On the Wilson not rumor rumor
Sure, it’s titled “Improving Mariners looking to trade Yuniesky Betancourt to the Pirates for Jack Wilson?” but it’s a lot like when one of those tech rumor sites runs “Google in talks to buy Alaska Airlines?”
Or, to quote the article:
Will this deal happen? Don’t know. But it makes sense on many levels and I’m told it’s been discussed.
Been discussed as “internal discussions about trading Yuni” “internal discussions about trading Yuni for Wilson” “preliminary discussions about what it would take to get Wilson” “heated discussions about what else would need to be included in a Yuni-Wilson trade”?
Unclear. And until that’s clear, it’s not fair to say this is a trade rumor. As he says, it’s Baker’s analysis of why the deal would make sense plus that little “discussions” teaser.
If/when this becomes more substantive, we’ll opine in depth, I promise.
The Problem With The Right-Handed Line-Up
As you’ve heard me talk about incessantly since the season started, the Mariners line-up is too right-handed. With Wladimir Balentien replacing Endy Chavez as the regular left fielder, the M’s normal line-up now includes six right handed bats (Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt, Johjima/Johnson, Gutierrez, and Balentien) and three left-handed bats (Ichiro, Griffey, and Branyan). Exacerbating the problem is that the six RH bats are very similar types of hitters. Gutierrez is the only one who won’t actively get himself out chasing pitches out of the strike zone, and all of them prefer to pull the ball when hitting for power. There are no Edgar Martinez’s in that group – it’s a bunch of aggressive bats who can hit something straight but struggle with pitches that move.
Not surprisingly, the M’s offense goes to sleep pretty much any time the opposing team throws a right-handed starter. The quality level hasn’t mattered – whether it was Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett, Scott Feldman, Bartolo Colon, Vicente Padilla, Shane Loux, Trevor Cahill, Nick Blackburn.. they all look like aces against the M’s.
But why?
To answer that question, I’ve turned to Dave Allen, one of the newest and best Pitch F/x analysts out there today. He’s doing yeoman’s work over at The Baseball Analysts, helping take Pitch F/x analysis to another level. I asked Dave to use the Pitch F/x data to help reveal some of the issues that the M’s line-up currently has against RHPs. We also get into the pitching of Felix and Shawn Kelley. The transcript of our conversation is below.
Minor League Wrap (5/11-17/09)
No intro this week… I was up a bit late working on this, and probably won’t be in to answer questions until late either. This is perhaps a good thing, as you miss any possible references I could make to “statement games”.
To the jump!
Read more
Quick!
Was this a statement game? Why or why not?
Game 38, Red Sox at Mariners
Masterson v Vargas.
Ha ha ha ha it’s funny because I end up sitting near her every time I go to a Mariner-Red Sox game and now I don’t go.
Game 37, Red Sox at Mariners
Beckett v Olson. 7:10.
As much as I’m an M’s fan, it’s going to take a lot to produce a better moment than John Lackey getting tossed in two pitches. That’s just cool. Interestingly, the Sox-M’s game wasn’t the longest odds of the day in Vegas: you could get that for the Mets over SF, NY over the Twins, and Tampa over Cleveland (Twins… value bet?).
Anyway, my point: sure, Olson got called up just over a week ago. But last night the M’s squeaked out a game they didn’t have much business winning. No reason they couldn’t do it again. Hopefully it won’t involve getting Ichiro! plunked.
Two things
Ichiro hits two home runs in a game. Yuniesky Betancourt draws two walks in a game. From this, we must obviously conclude two things:
1) We should discuss trading Ichiro more often
2) Betancourt should be benched more often
Game 36, Red Sox at Mariners
Chris Jakubauskas v Jon Lester. Please stop the losing please….
Anyway! Great day for a game. Baker reports Morrow’s not going to close until he works his way back into the position (Street reports otherwise). Baker also brings us photos of Larry the Cable Guy wardering around on-field before the game (who (Larry)deserves this response).
Quick Notes
We were asked to put this up by someone who works for the construction company doing work near Safeco.
If you are heading to a Red Sox/ Mariners game this weekend in Seattle give yourself extra time to get to the game. There is a lot of construction near the park, between Safeco Field and Qwest Field on Royal Brougham Way and on First Avenue, south of the ballpark. Both streets are open but there are significant lane closures. It’s best to avoid Royal Brougham unless you plan to park in the Qwest Field garage. There are numerous surface parking lots north of Safeco closer to downtown that aren’t too far of a walk to the park. You can get more information at www.wsdot.wa.gov/projects/sr519/
Also, I conducted a short interview with NESN to preview the M’s-Red Sox series.
Finally, we’ll be providing more details in the near future, but you’re going to want to be in Seattle on August 8th for our next USSM event.
Should The Team Do The Unthinkable?
On Monday, my latest piece for the Wall Street Journal went up, and it dealt with whether four organizations should consider trading the guys who have been the face of their franchise. David Ortiz, Scott Kazmir, and Travis Hafner were all great players in the recent past, but all of them have pretty significant problems right now – Ortiz has gotten old very quickly, while Kazmir and Hafner have seen their abilities reduced by injuries. All three of them come with significant contracts, and their trade value has plummeted in the past twelve months. They’re bordering on becoming liabilities who wouldn’t be claimed on waivers, given the financial obligations and their performances.
Those weren’t the only three I mentioned in the article, though. Ichiro was also included, though he’s in a different situation from the other three. Unlike Ortiz, Kazmir, and Hafner, Ichiro isn’t broken. He isn’t a guy who is underperforming his contract. Over the last three years, Ichiro’s on field value has been worth $18.2 million, $23.6 million, and $18.8 million. Since 2002, he’s been worth $118.2 million and been paid $69.5 million. Ichiro has been one of the best return on investments the M’s have ever made.
On average, he’s been a +5 win player for the M’s since arriving in the states, which makes him one of the top 10 or 15 players in the game. Consistent +5 win players are really hard to find, and Ichiro’s been a steady, excellent player since he got here. We’ve constantly defended Ichiro against the ignorance of those who claim that he’s overrated, because those people were massively wrong. Ichiro is a really, really good baseball player.
However, if there was ever going to be a time to trade Ichiro, this summer might be it.
As much as we love the guy and what he’s given to the team, there are signs of decline. In his first five seasons in the U.S., Ichiro posted an Isolated Slugging percentage of .100 or higher four times. He hasn’t done it since, going four straight seasons with essentially no power. He’s drawn three unintentional walks so far this year, putting him on pace to draw ~16 for the season. He usually draws between 25 and 35. He’s been caught stealing three times in eight attempts so far this year after being thrown out four times in 47 attempts last year.
During his first four years in the majors, he posted a wOBA of .360, making him a significantly above average hitter. During the last 3 seasons and the start of this year, he’s posted a wOBA of .348, making him a good but not great hitter. 12 points of wOBA adds up to around six runs over the course of a full season, so that offensive dropoff is equal to a loss of about half a win per year.
The 35 year old Ichiro isn’t quite as good as the 28 year old Ichiro. That shouldn’t be a big surprise, honestly. He’s still very good, one of the best right fielders in the game, but we haven’t seen the MVP caliber Ichiro since 2004, and it’s probably not a very good bet that we’ll ever see him perform at that level again.
So, the Mariners new management faces a summer of transition, where they continue to try to remake the roster to eliminate the errors of the past regime. During this transition, they’ll have to evaluate how each player fits on the roster going forward. That process needs to include the understanding that Ichiro is probably more like a +3.5 to +4 win player going forward than the +5 win player he’s been historically. For this team, right now, should they hang onto a 35-year-old +4 win outfielder?
I think there’s an argument to be made that perhaps they should not. The organization is absolutely swimming in outfielders. Besides Gutierrez and Balentien (who are under team control through 2012 and 2014 respectively), Michael Saunders is a 22-year-old left-handed bat with average or better tools across the board. You could go into 2010 with those three as your starting outfield and feel fairly comfortable in their abilities. The team is likely to draft Dustin Ackley, a polished left-handed hitter who should transition to CF or LF as a professional, with the #2 pick in about three weeks. The team also can count Gregory Halman, Ezequiel Carrera, Tyson Gillies, and Denny Almonte among the better prospects currently in the organization.
Assuming the team drafts Ackley, the M’s will have a remarkable surplus of upper level outfield talent. Not all of the prospects will pan out, but when you have this kind of sheer quantity of talent on hand, it’s a pretty good bet that you’ll get two or three decent players. Maybe it won’t be Ackley-Gutierrez-Saunders, but instead it turns out to be Carrera-Gillies-Halman. Or Balentien-Ackley-Saunders. The best way to get a couple of good major leaguers is to get a bunch of good minor leaguers, and that’s what the M’s have done in the outfield.
So, where does that leave Ichiro? If the ownership mandates that he’s untouchable, then you probably go into 2010 with Gutierrez in CF, Saunders and Balentien platooning in LF, and Ackley waiting for one of those spots to open up for 2011. Given that depth, you’re probably trading away guys like Halman for infield or pitching help. But, the question should be asked, is the team better off trading away Ichiro for those pieces and going younger in the outfield?
Maybe.
$17 million is a pretty significant chunk of the M’s budget. While Ichiro is worth $17 million a season, there’s a decent argument to be made that he’d have more on field value to a team that isn’t swimming in young outfielders and in the midst of a transition rebuild. Working on the assumption that the M’s are going to be sellers this summer, it’s at least worth considering whether the organization should consider moving Ichiro. He’s an All-Star player and one of the best in the game, but for where this organization is, the club might be better off trading him for help at SS/2B/SP, where the cupboard is basically empty.
I’m not advocating giving him away, and there’s obviously significant off the field considerations given the team’s ownership situation. But, for the first time since he’s been a Mariner, there’s actually an argument to be made that the team could survive without Ichiro.