Evaluating Wakamatsu’s use of the sac bunt
Wakamatsu’s use of the sac bunt before is worth a much more in-depth discussion than we’ve given it so far. The sac bunt is wildly overused, certainly, but it’s also an effective tool at times. What are the M’s doing with it?
There are eleven plays scored as sacrifice hits:
Gutierrez has four
Endy Chavez has three
Kenj, Yuni, Jose, and Rob Johnson have one
Now remember, that’s sacrifice bunts. If you bunt and get on, unless you reach by error it’s not counted as a sac. If the bunt is on for a pitch and then taken off, it’s not in the books so I can’t go back and look to see what the situation was. And (and this’ll be important later) if you bunt for a hit and it fails but advances the runner, you get the sac hit. So if Chavez has a green light to bunt for hits, the manager will take the credit and blame for sac bunts he didn’t order. I’m focusing here on the 11 SH on the book. Oh, and I’m going to use WPA a lot, so if you’re unfamiliar with that, run over here first.
And the last thing before we start, here’s my super-high-level summary of where I am on the bunt: no one but a pitcher should bunt before it’s late in the game, when it can be a good tool in close games.
So, by game:
4/7 vs. Twins
M’s visiting, lead 4-3, 9th inning, 1 out, runner on first. Chavez bunts to advance Balentien.
This is almost a wash. This was counter-intuitive to me, but bunting while ahead’s a much better move than you’d think. Late inning bunts in close games are better than bunting in the second. Not a great move, but Chavez isn’t a great hitter and Gutierrez was up next. WPA-wise, it’s -.011, as close to a wash as you get.
Okay bunt.
4/9 vs Twins
M’s visiting, lead 1-0, 3rd inning, no outs, runner on first. Gutierrez sacrifices Chavez to second.
Generally speaking, you should never play for one run at the expense of the chance at many runs until the sixth inning at the very earliest. The WPA here comes out to -.016, and that’s still not so bad. It’s “flied out with no one on†important. And if you think Gutierrez isn’t an average hitter, it starts to look good.
Okay bunt.
4/10 vs A’s
M’s visiting, lead 5-4, 9th inning, no outs, runner on first. Kenji bunts Branyan to second.
Again, bunting while ahead, surprisingly productive historically. Here we have to consider what we think of Kenji’s hitting. If you see Kenji as hopeless at the plate, this is a good move. If he’s an average hitter, it’s essentially a wash. I’m torn here: I really want to say that until we see Kenji hitting well again, you have to assume the bunt’s the right move. I’m going to say that, actually. The straight WPA is -.007
Good bunt.
4/11 vs A’s
M’s visiting, up 7-5, 9th inning, no outs, runner on first. Gutierrez bunts to advance Chavez.
Straight WPA here is -.003. It’s a wash if Gutierrez is average. Another batter dependent move, and certainly not a bad one.
Okay bunt.
4/14 vs Angels, bunt one
M’s at home, tied 2-2, 7th inning, no outs, runner on first. Gutierrez bunts to advance Johjima.
I don’t like this one. WPA’s -.020, beyond which you’re advancing Kenji in the hope that what, he can score from second on a single? And behind him is Yuni the ground ball machine, which makes advancing on a sac less likely. And while the score’s tied, you’ve got two innings left for the A’s to score – I don’t get it.
Bad bunt.
Bunt two
M’s at home, 2-2, 10th inning, no outs, runner on second. Betancourt bunts to advance Gutierrez to third.
As it turns out, this wins the game. But it’s a good bunt even if it gives up the out to move the runner along. One run wins the game, and moving Gutierrez over makes that one run more likely. Now… the WPA on 10th-inning moves starts to get weird, because the sample sizes drop off so hugely, but this is probably a +.030 bunt. Really – it’s as good a move as two or three of those bad ones.
Moreover, after Betancourt you’re looking at Endy and Cedeno.
Good bunt. Reaaaally good bunt, and it turned out wildly better than that.
4/15 vs Angels, bunt one
M’s at home, 0-0, 4th inning, no outs, runner on second. Lopez bunts to advance Branyan to third.
I don’t know about this one. It’s a bad idea to play for one run so early. But the next three batters were Kenji, Betancourt, and Gutierrez. You’re probably not hoping for more than a single from any of those guys, and Branyan’s slow, but he could score from third. But Lopez isn’t a bad hitter, and it’s not a force out situation where you’re worried about seeing Branyan doubled off. On the other hand, it’s Jered Weaver.
The book says it’s a -.014 play.
Okay bunt.
Bunt two
Then behind 3-2, 6th inning, runners on first and third. Gutierrez bunts to move Betancourt to second.
The pitcher makes an error, Johnson scores, and Gutierrez gets to first. I uh… I totally love this play. Seriously. I will trade an out for a run every day of the week. Now I’m not wild about this because Ichiro’s on deck. But Ichiro’s a ground ball machine, and if you pull it off you’ve removed the double play, and if Johnson’s thrown out there’s a good chance you end up with Betancourt at 3rd and Gutierrez at 1st. I dig it.
Good bunt.
4/17 vs the Tigers
M’s at home, trailing 3-1, 5th inning, runners on first and second. Johnson bunts to move Branyan to third, Lopez to second.
Okay, remember when I said the sacrifice was a bad move early in the game except for pitchers? Rob Johnson hits like a pitcher. He’s terrible. Especially in that situation, where the M’s have three straight hits off Verlander and they’re about to turn over the order.
Good bunt.
4/25 vs Angels
M’s visiting, 0-0, 1st inning, no outs, runner on first. Chavez bunts to advance Ichiro! To second.
Bad. Ortega was nothing special, Ichiro can run on his own, and… the first inning on the road against a filler starter just doesn’t make sense. WPA says -.018 but that requires an average pitcher on the other side. As the M’s would prove by rocking Ortega, there was no reason to give him free outs.
Bad bunt.
4/28 vs White Sox
M’s visiting, 0-0, 1st inning, no outs, runner on first. Chavez bunts to advance Ichiro! To second.
No! Stop bunting early! Argh! (-.018)
Bad bunt.
The totals:
4 good bunts
4 okay bunts
3 bad bunts
That’s good. Really. A manager who does this well picking his spots helps his team.The frequency may be cause for concern, but he’s being smart about it. The only legitimate complaint is the early-game bunting, which is inexplicable. It’s not Don Baylor-in-Colorado crazy, but the weight of baseball history shows it doesn’t help teams win games. And if he’d stop that, it’d be great. And if some of those are just Chavez laying down unsuccessful tries for bunt singles, Wakamatsu looks even better.
I did a little Excel work summing this up and then working with the assumptions in each situation. With pretty conservative estimates I come up even, and it’s not hard at all to come up on the plus side. If you’re interested, there’s a ton of really interesting research on this stuff (James Click in particular has some great bunt articles on Baseball Prospectus and in the Baseball Between the Numbers book, and I’d also recommend the chapter in Tango’s The Book)(affiliate links) and I’d welcome additional thoughts and suggestions for follow-up.
I’m not a bunt guy, and I came around: Wakamatsu’s generally been really smart about picking his spots and getting the most for his out. I admit, so far this year I’ve done a lot more tearing my hair about over bunts that weren’t so bad than I have applauding bunts that on closer analysis look pretty good. When I line them all up like this, I find myself reassured.
(this article took ~3h to research and write up)
Game 29, Mariners at Royals
11. Washburn v Bannister. Stupid inconvenient time zones. Why can’t the Earth be flat? Or a torus, or something?
RF Ichiro
CF Gutierrez
2B Lopez
1B Branyan
3B Beltre
DH Griffey
LF Balentien
C Johnson
SS Cedeno
Vargas and Olson
We’ve now seen both Olson and Vargas work a few innings in the big leagues, and their respective charts are above.
The fastballs are pretty similar – 89 MPH average velocity, topped out at 91. Both of these guys have below average heaters. Olson’s breaking ball is slower with quite a bit more vertical bend, while Vargas’ is more of a side-to-side slider. They both have a low-80s change.
Vargas pounded the strike zone quite a bit more than Olson did, though that could easily just be a function of the line-ups they were facing. Remember, Vargas was facing the worst offense in baseball and Giambi and Cust had already been removed from the game. Not exactly a scary bunch of hitters.
The interesting thing, to me, though, was how Vargas didn’t vary the height of his pitches much at all. Look at that strike zone plot. 41 pitches, and he missed low four times, while never missing high. He was off the plate on either side 12 times, but the vertical range of pitches was basically the strike zone for Vargas. He would move in and out, but not up and down.
Olson, on the other hand, was more than willing to miss the strike zone entirely. He was burying that breaking ball down and away from LH hitters, and then was more than willing to go up and away or down and in on RH bats with the fastball. Unfortunately, it didn’t work very well – he threw 18 pitches outside the strike zone to right-handed hitters, and all 18 were stared at for balls.
The breaking ball down and away to LH hitters was a good pitch for him – he got six strikes on pitches out of the strike zone down there. But against righties, they just waited for him to come in with the fastball. There wasn’t any real deception there.
To me, this is a pretty easy choice. Vargas to the rotation, Olson stays in the pen as a long reliever or left-on-left guy.
Echoes of Columns Future
Many of you have gotten your wish, as manager Don Wakamatsu confirmed that Carlos Silva would not make his next turn in the rotation, and will pitch from the bullpen for the forseeable future. Silva’s been a divisive figure among Mariner fans since coming over after his 2007 campaign with the Twins that made him the #1 free agent pitcher on the market, signing a four year, $48m contract to solidify the rotation.
Unfortunately for him, a fan base that’s never forgiven Alex Rodriguez for taking the money and running in free agency expected so much of him it would have been impossible to meet expectations — and the backlash led to a situation where he could do no right, and went to the mound every start for a crowd that expected him to lose.
He never had a chance this season. Booing practically started after the last out of the previous game was recorded. But he did everything he could, everything anyone could have asked for. He dropped weight and adopted a new, rigorous workout schedule (which players like Ichiro are lauded for) and still they called him fat. He did everything to try to help heal a divided clubhouse by holding a party at his Minnesota home and reaching out to his teammates, and he was still mocked as fat. Silva was never given credit for the things he did well. People would rather dwell on his honest comments on the team’s problems with accountability last year than see how his sense of humor and generosity contributed to this year’s unity. And it carried into the view of his performances — even when there were encouraging signs of progress, he was met with defeatism and negativity. It’s hard to succeed under those circumstances.
But don’t question his dedication. He didn’t have to work so hard to get into better shape for this season — he’d have been paid whether he did or not. He did it because as much as many of you would like to forget it, he’s a competitor, a former rock of the Twins rotation. Remember how heavily his winless streak weighed on him, how he pitched through shoulder stiffness trying to grind out starts, and particularly think about how badly he wanted to stay in that April 25th start that ended up breaking his streak. Even the Silva so many have been so disappointed with still have his team a chance to win: the team had a winning record in his starts when he lost his rotation spot.
And while players like Ichiro are continually defended, every excuse made for their slow starts or poor performances, when Silva goes up against a fastball-hitting team he can expect mockery, not sympathy or support. If the team had been a little better about finding him good matchups, we might not even be having a conversation about whether his spot was in jeopardy.
As much as his detractors like to throw around terms like “sunk cost†it’s clear from the fan treatment of pitchers who’ve done just as much damage to their chances (cough, Corcoran) that his contract was as much an issue as his performance. It’s not hard to think that if he’d come to Seattle as a bargain, whether he’d have been a pleasant surprise, with fans looking forward to seeing him contribute in the future, instead of the current unpleasant situation, with over two years and $24 million left on the contract, saddled with unreachable expectations the previous front office put on him.
Hopefully, he can make the right adjustments in the bullpen, but it’s likely that the only way he’ll find success and Mariner fans will be able to move on is for him to be traded or released and get a new start with a new team, where hopefully he can find the support he needs and find the success that’s eluded him during his time in Seattle.
Game 28, Mariners at Royals
Silva vs Ponson, 5:10 pm.
The last stand of Carlos Silva. Even if we lose, we win.
New line-up tonight, as Wak changes things up just for the heck of it.
Ichiro, RF
Chavez, LF
Lopez, 2B (because the right-handed hitter with a .303 OBP needed to be moved up)
Branyah, 1B
Beltre, 3B
Griffey, DH
Johjima, C
Gutierrez, CF
Betancourt, SS
Ponson isn’t good, so at least we got all four of our LH bats in the line-up tonight. Hopefully our fatso is better than their fatso.
An Opportunity Arises
Usually, when teams get frustrated with one of their own underachievers, they don’t get a chance to trade that guy away and get anything of value back. It either turns into a dump-the-contract kind of situation where the team gives the player away, or they go in another direction and just let that guy sit on the bench while everyone regrets the situation.
Thanks to a move by the Minnesota Twins this afternoon, a window may have just opened for the Mariners.
The Twins, more than any other team in baseball, value contact hitting. They hate strikeouts – it’s an organizational philosophy that is preached at their kids from day one. They want aggressive, high contact guys who hit for average and are willing to sacrifice power to get that. They also care very little for statistical analysis, and give no heed to any of the newer defensive metrics out there. They evaluate defense by scouting reports and tools. They’re a small ball, speed and defense kind of team, and as long as Ron Gardenhire‘s the manager, they always will be.
There’s not a team in baseball more apt to value Yuniesky Betancourt than the Twins. He fits all of the things they like in a player – he’s fast, he’s got good defensive tools, he’s almost impossible to strike out, he hits the ball on the ground, and he’s a high average hitter. The things that he fails at – drawing walks, working counts, living up to his defensive reputation – are the things that the Twins value less than anyone else in baseball.
Betancourt and the Twins are a match made in heaven. He’s their kind of player. No other organization in the game will see as much value in Yuni as the Twins.
And as of today, the Twins could use a middle infielder.
They just demoted starting second baseman Alexi Casilla to Triple-A, as he’s gotten on Ron Gardenhire‘s last nerve. He made some fundamental mistakes over the weekend, dropping a throw on a relay from the outfield, and has always struggled to live up to Gardenhire’s expectations. The fact that he’s hitting .167 to start the year didn’t help.
To replace him on the roster, the Twins called up Matt Tolbert, who is more of a corner infielder than a middle guy. They’ll give Casilla’s playing time to Brendan Harris, but he profiles more as a utility player than anything else. A Punto-Harris middle infield tandem is not exactly the stuff that the Twins dream of.
Jack, get on the phone. Call Bill Smith and tell him that you’d like to talk about acquiring Casilla. Point out that your team is too right-handed, and you wouldn’t mind adding a switch-hitter to the roster. Do the whole change of scenery thing. When Smith asks what you’re willing to give up, make it sound like it kills you to part with your starting shortstop, but throw out the old “I know I have to give something to get something” line, and see if he’ll throw in Jose Mijares just to make it easier on you.
Alexi Casilla isn’t a great player – he’s basically a switch-hitting Yuni with a few more walks – but there’s no doubt that this team is better with Cedeno at SS and Casilla as the utility guy than they are with Betancourt at SS and Cedeno backing him up. You ship out the biggest defensive liability on the team, replace a hacking right-handed bat with a slightly more patient left-handed one, and shed some future contract obligations in the process. If Smith is willing to give you a decent second piece to “even the deal”, all the better.
Yuni to Minnesota. Make it happen, Jack. Gifts like this don’t come along all that often.
Dave On ESPN 710
I’ll be on the air with Brock and Salk at 11:25 am. 710 AM or listen live online.
Definitely some interesting topics to cover.
Well, That Complicates Things
Remember how I mentioned on Monday that the Texas series was more meaningful than usual games in May, because 17-10 with a 4+ game lead in the division made the “buy or sell” question seem a lot more cut and dried? At 15-12 with Silva taking the hill today and a beleaguered bullpen who just lost their best pitcher, welcome to confusion-land.
The M’s now stand just two games ahead of the Angels with 135 games to play. That’s not exactly a tough hole to climb out of, especially with reinforcements coming. John Lackey had his first rehab start for Salt Lake last night (against Tacoma, ironically), and could rejoin the Angels rotation next week. Ervin Santana isn’t far behind, and Vladimir Guerrero is running the bases and could be back on the team by the end of the month.
I don’t think the Angels are a great team, even with those three, but they’re a better team than the Mariners. The we-can-contend-this-year logic was based upon taking advantage of a broken Angels roster at the start of the year and building up a sizable lead that would take LAA the rest of the summer to overcome. Losing these last two games, with Felix and Bedard on the hill, put a pretty serious dent in that plan.
So now the M’s go forward with Silva-Washburn-Jakubauskas in the upcoming three games, and all three of those games feature right-handed starters for the opponents. Just like Vicente Padilla, Sidney Ponson does just fine against righties but gets tortured by lefties – unfortunately, the M’s just don’t have enough LH bats in the line-up, so Ponson faces his easiest possible matchup today. Same deal with Bannister tomorrow. Don’t be surprised if the M’s offense continues to “struggle”, but it’s not a slump, it’s a platoon match-up problem, and it won’t end until the team either addresses the ridiculous right-handedness of the position players or the team faces a bunch of left-handed pitchers.
They can only control the former, of course. If the Mariners view themselves as legitimate contenders for the AL West this year, Zduriencik and company are going to have to be willing to make some changes to the roster. I know I sound like a broken record, but the team can’t continually run out five or six right-handed bats – who all have exactly the same weaknesses – against other teams’ right-handed starters. It’s just offensive suicide.
Beltre will hit eventually, and there’s nothing the organization can really do about it if he doesn’t anyway. Gutierrez has been one of the shining beacons of hope in the first month of the season. But the Betancourt-Lopez-Johjima/Johnson grouping are both a huge problem and one that is conceivably addressable.
Yuni needs a day off or five. Here’s his second at-bat against Padilla yesterday:
I don’t care that Ronny Cedeno isn’t the long term answer at shortstop – that’s the kind of approach that has to earn Yuni a day on the bench and a lecture about being an idiot at the plate. He’s the easiest out in baseball. If you can’t fix him, you at least don’t have to play him every day.
Unfortunately, finding a left-handed hitting shortstop is hard. Finding one that would be available in trade right now is almost impossible. The team is basically stuck with a right-handed bat, be it Yuni or Cedeno, at the SS spot.
That leaves second base and catcher. It’s a lot easier to find a left-handed hitting second baseman, and there are some that should be available. Adam Kennedy is hanging out in Triple-A, hitting .295/.382/.462 while waiting for about 45 people to get injured so he can join the Rays. The Braves could probably be talked out of Kelly Johnson, given the right offer. The D’Backs season is basically over, so Felipe Lopez will be available in the not-too-distant future. There are options here.
The team should not be married to Jose Lopez. He’s not that good. He hits lefties decently enough, but his approach at the plate is still miserable and his power is average at best. He’s a +1 to +2 win player whose potential is mostly a myth, and he’s a terrible fit for this roster. Swapping out Lopez in order to get a LH bat in the line-up at second base should absolutely be on the table.
But, there are reasons why this might not be the best time to trade Lopez. The timing of it is tough to pull off, no doubt. It wouldn’t be the easiest thing to do, and the safer route is to let him keep playing and hope he starts hitting some line drives pretty soon.
That leaves the catcher spot. Kenji’s not going anywhere with his contract, but Rob Johnson… he just isn’t a major league player. I know the team loves his personality and the way he interacts with the pitching staff, but at some point, they have to view this rationally, not emotionally. The staff isn’t performing any better with him behind the plate than they are with Kenji. He’s not good at blocking balls in the dirt or throwing out runners.
And he’s one of the worst hitting position players in major league baseball. He has no power, a lousy approach at the plate, and oh yea, he’s right-handed. He’s better than his .216/.241/.314 line so far, but not that much better. He’s an offensive black hole on a team that can’t afford any more of those.
I don’t want to drag out the Jeff Clement argument any more than we have to. I don’t think Clement’s a major league catcher long term either. Pragmatically, we probably need to view him more as a 1B/DH prospect or trade bait than any kind of catcher-of-the-future. That said, he’s somewhat capable of squatting behind the plate and receiving pitches while also stepping to the plate in the left-handed batters box and working some counts. He’s struggled pretty badly in Tacoma since he became a new father (he’s not sleeping much at home, so don’t be surprised that he’s playing better on road trips), but his slumps still dwarf the offensive production of Rob Johnson.
If the team isn’t willing to make a move at second base yet, or thinks they need to give Lopez some more time to get out of his funk, then they are forced to consider swapping out Clement and Johnson, regardless of how much they like Johnson’s work with pitchers and think Clement had a bad spring. If the team wants to try to win baseball games this year, they can’t let sentiment get in the way of logic too often – the margin for error isn’t big enough.
The first 25 games, the team was a nice story. If they want to continue to be a nice story for the rest of the summer, changes are needed. Otherwise, we’re still playing for 2010, and we might as well start letting the world know that Bedard, Washburn, and Beltre will be available in the summer.
The M’s are getting pretty close to decision time. If they’re going to try to sneak out a division title, then they have to do some things to make it more likely. If they’re going to stick with the roster they have, then we’re probably sellers in July.
Roster Stuff
Garrett Olson was scratched from his scheduled start tonight and will join the team in Kansas City tomorrow. Kelley looks DL bound, but even if he’s okay, Stark isn’t long for the major league roster, so there’s a spot in the pen opening up.
The thing to watch is how this will affect the Silva/Vargas decision after tomorrow’s game, though. With Kelley being swapped out for Olson, Wak might be more inclined to shift Silva to the pen to fill a RH reliever role and let Vargas take his spot in the rotation. Otherwise, you’re shifting a lot of people around to try to make Olson fit into Kelley’s roster spot, and since both he and Vargas are seen as LH multi-inning guys, having both in the same pen is a bit redundant.
In other words, don’t be surprised if Silva ends up in the bullpen even if he isn’t a total disaster tomorrow.
Game 27, Rangers at Mariners
Matinee! Padilla vs Erik “The Interview” Bedard! 1:40pm! And my afternoon schedule has a bunch of meetings! Yay!
Dave adds: You know how I keep harping on the roster being too right-handed and how it’s costing us wins?
Padilla, career vs RHB: .241/.300/.370
Padilla, career vs LHB: .299/.381/.484
The Mariners are starting seven right-handed bats and two left-handed bats today.
Yea.