Act now!
Teams, where do you think you’re going to find a durable veteran left-hander with playoff experience for your stretch drive? Do you think a pink pegasus is going to swoop down next to the mound before your next game and one’s going to step off, already wearing your uniform?
Snap out of it! You want an ace? How about a 2.64 ERA? Two! Six! Four! 5.35 K/9? 2.23 BB/9? Sure, he’s a flyballer, but but he’s only giving up home runs on what, 6% of them? You won’t even get that from your expensive groundballers. You’ll only get that from Jarrod Washburn, available today!
You might say “that sounds too good to be true”. Listen, you! After years of grinding out starts with good-but-not-great stuff, Washburn’s finally found a weapon to match his veteran savvy and menacing grimace: a new two-seam fastball, newly mastered, that makes opposing hitters next to helpless. Have you seen it? Go call your scouting guys, roll some video.
Yeah, nice, huh? Washburn’s been throwing that all year. Roll more tape if you want proof, but don’t take too long — your competition won’t. Why, if he’d figured that pitch out early in his career he might have more hardware than hunting rifles racked up at his house. But then his price would be that much higher as an established name.
Speaking of price. You might be worried what Washburn will cost. Your whole farm system? Two, three major-league starters? Not at all. The Mariners, racked by lowered attendance and freshly dropped from the race, need to build for tomorrow, and they are ready to deal. They’re not asking for some Halladay-like haul, not some Lee-style looting. No! Call now and the Mariners will hand-select a couple guys off the farm system, names most of your fan base won’t even recognize. You know what they do recognize though? Pennants. You want pennants, you want this pitcher.
And if you act now, as a bonus, we’re willing to shore up your bullpen as well. You need right-handed help that can also write a gripping crime novel or poetry! We’ll include one at no extra charge! Or you might prefer a fire-throwing youngster — the Mariners can give you one as well.
And if you call by the trade deadline tomorrow, you’ll get the Mariner Moose! That’s right, the beloved, now parasite-free mascot that makes kids scream in glee and can be used to injure opposing players without consequence can be yours when you call the Seattle Mariners now! Don’t delay!
T-Minus 16 Hours
The trading deadline is at 1 pm local time tomorrow. If you’re looking for good news, well, don’t read below.
Melvin said he talked to clubs about “10 or 12†starting pitchers this week without coming close to a trade. He checked in one last time with Seattle general manager Jack Zduriencik about lefty Jarrod Washburn but talks did not progress.
“It looks like he’s going to keep Washburn,†said Melvin. “He’s going to try to win as many games as he can. Arizona appears to be that way, too, (with pitchers Doug Davis and Jon Garland).â€
Please be posturing. If Washburn is still here tomorrow afternoon, it’s an organizational failure. They have to move him – this is the easiest decision the new front office has had to make. Keeping him for a stretch drive that doesn’t matter would be a really, really poor decision. It’s been nice not having those this year. Let’s not screw that up.
If you want to be encouraged, the upside is that this M’s front office is about as leak-proof as any in baseball. The Mariners just don’t tip their hand to the media, and all of the information about their potential moves is based on information from other clubs. So, none of the rumor journalist types really knows what Jack and the gang are going to do. Here’s to hoping Doug Melvin doesn’t either.
Game 102, Mariners at Rangers
Olson v. Holland, 5:05
I guess it’s a good thing we sent Josh Wilson down, because otherwise how would we know who was starting at shortstop?
RF-L Ichiro
CF-R Gutierrez
2B-R Lopez
DH-R Sweeney
1B-R Shelton
3B-L Hannahan
SS-R Wilson
C-R Johnson
LF-L Saunders
Dave With Brock And Salk
I’ll be on the air with Brock and Salk on 710 ESPN at 2:00, talking about yesterday’s trade and why I’m apparently the only guy on earth who isn’t a big fan.
Thursday rumormongering and so forth
You know what to do. And it’s not “start off with news of a blockbuster crazy trade and then say just kidding” because that’s not funny, it’s annoying.
Projecting The New 2010 Roster
After today’s move, the M’s plan for the next year’s team, and how they’ll continue making upgrades this winter, comes into a bit clearer view. Here’s the general overview of what the team has in house for next year as of now.
Catcher: Rob Johnson, Kenji Johjima, Adam Moore
First Base: Mike Carp, Chris Shelton
Second Base: Jose Lopez
Shortstop: Jack Wilson
Third Base: Matt Tuiasosopo, Jack Hannahan
Left Field: Michael Saunders, Ryan Langerhans
Center Field: Franklin Gutierrez
Right Field: Ichiro Suzuki
Designated Hitter: Brad Nelson
Johjima’s probably going away (either back to Japan or traded, with the team basically assuming the rest of his salary), so you can mentally cross him off the list. The middle infield is probably set, while you’d expect that the team will displace one of the kids at the corners with a veteran. I’d expect Branyan back next year, so Carp/Shelton would share DH and Nelson would keep hanging out in Tacoma. Whether the the M’s will hand third over to Tui and Hannahan probably depends on how much Beltre gets offered as a free agent.
Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Ian Snell, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Brandon Morrow, Jason Vargas, Carlos Silva, Garrett Olson, Nick Hill
Bullpen: David Aardsma, Mark Lowe, Shawn Kelley, Sean White, Chris Jakubauskas, Robert Manuel, Josh Fields, Phillippe Aumont, losers of the rotation competition.
The rotation got a necessary arm for next year today in Snell, who could give the team the mid-rotation starter they were lacking before today’s trade. The flyball lefties, Morrow, and Silva could fight to fill out the back of the rotation, while Hill could force his way into the discussion if he has a strong spring.
All told, the M’s currently have about $55 million in committed multi-year contract salaries for 2010, while the arbitration eligible gang (Felix, Gutierrez, Aardsma, Lowe) should command about $15 million between them, and the league minimum guys on the roster would push the total payroll to about $78 million. If the organization maintains a payroll of around $95 million for 2010, then Jack would have about $17 million to spend this winter – and that’s before he brings back any of the Beltre/Branyan/Bedard/Washburn gang.
With that kind of money available, the team probably can only afford to offer arbitration to one of Beltre/Bedard (bet on Beltre in that case), and bringing back either would limit the amount of money they could offer Branyan to ~$6 or $7 million for 2010.
Or, to put this another way, take the above roster, put Beltre and Branyan back on it in place of Nelson/Tui, and you’re probably maxed out in payroll.
This is the downside of today’s trade. The M’s picked up a shortstop and a starting pitcher, but it cost them $12.5 million out of the 2010 payroll. They chopped up about 30% of their estimated winter budget in today’s deal. That’s a bit of a blow, and means that the team won’t be able to retain all the guys on the current roster that it might want to.
It’s nice to have a league average shortstop and a starter with upside. The team needed both. I just hope that everyone realizes that part of the cost of acquiring these two is that we’re now significantly less likely to upgrade 3B/1B/DH/SP this winter, at least through free agency. We know Jack’s good at finding undervalued talent in trade, which is good, because he’s going to have to do it again this winter.
Game 101, Jays at Mariners
Early 1:40 game. Halladay still slated to pitch… please, someone trade for him. Pleeeeaassseee.
They’re starting Woodward at short with Cedeno traded. Good times!
Wlad to Cincy
The M’s traded Balentien to Cincinnati for 25-year-old RHP Robert Manuel. Manuel’s fastball tops out at 87, but he has a decent change-up that’s let him destroy minor league hitters. There’s almost no upside here, though. At best, he’s a strike-throwing middle reliever. At worst, he’s a Triple-A arm who will get pounded in the majors.
I’m not a big fan of this deal either, but I guess we can hope he turns into Mark DiFelice 2.0.
The Trade
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Basic summary: I think we overpaid, unless it comes out that the Pirates are picking up half of Wilson’s 2010 salary or something. I liked Snell as a good buy-low candidate, but I’m not sure this is buying low. We gave up a lot for two guys with a lot of question marks.
Long summary, reposted from FanGraphs:
It’s no secret that I’m both a Mariner fan and an Ian Snell fan, as I’ve been lobbying for the M’s to acquire the guy from Pittsburgh for the last two months. I laid my reasons for liking Snell at the time, and his Triple-A performance hasn’t lessened my enthusiasm.
So, when the Mariners actually go out and trade for Snell, you would think I’d be a happy man. However, my first reaction when I heard about the deal that sent Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno, Brett Lorin, Aaron Pribanic, and Nathan Adcock to Pittsburgh for Snell and Jack Wilson was “yuckâ€.
Let’s start with what the Mariners are getting. Wilson is a really good defensive shortstop who can hit well enough to justify his place in the line-up. Despite a lack of power and an aggressive approach at the plate, he’s still been a +1.5 to +2.5 win player for most of his career. He’s essentially a league average shortstop, and at $7.25 million in salary for 2009 with a team option at $8.4 million for 2010, he’s not overly expensive for what he is. He’s a solid role player who does enough things well to earn his contract and won’t hurt the team he’s playing for.
But he’s also 31 years old, and while he’s not overly expensive, he’s not a bargain either. Adam Everett is a similar player and signed a 1 year, $1 million deal with the Tigers last winter. Wilson’s salary makes him a small asset, not a big one. He’s not the kind of player the Mariners should be giving up significant pieces to attain.
So, that leaves Snell as the main piece of value coming back. While I’m a fan, I also saw him as a buy-low opportunity, as he was done in Pittsburgh and everyone knew it. He’s not an ace – he’s a guy with good stuff and average to below average command and some well documented issues with his prior organization. I don’t like the word headcase, but when you’re talking about a guy who would rather pitch in Triple-A than the majors, it’s hard to argue with.
Snell’s contract is better than Wilson’s, as he makes just $4.25 million next year and then has two club options for 2011 and 2012 that could be bargains if he rebounds to prior form. But there’s obviously the risk that he won’t, and then you’re looking at getting one year of Snell and letting him leave. He may be a long term asset… or he might be a one year flop.
For two guys with minimal value, the Mariners parted with five young players.
Clement’s the big name of the bunch, as a LH DH/1B/C? with power who had no future with the Mariners. He can hit righties, but his ability to do anything else is questionable. His knee problems have kept him from catching, and the bat might not be good enough to make him more than a solid 1B/DH type, especially if he can’t figure out LHPs.
Cedeno is a solid utility infielder who plays good defense at SS/2B, but can’t hit. He’s a nice role player, but basically the definition of replacement level.
It’s the three pitchers that the team gave up that pushes the deal in Pittsburgh’s favor. Pribanic and Lorin were the teams 4th and 5th round picks in 2008, and both had impressed in their first year as professionals.
Pribanic’s an extreme groundball guy who throws strikes but lacks an out-pitch, so he profiles as a #5 starter or a good reliever. If his breaking ball improves, he could beat that upside, though.
Lorin’s a good command guy with a nice breaking ball and an average fastball, plus some projectability as a big guy (6′7/250) who hasn’t had much experience on the mound. If he adds a couple of MPH to his fastball, he could be a mid-rotation starter.
Adcock had struggled of late with his command, but as a 21-year-old with a decent fastball-curveball combination and the ability to get groundballs, he’s also an interesting arm. Getting him out of High Desert should give Pittsburgh a better idea of where he stands right now.
They’re all just decent pitching prospects instead of good ones, so the M’s gave up quantity over quality, but the old cliche about building a rotation by getting a ton of arms and seeing who sticks is really true. The M’s had done a good job of collecting an inventory of decent arms, and they just depleted that fairly heavily, while also giving up a LH power bat, for two guys with marginal value.
Pittsburgh is the easy winner of this deal, as they get some interesting young talent and shed some salary without losing much that will hurt them. The Mariners could still salvage this by moving Wilson before Friday’s deadline for a younger SS with more long term potential, but if they stand pat with Wilson as the team’s shortstop for 2009 and maybe 2010, color me disappointed.
Wednesday trade mongering, rosterbation, and related topics
Unrelated to Dave’s post on Clement, below. Stay cool.