed to death and there’s not much more to say. We got one of the best pitchers in baseball without giving up any real significant pieces of the franchises future. This is amazing, but you know this already.
So, at the risk of moving on from celebration prematurely, I’d like to spend a few minutes and talk about what this trade does to the team and the rest of the off-season.
Lee’s addition is a huge lift to the team’s true talent level, as the M’s have essentially swapped out (for now) one of Doug Fister/Jason Vargas/Carlos Silva for an all-star. They added about 4 to 5 wins to their expected total for 2010, depending on how much you like the collection of 5th starters the M’s currently have. This move, combined with the Figgins signing, gives the Mariners a true talent level of about 84 wins. And that’s with Saunders in left, Carp at first, and Griffey DH’ing.
The Mariners are now contenders. This vaults them into a similar arena of ability with the Angels and ahead of the Rangers and A’s. This team now has a legitimate chance to win the division in 2010, and because they’ve gotten bargains on Figgins and Lee, they still have the resources to go add a couple more pieces to fill out the roster and really give themselves a chance to play in October next year.
So now, the calculations change a bit. 2010 just got more important relative to the future than it was last week. The M’s have now put themselves into a position where the value obtained from upgrading the roster has a far more dramatic effect on the team’s chances of making the playoffs. In terms of the risk/reward balance of transactions, the reward for any move that improves the 2010 team just went up.
I talked about this a bit on FanGraphs last week, but the Mariners have just put themselves in a situation where the marginal value of each additional added win just went way up. The wins that push the team from 84 to 85 wins, 85 to 86, 86 to 87, and so forth have a much higher rate of return. The price the M’s should be willing to pay, both in acquisition costs and in the long-term/short-term trade-off, needs to reflect that. And I think you will see the team be aggressive in landing two more quality position players and perhaps a reliever, reflecting the reality that adding 4 to 5 more wins to this roster would make the M’s the best team in the AL West.
Before this trade, picking up a solid left fielder might not have been such a great idea, as the short term addition of a win or so over what Saunders could be expected to produce wouldn’t be worth the long term cost of not letting the youngster develop. Now, that win is important, and you can justify getting a guy like Luke Scott to take Saunders job. You can justify trading Brandon Morrow while his value is still lower than it could be if you get a significant upgrade at another position. You can justify putting together a huge package to try to convince the Padres to move Adrian Gonzalez (though that is still very unlikely).
This move changes everything. The M’s are contenders.
Trade Official
The Mariners got Cliff Lee for Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez.
I still can’t believe it. Amazing. Just ridiculous. There’s still more work to be done, but right now, the M’s and Angels are about equals in terms of talent. Given a couple more good moves, the team could easily be considered the favorites to win the AL West next year.