Site mal-age
Hey all. About 12h someone changed our footer.php to include a vast number of hidden, spammy links, and I’ve been chasing it since. I just blew away the footer entirely, sooo uh we’ll see. That said, I’ve got zero experience at forensics and I’m still unsure exactly how this happened. I’ll spend some more time on this later, or throw up my hands and sell my shares to Rupert Murdoch or something.
Who’s the real Jose Lopez?
Yuniesky Betancourt has been a frequent target for criticism this year, but in terms of wins, Jose Lopez is hurting us even more. The M’s are 1.7 wins below replacement level in the middle infield so far (-1.0 for Lopez, -0.7 for Betancourt). Even with Betancourt’s terrible defense and complete lack of clue at the plate, Lopez has been the worst player on the team so far.
Last year, Lopez made significant progress offensively, encouraging many of us who’ve believed in his potential. While he wasn’t going to be more than average defensively, he was still relatively young and cheap, an above-average hitter for his position, and maybe he could still add some power as he matured. This year, he’s fallen off a cliff. So what’s happened?
There are a lot of ways to look at this, each of which is just one part of the puzzle. But put together, they suggest why replacing Lopez needs to be just as much a priority as replacing Betancourt.
Let’s start with the “Lopez came into his own in 2008” theory. As Dave has frequently pointed out, you can’t just ignore his performance in previous years. A lot of people have wanted to excuse his horrible second half of 2007 because his brother died in June and he had a hard time concentrating on baseball after that. That wasn’t the real Jose Lopez, we thought. I admit to believing that myself a bit. Well, we’re far enough into the season that sample sizes aren’t quite so small anymore, and this Jose Lopez is a lot like that one:
Jose Lopez, post-ASB 2007: .213/.238/.281
Jose Lopez, 2009: .216/.259/.307
Pretty close, and if you added in his slightly-better-but-still-bad performance from mid-June (when his brother was killed) to mid-July 2007, the two are virtually the same. Some of that’s bad luck (identical .232 BABIP), but even allowing for some regression, it’s the real Lopez now and it was the real Lopez then. I’m not saying 2008 wasn’t real too, but it’s increasingly looking like Lopez’s peak, not something we can count on him to repeat year after year.
Other things are going on that are new this year, though. Here are some batted ball numbers for Lopez as a full-time player:
| Season | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB |
| 2006 | 18.2% | 48.6% | 33.2% | 5.7% |
| 2007 | 17.0% | 45.7% | 37.4% | 6.4% |
| 2008 | 20.3% | 44.1% | 35.6% | 8.2% |
| 2009 | 19.9% | 34.0% | 46.2% | 4.2% |
He’s hitting line drives the same as always, but his groundball and flyball percentages have completely flipped. Meanwhile, those flyballs are turning into home runs at the lowest rate of his career. I’m not sure what’s going on here, but it’s as if last year convinced him to change his swing to go for more power, while at the same time the power itself has disappeared. We may still see some drift back to Lopez’s career norms, but in general these percentages tend to stabilize pretty quickly, and we’re approaching the point where we have to look at this as a meaningful change. I’m not saying the way for him to be successful is to beat the ball into the ground like Ichiro, but Lopez will never be a big power hitter. If he thinks he is, we’re in for a lot more fly balls to the warning track.
Meanwhile, there’s the question of his defense. His UZR/150 at second base:
2006: 5.0
2007: 1.4
2008: -4.8
2009: -11.8
You have to consider fielding metrics over multiple years, so we can’t just conclude that he’s as bad as it looks this year, but he’s certainly no better than average. And you definitely have to be worried about the appearance of a trend here (much like Betancourt). The real Jose Lopez is a below-average second baseman, and the sooner we can upgrade at that position, the better.
Zduriencik Speaks
Former Seattle P-I writer Jon Paul Morosi got some quotes from Jack Zduriencik about the team and what his feelings are on the roster. Here’s the important quotes.
“We’re not in any hurry to do anything,” Zduriencik said earlier this week. “You talk to GMs all the time, just casual conversations. Most of the time, it doesn’t go anywhere. There haven’t been any offers on the table yet.”
“Erik’s been good — really good. I’ve been very happy with Erik Bedard. His stuff’s been really good, really crisp. … I wasn’t here (last year), so I don’t really know anything about that firsthand. He was in an organization (Baltimore) for a long period of time, had to switch, go all the way across the country, and then he wasn’t healthy. Those things worked against him. … But he’s real happy now. He’s got a smile on his face.”
“Right now, my investment is in this season,” he said. “We’re doing everything we can to keep ourselves in this race.”
Nothing overly surprising yet. The M’s aren’t going to publicly pull the plug on the team right as they head into Anaheim for a three game series. But, assuming this weekend doesn’t go perfectly for the M’s, Jack knows that he’ll wake up on Monday with a team that has a less than 10% chance of making the playoffs, and there are some teams out there getting antsy to make a deal for pitching. The first GM to agree to trade a starting pitcher is probably going to be the guy who wins this summer. Let’s hope Zduriencik is that guy.
Oh, and one other note on the article. Morosi throws this comment out there:
When the time comes, Seattle will probably look to acquire a young, power-hitting outfielder. Endy Chavez and Wladimir Balentien have formed the least productive left-field platoon in the majors by OPS, so that would be the obvious place to add a big bat.
This incorrect sentiment is echoed by John McGrath in his “blow up the M’s” piece for the News Tribune today, and will be repeated over and over all summer long, I’m sure. The last thing the M’s need to be trading for is an outfielder. As we mentioned this morning, Saunders is knocking on the door down in Triple-A, and the team is extremely likely to be drafting Dustin Ackley in two weeks. Beyond those two, Balentien’s still got some fans in the organization, and the team has outfielders coming out their ears at Double-A and below. It is the position of the most depth in the entire system.
The M’s do not need any more outfielders. They need infielders, specifically 2B/SS/3B, and pitchers. The team has more outfielders than they know what to do with.
The 2010 Rookies
As we look towards 2010, we can be fairly sure that the roster is going to look significantly different than it does today. Bedard, Beltre, Washburn, Branyan, Griffey, Sweeney, Chavez, and Batista are all free agents at the end of the year, and we’re pretty sure that the team won’t be bringing back both of Lopez/Betancourt as their middle infield. It’s quite feasible that both could go away. Johjima’s future in Seattle is in question as well.
In all, we’re looking at around ten players being replaced for next year’s team. That’s a lot of turnover, and those open positions create opportunities for guys in the organization to step up and grab a spot on the team. While the M’s farm system is short on upper level pitching, there are five guys in Triple-A who could each make a pretty good case for a spot on next year’s team: Jeff Clement, Mike Carp, Michael Saunders, Adam Moore, and Matt Tuiasosopo.
However, there’s basically no chance that the team goes with five rookies in the line-up at the same time next year. They aren’t doing the tear-down style of rebuild, and the goal will certainly be to contend for the division title next year. Despite all five having pretty decent cases for being major league ready, Wak isn’t going to want to break in five rookies while trying to win the AL West. I would suspect that the team will probably limit themselves to two or three rookies, at most, in the line-up next year.
However, you can make a pretty good case that none of these guys should spend 2010 in Triple-A.
Clement obviously has nothing left to prove in the PCL – another trip through Tacoma won’t do him any good, and it’s hard to see the M’s actually sending him back there again.
Carp has cooled off after a monstrous April, but he’s still showing both power and patience, as a left-handed first baseman, he fits one of the things the team will need next year. His bat isn’t as good as Clement’s, but he’s ahead of him defensively as a 1B, and we know that Wak highly values defense.
Saunders has shown significant improvement in improving his contact, which was the big knock on him coming into the season. As a left-handed hitting outfielder with good athleticism and gap power, he’s a perfect fit for LF in Safeco.
Moore’s move up to the PCL hasn’t slowed him down at all, as his numbers in Triple-A are basically a dead ringer for his numbers in Double-A. While he doesn’t have the defensive reputation of Rob Johnson, his offense is significantly better, as he actually has a pretty solid approach at the plate.
Finally, there’s Tui, who is on the DL with elbow problems but opened a lot of eyes with a strong spring training. His defense at third is never going to be Beltre level, but given his improvement over the last year and the way that he impressed Wak, he’d seemingly have an inside edge on the open third base position for next year.
From a micro level, there’s a pretty decent case to be made for all five of these guys grabbing jobs next year. However, there’s just no way the M’s go into the year with Tui at third, Saunders in left, Carp at first, Clement at DH, and Moore behind the plate. The club will consider those guys for jobs on an individual basis, but they’re not handing all of those jobs over to the Triple-A brigade next year.
So, if you don’t want to give them major league jobs at the same time, but you also don’t want to make them languish in Tacoma for no reason, there’s just one solution – trades. As the July 31st deadline approaches, the M’s will certainly be more focused on making deals for their free agents to be, but don’t rule out the chance that Zduriencik takes advantage of the trading season to shift some parts around.
Be More Encouraged
In Tacoma tonight:
Ryan Rowland-Smith – 5 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 3 strikeouts, 81 pitches. They’ll probably give him another rehab start, but it doesn’t look like he really needs it. If the team wants to trade Bedard or Washburn after this weekend, the rotation replacement is ready.
Adam Moore – 2 for 3 with a home run. It was his first longball since joining the Rainiers.
In West Tennessee tonight:
Josh Fields – 1 inning, 0 hits, 0 runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout. It was the first time he’d pitched since May 5th, after the team shut him down with “dead arm”. He wasn’t exactly sharp, as he only threw seven strikes in 19 pitches, but he miraculously got three outs anyway.
By the way, High Desert and Lancaster are currently tied at 0 in the 7th inning. This might not be encouraging, as I think scoreless games between those two teams are a sign of the apocalypse.
Be Encouraged
How quickly the organization can turn into a winner essentially lies in the ability of our front office to identify and acquire talent from outside the organization, because there isn’t enough quality on hand that the team can just wait for it to develop and turn into a championship level club. How has our new regime done so far in evaluating talent and bringing it into the organization?
Russ Branyan, +1.7 wins, #1 among position players
Franklin Gutierrez, +1.0 wins, #3 among position players
Endy Chavez, +0.3 wins, #4 among position players
Ken Griffey Jr, +0.2 wins, #5 among position players
Mike Sweeney, -0.2 wins, #11 among position players
Ronny Cedeno, -0.2 wins, #12 among position players
David Aardsma, +0.6 wins, #1 among relief pitchers
Jason Vargas, +0.2 wins, #5 among starting pitchers
Garrett Olson, -0.1 win, #6 among starting pitchers
Among the players on the major league roster that were acquired since Zduriencik and crew took over, the M’s essentially filled six roster spots – CF, 1B, DH, High Leverage Reliever, Utility Infielder, 1/2 LF, 1/2 SP – and gotten +3.8 wins from those spots. The other 19 roster spots that were filled by players that were already in the organization when Zduriencik was hired have combined for +4.0 wins.
Zduriencik’s guys have gotten about 20% of the playing time and accumulated about 50% of the team’s win values.
I think he’s pretty good at this spotting talent thing.
Draft Stuff
With less than two weeks before the draft kicks off (day one begins Tuesday, June 9th), we’ll start increasing our draft coverage. Today, we’ll start by featuring some of the content from the main folks covering the draft.
Baseball America unveiled their Top 100 today, and they’ll be releasing numbers 101-200 tomorrow. The top 100 rankings are available for everyone, while the scouting reports are subscriber only. If you’re at all interested in minor league/draft coverage, BA is worth the money. Plus, supporting them gives them additional revenue to give Conor Glassey a big raise.
Keith Law has a Top 100 and a first round projection, both of which are only available to ESPN Insider subscribers. The draft blog that Keith and Jason Churchill have been running is very good, including tons of video of these guys so you can see them for yourselves.
Finally, MLB.com has a ton of draft reports from the major league scouting bureau, including video. The content/price ratio is unbeatable, but the reports are more geared towards the player’s skills, so you won’t get any of the rumors attaching players to teams or projecting who goes where.
For those who don’t want to be bothered to do research themselves and just want a summary, here’s the Mariner-centric thoughts as of today.
Washington is not passing on Strasburg. Don’t bother hoping.
Pretty much everyone agrees that Dustin Ackley represents the next best risk/reward package in the draft after Strasburg. There are some high school pitchers that theoretically have higher ceilings, but none of them have established themselves as genuine phenoms whose upside can overcome the tremendous risk with drafting an 18-year-old arm. Despite the talk that the draft is unpredictable after #1, pretty much everyone agrees that Ackley is the logical choice at #2. Left-handed, high on base percentage line drive hitter, won’t need much time in the minors – he fits the M’s needs almost perfectly.
Trying to project names for the #27 and #33 picks is next to impossible, given the uncertainty over how the first round will play out. However, smart money is on college pitching. The M’s have basically nothing in terms of upper level starting pitching prospects, and this is a deep draft for college arms. There are lots of scenarios where the M’s could end up with a guy like Rex Brothers at #27, and it’s not very often that you can peg a college lefty starter who throws 96 at the end of the first round. Especially if the team takes Ackley at #2, I’d imagine they focus on pitching at #27 and #33.
Oh, and MLB is slashing the bonus recommendations again, trying to force an across the board 10% cut in signing bonuses. It’s not going to work, and will instead just lead to approximately no one signing before the deadline on August 15th. I love baseball, but MLB does a lot of stupid stuff.
Game 48, Mariners at A’s
Bedard vs Cahill, 12:35 pm.
The A’s offense isn’t very good, and Bedard is. Quick, someone make sure that Ruben Amaro and Kenny Williams are watching this game.
Let The Sell Off Begin
When the Mariners decided to recall Guillermo Quiroz from Double-A to backup Rob Johnson, passing over Jamie Burke, it signaled that a decision on the direction of the 2009 season has been made. Quoting Baker:
In what he termed “a difficult call to make” Wakamatsu had a phone conversation with Burke earlier today and told him the team is looking to go in a younger direction for now.
When the manager is telling the veteran players in the organization that playing time decisions are being based on age, rather than expected performance, it signals that the team has shifted the priority from winning this year to winning in the future. Given where they stand in the division (seven games out of first place, ~7% chance of making the playoffs), it’s the right call. It’s time to pull the plug on the 2009 season, and make moves that reflect the reality that the franchise is putting 2010 ahead of 2009.
The team should move Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn as soon as possible. As we’ve talked about previously, these two are volatile assets, and the reward of moderately improving the return in trade as we get closer to the deadline is outweighed by the extra risk of collapse that both carry with them. Once Adrian Beltre shows a sustained hot stretch that pulls his numbers up, you probably have to move him too – his struggles so far have made him unlikely to be a Type A free agent at years end, which reduces the value in letting him leave via free agency.
Ship Miguel Batista to a contender looking for bullpen help (the Yankees?) and Endy Chavez to a team that needs a legitimate center fielder (the Braves?). And yes, put Russ Branyan on the market – for as well as he’s playing, he’s not a great bet to sustain this level of offense (.382 batting average on balls in play), and the team has several guys in Tacoma who could use an extended second half shot at the major leagues.
Also, Mike Sweeney should get a stint on the disabled list to allow the team to give Chris Shelton a look in the majors.
The shift from “we’re hoping to contend” to “we’re playing for next year” brings the necessity for some significant roster turnover. The team that takes the field in Oakland today won’t be together for much longer. Calling up Guillermo Quiroz seems fairly innocuous, but the process that led to that decision being made will also lead to the beginning of the shift away from playoff aspirations.
Let the sell off begin.
Game 47, Mariners at Athletics
Washburn, who may be the New, Improved Washburn or may yet discover he has a hangnail before gametime v. Braden.
Also, Quiroz up to replace the DL’d Johjima.