The Next Five Days
The next five days for the M’s should be fairly interesting, if only to see how Wak handles the line-ups. Check out the pitchers the M’s are scheduled to go against between now and Tuesday.
Friday, Aaron Laffey, LHP
Saturday, Jeremy Sowers, LHP
Sunday, Cliff Lee, LHP
Monday, Ricky Romero, LHP
Tuesday, Mark Rzepczynski, LHP
A couple of months ago, this would have been fantastic news. Not so much now, with Beltre on the shelf and Gutierrez questionable due to the wall crash in Detroit. Now, the line-up features guys like Langerhans and Hannahan, in addition to Ichiro/Branyan/Griffey, so facing a lefty isn’t a benefit like it was earlier this year. And five straight lefties? This isn’t exactly the stretch you want to see when you’re trying to bust Russ Branyan out of a slump.
Then, there’s the issue of who goes to make room for RRS on the roster tonight. Chris Shelton is the guy without a job, but punting him before a string of LHPs doesn’t make a lot of sense. Roy Corcoran is the most vulnerable reliever, but if they’re going to use Jakubauskas to start on Sunday, then they’d be down to a six man bullpen for the weekend, and none of the Hyphen/Bedard/Jak trio can really be expected to give you 7+ innings. They could option Olson to Tacoma, but there’s a 10 day stay required in Triple-A after being optioned, so the M’s wouldn’t be able to bring him back if they moved a pitcher or two at the deadline, and they’re not likely to want to be put in that situation.
Lots of tough calls for the M’s this weekend.
This Is Getting Fun
51-44 after a couple more one run wins. No, the win 2-1 plan isn’t going to work long term, but wins are wins, and the M’s are getting the games they badly need. Now, if the Twins could just go ahead and do a number on the Angels, that’d be nice.
How about Ryan Langerhans, by the way? Another hit and an HBP today, plus a couple more nice catches in center field. It really is amazing that he languished in Triple-A to start the season. Every team in baseball could use a good defensive outfielder who understands the strike zone and has some power. He’s close to a league average major league player, and the M’s got him for free. These are the kinds of pickups that good teams make.
The guy playing next to Langerhans, though? Less impressive. And no, I don’t mean Ichiro. Whether the M’s decide to go for it or not, they should still move Wladimir Balentien to someone who wants to give him a chance to learn how to hit something besides a fastball. He’s just totally lost on soft stuff, and even against a LH pitcher, he looked abysmal trying to hit anything that moves. With Langerhans here and Saunders coming, Balentien doesn’t have a future in this organization. Offer him to the Pirates for Ian Snell or the Nationals for Josh Willingham or something.
David Aardsma, June + July: 21 innings, 7 walks, 29 K. Yeah, he still gives up a lot of scary fly balls, but a 4.00 K/BB rate with no platoon split? That’s a relief ace.
And finally, Washburn. What else is there to say? Keep pitching well, Jarrod. It’s only good news for us.
Game 95, Mariners at Tigers
Washburn vs French, Rain Delay, Start Time Unknown
Washburn gets a bit of a test today, agianst a line-up with some bats that can thump lefties and Franklin Gutierrez sitting on the bench. Comerica’s dimensions will help him, but Langerhans/Balentien are no Gutierrez/Chavez, so Wash is actually going to have to pitch well today.
With the Angels playing out of their minds, the M’s have to keep winning. 6+ games back and it’s sell time.
Ichiro, RF
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Sweeney, DH
Balentien, LF
Langerhans, CF
Johnson, C
Hannahan, 3B
Cedeno, SS
Game 94, Mariners at Tigers
It’s Felix Day! And Hyphen Time approaches.
Finding a fifth starter might be more problematic. We have until Saturday to figure that out, but neither Vargas nor Morrow are particularly appealing options. Vargas’ command has been off and Morrow gave up four runs in the first his last time out. The reports coming back were not all that positive.
In the meantime, FELIX.
RF Ichiro!
1B Branyan
2B Lopez
DH Griffey
LF Balentien
CF Langerhans
C Johnson
3B Hannahan
SS Cedeno
No, Really, Hyphen Time
Wak didn’t listen to me last week when I declared it was time for Ryan Rowland-Smith to displace Garrett Olson in the rotation. After last night’s drubbing, he came around to the obvious – Olson is out, Hyphen will start Friday night versus the Indians.
And there was much rejoicing.
What Will Felix Cost?
Happy Felix Day. After losing 1 1/2 games in the standings last night, we badly need a Felix Day. The way he’s been pitching this year, I think we’d all like to see Felix Day made a Seattle holiday for a long, long time. But, as we sit and watch the Blue Jays consider trading Roy Halladay and the Indians listen to offers for Cliff Lee, the reality is that the Mariners are going to be in the same position a year from now.
The M’s control Felix for 2010 and 2011 before he heads for free agency. Since they were never able to sign him to a multiyear contract, he’s got significant leverage as he heads towards his second season of arbitration eligibility. The 4+ years of service time guys usually do pretty well, making ~60% of their free agent value. Felix is easily going to command at least $10 million if the team goes to arbitration with him this winter, so the chance to lock him up long term at bargain rates have gone by the wayside.
What would it take for the M’s to re-sign Felix to a multi-year contract this winter, assuming he would be willing to delay his free agency by a few years? For a baseline, let’s look at some recent 4+ year arb. eligible pitchers who signed long term deals and gave up at least one year of free agency in the process.
Zack Greinke, 2009: Signed a 4 year, $38 million deal.
Dontrelle Willis, 2008: Signed a 3 year, $29 million deal
Scott Kazmir, 2008: Signed a 3 year, $28.5 million deal with a fourth year team option for $13.25 million.
I see a trend. The going rate for talented, young starting pitchers signing contracts as a 4+ year service time guy has been $9.5 million per year. Of course, none of those guys were coming off a season like Felix is having right now, so he’d certainly command a premium above and beyond that kind of deal. Factoring in some salary inflation and Felix’s superiority to recent comparables, you’d think that the M’s would have to start by offering something like $50 million over four years to get in the conversation.
The problem, though, is there’s very little incentive for Felix to sign a deal like that. He’s almost certainly going to get $10+ million for 2010 if he goes through the arbitration process. 4+ year service time guys usually get about 60% of their free agent value, and Felix is a $20-$25 million per year pitcher. Then, in 2011, he’d be looking at a salary around $15 to $18 million.
If Felix doesn’t sign a multi-year deal this winter, he’s in line for about $25 to $30 million for 2010 and 2011, assuming he stays healthy. A 4 year, $50 million offer would be valuing his first two years of free agency at about $12.5 million apiece, which is probably half of what he’d actually get. Yes, there’s a discount involved in getting some financial security up front, but we can’t realistically expect him to leave 50% of his free agent salary on the table when he’s only two years away from cashing in with a massive, long term deal.
Felix would probably want to value those two years at something closer to $15-$18 million apiece. That would require a 4 year, $60 million offer this winter. That would put him in line with what players like A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe got on annual basis as a free agent. In other words, he’d be accelerating his earnings by taking a deal that is suitable to significantly inferior talents.
4 years, $60 million. It’s a big offer – well above what the Greinke/Kazmir/Willis triumvirate were able to negotiate. But that’s my feeling on what it would take to lock Felix up this winter, so that 12 months from now, we’re not the team trying to figure out if we should listen to offers for our Cy Young contender.
Game 93, Mariners at Tigers
So the Mariners are going up against rookie right-hander Rick Porcello, who has struggled a bit with his command this year. What’s that you say? Didn’t he beat the Mariners anyway earlier in the year?
April 19th @ Seattle: 7.0 IP, 5 H (HR), R, 3/0 K/BB, 11/7 G/F
And he’s only become a more extreme groundball pitcher in the past few months? And the Tigers plan on running out an infield of Inge-Everett-Polanco-Cabrera? Shoot.
Lineup:
RF Ichiro!
1B Branyan
2B Lopez
DH Griffey
CF Gutierrez
LF Langerhans
C Johjima
3B Hannahan
SS Cedeno
Rangers, Angels, why couldn’t you two have lost more games recently?
Edit: cdowley in the comments reminds me that reports earlier in the day said that Josh Wilson will be designated for assignment to make way for Mike Sweeney. We’re keeping Shelton around, it seems.
Fun Thought Of The Day
In thinking about what the M’s should do at the trade deadline, I had a thought that hasn’t been discussed anywhere else that I know of. Given the saturation of coverage the buy or sell decision has gotten, that’s pretty rare indeed, so I figured I’d share this outside-the-box* piece of thinking with you all.
On July 29th, the M’s are scheduled to play the Blue Jays at 1:40 pm at Safeco Field. The tentative pitching match-up: Erik Bedard vs Roy Halladay.
If those pitchers take the hill that afternoon, you have to think the M’s are something like 25% to win, 75% to lose. Halladay is that good. Take Halladay out of the picture, and our win probability probably rises to 50%, maybe higher depending on who replaces him. So, having Roy Halladay get traded before he starts against the Mariners next Wednesday would be worth something like 1/4 of a win to the M’s.
Given the team’s current place in the standings, wins are extremely valuable. Teams pay $4 to $5 million per win in free agency, but the marginal value of a win is significantly higher once teams have figured out that they’re in contention by the summer. In reality, the marginal value of a win to the Mariners is probably more like $6-$8 million right now. You could potentially argue that it’s worth up to $10 million, depending on how much revenue you think the team could generate from a playoff series at Safeco this fall.
So, 25% of one win is worth somewhere between $1.5 and $2.5 million to the M’s. Split the difference, and we’ll just call it $2 million. If the M’s want to really think outside the box as the deadline approaches, they’ll figure out which team is the leading contender to acquire Halladay, call that GM up, and offer him $2 million in cash to get the deal done on July 28th. Call it the We-Don’t-Want-To-Have-To-Face-Him bounty.
Perhaps the most important trade the M’s could be involved with is one where no players from their organization move at all. Don’t worry about improving the roster – bribe Ruben Amaro to improve his!
*I’m 95% kidding. But man, it would be fun to see Selig’s reaction if he found out that one GM was trying to bribe another into making a deal that didn’t involve his team.
Explaining Away Regression To The Mean
Odds are you’ve read a story lately about how Russell Branyan is struggling as he reaches the summer of his first season as a full-time player. After a monstrous first half, he’s not hitting as well lately, and the explanations are pouring in. He’s tired. His back hurts. Pitchers are figuring him out. Managers have figured out how to shift against him and he hasn’t adjusted. If you’re looking for a reason for Branyan’s struggles, you have a buffet of choices to blame them on.
Of course, there’s a simpler explanation – it’s just natural regression to the mean.
In April, Branyan posted a .405 batting average on balls in play. In May, it was .391. These are outrageously high totals that nobody in history has been able to sustain, much less a first baseman whose hardest hit balls end up in the seats. There was basically no chance that he’d be able to continue getting balls in play to find a hole 39% of the time. We talked about this quite a bit, warning that regression was coming. A guy who strikes out as much as Branyan does can’t hit .300. It’s almost impossible.
Indeed, regression did come. In June, his BABIP was a more normal .286, right around where we’d expect Branyan’s true talent level to be, based on his skillset. His monthly line was still a good .265/.376/.590, but the batting average didn’t get inflated by balls avoiding gloves in record numbers. July, though, has been uglier – .180/.288/.426, giving rise to all the various theories for the cause of the slump.
Branyan’s BABIP in July? .200. His other, more stable numbers?
13.6% BB% in July, 12.8% BB% for the season
33% K% in July, 28.5% K% for the season
.246 ISO in July, .292 ISO for the season
His walks and strikeouts are barely up and his power is very slightly down. Over 70 plate appearances, we’re talking about basically no difference at all. And, the extra strikeouts are actually just due to some coin flip calls by the home plate ump – his contact rate (69% in July) is higher than it was April-June (67%). There’s literally nothing to worry about here – Branyan’s slump is just normal BABIP variation. He got some good bounces in April and May and he’s got some bad bounces in July. He’s the exact same player he was, and reacting to the results will simply lead to making a bad assumption about what’s going on.
But this happens all the time. Not just with Branyan, but across the board. Remember Sean White’s struggles a few weeks ago? The local media decided it was because he was getting tired after being worked too hard for the first few months. White himself said he felt great, and had no problems, but that didn’t matter. He was giving up hits, and that meant he was running on fumes.
Sean White’s BABIP by month: .182, .182, .333 (he’s exhausted!), .125
White drastically overachieved the first two months of the season thanks to some good defense and good luck. The results started to match his talent level in June, and this was blamed on overwork. He’s been lucky again in July, but there’s no reason given to why he’s no longer tired. And remember, White claimed he felt great the entire time.
Players understand how this stuff works. Branyan was asked about why he’s slumping, and his response was basically “This stuff happens. The season is cyclical. Sometimes you run hot, sometimes you run cold.” (paraphrase because I can’t find the actual quote right now)
For whatever reason, though, people just can’t accept that there is not always a primary driving reason for a change in results. That’s why we get stuff like “so and so has changed his batting stance and is now hitting .500 for the last two weeks”, but you never hear about the new stance again after he goes back to hitting .260. Or, from a Mariner-centric point of view, you’ll hear a lot of talk about how the M’s need to keep their pitching rotation strong to keep the bullpen from regressing due to overwork.
Bad news – the bullpen is going to regress either way. Whether the M’s keep Bedard and Washburn or not, there a bunch of relievers on this team with numbers that are unsustainable. The M’s bullpen has an ERA that is 0.69 runs lower than their FIP, and while the defense is a decent chunk of that, there’s a luck component in there too. Sean White and Chris Jakubauskas are running crazy low BABIPs. 1.8% of Aardsma’s fly balls are leaving the park. These numbers are going to regress. They have to.
And when they do, you’re going to hear explanations for why. White will be tired again. Jakubauskas will have lost the command of his fastball. Aardsma will feeling the pressures of his first pennant race as a closer. We could write the stories right now. But, in the end, it’s just going to be simple regression to the mean, just like we saw with Branyan in June. He ran lucky for two months, had a normal Branyan month, and now is running unlucky. It doesn’t mean anything.
The sooner that we can get the world to embrace the concept of random variance, the better. Results fluctuate wildly in small samples due to uncontrollable factors. That’s just a fact of life, and when we’re forming our opinions, we need to realize just how powerful regression really is.
Rob Johnson’s Offense
When the conversation turns to Rob Johnson, inevitably you can bet you’re about to have a discussion about the value of a catcher beyond the things that we’re currently able to quantify. Catcher ERA, belief systems, language barries… you know the drill by now. I’d imagine most of us cringe and turn away when someone says “let’s talk about Rob Johnson”, because the topic is getting old and boring, with neither side having much new to say.
So, why don’t we talk about his offense instead?
Johnson’s seasonal batting line isn’t good – .209/.278/.340 adds up to a .271 wOBA. Among catchers with at least 150 plate appearances, only Jeff Mathis and Dioner Navarro have been worse offensively this year. Over a full catcher season (~500 PA), Johnson’s offensive performance to date would be worth about 30 runs less than a league average hitter. That’s bad – for context, Russell Branyan’s current level of hitting would be worth about 35 runs above a league average hitter over a full season, so Johnson essentially cancels out Branyan at the plate.
Given his struggles at the plate, and the team’s inability to score runs on a consistent basis, it is easy to see why he’s become such a lightning rod for criticism among fans who don’t value the intangible “belief system” stuff as much as Wakamatsu does. However, if we take a closer look at his offense, perhaps there is more reason for hope than previously believed.
Of Johnson’s 32 hits this year, 16 of them have been for extra bases. When he makes contact, he has the ability to hit the ball hard. He doesn’t have much in the way of loft power, as he’s more of a ground ball/line drive guy whose fly balls are usually easy targets for the outfielders, but he has the ability to drive the ball into the gaps or down the lines. Particularly if he gets a fastball – there’s enough bat speed there for him to turn on it and get himself to second base.
His problems at the plate are an over-aggressive approach (he swings at 30% of pitches outside the strike zone), an inability to handle good breaking stuff, and some holes in his swing that make it tough for him to make contact on pitches inside. Early in the season, pitchers could pound him with fastballs in and sliders away, and he was an easy strikeout. Over the last few weeks, though, he’s made adjustments at the plate.
He’s not chasing those pitches he has problems with early in the count nearly as often anymore. In July, he’s swung at just 41% of the pitches he’s seen, a number comparable to a normal month for Franklin Gutierrez. By increasing his selectivity of what to swing at, he’s getting himself into better situations, and it’s paying off. From April through June, he drew 8 walks in 132 plate appearances – in July, he’s drawn six walks in 39 plate appearances. Perhaps more importantly, he’s only struck out six times this month, for a 15.3% K% – he was at 24%, 26%, and 29% the previous three months.
In comparable amounts of playing time, his monthly BB/K rates are as follows:
April: 1/11
May: 4/12
June: 3/12
July: 6/6
Obviously, the last one sticks out. For the last few weeks, he hasn’t been a chaser, and pitchers are finding that getting him out would require a good pitch. They can’t just throw pitches he can’t hit and let him get himself out, as he’s simply taking that option away from them with his more selective approach at the plate.
Pitchers will adjust, and they’ll start throwing Johnson better pitches in the strike zone. Just because he’s had a good few weeks doesn’t mean he’s now a good hittter – he still has those holes in his swing, and while he’s doing a better job of taking pitches, he still likes to swing the bat, so don’t expect his July performance to be sustainable going forward. But, he’s shown that he can adapt at the major league level, and he’s going to force pitchers to come up with a new game plan to get him out.
The gap power, the improved selectivity at the plate and better contact rates – these are encouraging signs. There’s a reason his ZIPS projection for the rest of the season is .254/.309/.347, a significantly better performance than what he’s put up to date. Even without getting too excited about a small sample hot streak in July, there are legitimate reasons to expect Johnson to be just a not-good hitter instead of a terrible one going forward.
And, realistically, if Johnson is capable of a .290 wOBA (which is what ZIPS projects), then he’s the best option the team has behind the plate. Rob Johnson might not be the kind of catcher that statistical analysts love, but there are worse things to have than a catcher who pitchers love while whacking a double or drawing a walk every now and then.