Proven Chemistry Guru Guillen Harming Chemistry
I like Jose Guillen, and this isn’t in any way an attack on him, as much as it is a hilarious conclusion to the ridiculous claims that the M’s simply fell apart without his leadership.
Guillen demands trade, not speaking to manager.
But the main reason he is in “living hell in Kansas City” is a foul relationship with manager Trey Hillman.
“Guillen and Hillman are not on speaking terms, they don’t talk,” said the source. “Guillen is definitely not happy, he’s not comfortable and he would do anything he can in economic terms to ease his way out of Kansas City.”
The next time sportswriters correctly predict a player’s effect on a particular team’s clubhouse chemistry, it will be the first time. Until then, ignore them.
MLB Teams Are Learning
As we head up to the trade deadline, we’re seeing a shift from what has taken place in years past. Yesterday, the Braves put all-star first baseman Mark Teixeira on the block, and the collective response from MLB was to yawn. Manny Ramirez was made available over the weekend, and no one cared. The M’s are trying to create a bidding war for Jarrod Washburn, but they can’t find anyone besides the Yankees who have much interest.
This isn’t a coincidence. Multiple GMs are being quoted publicly as saying they’ve never seen prospects being valued this highly before, and that teams simply aren’t willing to give up the kind of young talent they used to in order to acquire a veteran at the deadline. Why?
MLB GMs are getting smarter, and they’re learning from recent history. Look back at the big trades made in the last year, both in season and off season.
Arizona mortgages the farm for Dan Haren, he pitches well, their team regresses anyway.
New York acquires Johan Santana, he pitches well, their team struggles regardless
Mariners acquire Erik Bedard, season goes in the toilet
Tigers acquire Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, team underachieves
Braves acquire Mark Teixeira, are pretty much the same with him as before
Red Sox acquire Eric Gagne, he stinks
In all those deals, the team giving up significant prospects has not seen the results they were hoping for on a team wide basis. It’s not always the new acquisition’s fault (Haren’s been awesome), but one player on a 25 man roster just doesn’t make as much of a difference as most people think.
It’s taken them awhile, but the clubs themselves are finally figuring out how valuable young players are, and not buying into the “go for broke” hype anymore. Even the recent deals for C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden were a big step back in terms of prospects received from what similar players were commanding several years ago, and more in line with what teams should be giving up for a deadline acquisition.
Slowly but surely, teams are realizing the truth – prospects aren’t some willy nilly lottery ticket that should be cashed in at the first chance to acquire a player you’ve actually heard of. Good teams build from within, and while there are trades that make sense for both teams, the crazy “my kingdom for a horse” type deals have seen their last days.
Small stat of the day: the defensive improvement
Since the M’s made their outfield alignment change to try and regularly get two good gloves out there at the same time, and began to regularly replace Sexson at first (even with Cairo and Vidro) I’ve been watching their defensive stats drift upwards with interest. And now Riggleman’s even used defensive subs for Ibanez (!) late in games, which is great.
While earlier in the year they were in the basement, one of the worst teams in baseball, before tonight’s game they were 21st in defensive efficiency which is just balls put into play (except HRs) turned into outs.
That’s a huge, huge swing. It means the Mariners have been playing legitimately good defense overall for a while now, and we’ve seen that pay off in a lot of ways beyond just outs: for instance, it’s made some Ryan Franklin-worthy starts by Jarrod Washburn look great, and that may help the team move his salary.
This has been a large and as far as I’ve seen generally unacknowledged part of the team’s improved record lately. That putting two legitimately good defenders in the outfield and taking playing time away from a terrible defender (and at a traditionally defensively neglected position) has helped swing things to the M’s side is another demonstration of the importance of defense.
Game 105, Mariners at Rangers
Felix vs Feldman, 5:05.
Happy Felix Day!
If Felix can shut down the Rangers tonight, it will be his most impressive performance since last year’s one hitter in Fenway. This Texas line-up is just unbelievably scary, especially at home. Their team OPS while playing in Texas is .880. Their worst hitters at home hit like our best hitters on the road. And, even better, their offense is heavily left-handed, with serious home run power from that side. Felix’s biggest problem is still getting left-handed hitters out.
It’s 100 degrees in Texas tonight, by the way. So he’s facing a monster offense full of the type of hitters that he does worst against in an environment where the ball will be flying off the bat.
The degree of difficulty for this start is off the scales. In Felix We Trust, but tonight, I have slightly tempered expectations.
Jarrod Washburn’s success is sustainable and he should command a high price
It’s the splitter! What better way to increase a pitcher’s value than spread the word that they’ve learned a new pitch? What’s more –there’s a kernel of truth in it. From this July 2nd story:
Washburn is throwing a split-fingered fastball again. He does it about 6 to 8 times per game, when he really needs it. Tonight, he used it to strike out Rod Barajas on a 2-2 pitch with the bases loaded and two out in the fifth inning.Called it the best splitter he’s ever thrown. Came in at about 86 mph.
All we need to do is clean that up a little. Sayyyyy:
JJ had a lot of spare time while he was injured, and you know how Jarrod’s constantly looking to improve his game. Well, when Washburn was being shelled in May, he decided to take the splitter seriously and that’s why we’ve seen him get such great results even when batters are still making contact. He’s mixing it in well with his other breaking stuff and because he’s less familiar with it, he’s only using it when he’s ahead in the count. And that works well, because when it drops down out of the zone hitters may still swing and miss trying to protect.
Whoever picks him up gets this new, splitter-throwing Washburn, who is really an entirely different pitcher than the one we saw earlier in the season.
There’s our story. Doesn’t that sound like a pitcher contending teams should trade for? Striving for improvement, learning from teammates, using his tools effectively… that’s worth a blue chip prospect or two.
Here’s the great part about this: there’s no easy refutation of this. You’d have to back through a ton of film to try and distinguish the break on different pitches to make any kind of conclusions about how often he’s throwing it if he’s throwing it at all and how effective it’s been. and really, who’s going to put that kind of effort into this? Heck, it worked for Silva — how much of that $48m came from people biting on the “he’s learned a splitter” story? And then later on, everyone can point to the other reports as the source.
So go forth everyone — spread the news anywhere you can about Jarrod’s success being due to the splitter he learned from Putz. Post on forums, send emails to NY writers. Call into KJR. Do what you have to do. We’ve seen this tactic work before, and it’s up to us to replicate its success.
Game 104, Mariners at Blue Jays
Washburn v Marcum… supposedly. As I write this.
There may have been no better time for Washburn’s little streak of good results — the team’s finally shopping people, and he’s been turning in good performances for long enough that his ill start to the season and just horrible May seem forgotten. If it helps the team move him, well, good work all around.
Congratulations, Dave
Mr. Niehaus,
I could write thousands of words about how much you deserve this day, but it would still fall short of expressing how glad I am that you’re going into the Baseball Hall of Fame today. You are the reason I’m a baseball fan, and I can’t imagine growing up with anyone else welcoming me to a beautiful day out for baseball.
Enjoy Cooperstown. Enjoy the entire experience.
Congratulations, Dave. You’ve earned it.
Washburn to Yanks
Jarrod Washburn has been was almost traded to the Yankees and still will be – this deal was contingent upon the Yankees completing the Nady/Marte deal to get themselves an outfielder, which they did last night.
No official word on who will be coming to Seattle in exchange for Washburn, but it sounds like it’s an outfielder. If the M’s got either Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner, do back flips.
Actually, Washburn’s gone – do back flips anyway.
The Most Obvious Trade Ever
So, the Brewers have a scout following the Mariners, presumably looking for relief help that won’t cost an arm and a leg. If the rumored interest in Arthur Rhodes is real, and the Brewers maintain their stance that they want to add a bullpen arm without giving up any highly valued young talent, then there’s one deal between the two teams that couldn’t make any more sense.
Arthur Rhodes for Brad Nelson, straight up.
I covered Nelson last month, but here’s the long and short of it – he’s a 25 year old left-handed hitting first baseman with a patient approach at the plate and a bit of power. He’s stuck behind Prince Fielder, which means he has no future in Milwaukee, and his frame rules out his future anywhere besides 1B/DH.
His upside is as a .270/.350/.450 first baseman, so he’s never going to be a star, but he’d instantly become the best first baseman in the organization. The M’s have a line-up spot with his name on it, and with a solid finish to the year, they could have a cheap answer at first base for 2009.
Rhodes for Nelson. Lee, Doug, make it happen. It makes so much sense.
Game 103, Mariners at Blue Jays
Dickey vs Purcey, 10:05 am.
Ichiro RF
Bloomquist CF
Ibanez LF
Beltre 3B
Lopez 2B
Vidro DH
Cairo 1B
Burke C
Betancourt SS
In a season where the entire point is now to build for the future, the Mariners are starting players who won’t be with the organization next year in CF, LF, DH, 1B, and likely C.
In better news, the Dodgers acquired Casey Blake from the Indians today, so if the Mets are going to make a deal for a hitter, Ibanez is the last guy left. Let’s hope for a classic Minaya freakout overpay.