Winter Meetings, Day Three
48 hours into the winter meetings and the news continues to come out of cities besides Seattle. As mentioned below, the Tigers just launched themselves right back into the discussion in terms of AL Contenders with their trade yesterday. While the Mariners won’t think this way (after all, jobs are on the line), it’s really quite clear that the 2008 Mariners just have no chance of being in the top tier of American League clubs.
The Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, and Tigers have essentially locked themselves into fighting over position as the four best teams in baseball. The dropoff between those clubs and the fifth best team in the game is pretty staggering. They have, for all intents and purposes, taken any chance the AL West had of winning the wild card and thrown it in a wood chipper. The only way for the Mariners to make the playoffs next year is to win the division, and even if they can do that, they’re looking at having to beat two beheamoths just to even get to the World Series.
In an ideal world, where the franchise wasn’t being run on a win-or-lose-your-job mandate, and the front office could make decisions based on what is best for the franchise, the M’s would just fold up their 2008 tents and become sellers. They are three or four all-star type players away from competing with the big boys in the A.L., and they simply don’t have the resources to make the type of upgrades necessary to get themselves in a legitimate position to win postseason games.
But, that isn’t the reality of the situation. The front office doesn’t have the ability to make that kind of decision – the minute they start selling, they’re writing their own pink slips. This franchise is in win now mode – unfortunately, so are five other American League teams, and they’re all far better at it than the M’s.
So, today, we’ll see talk shift to Erik Bedard, as the M’s try to make a splash and impress some people. After yesterday’s trade, I’m now just hoping that we get through the rest of this winter without destroying the future, because the idea of winning it all in ’08 seems about as likely as Steve Kelley writing an entire paragraph.
The Most Fun Trade Ever, Part Two
Okay, so this qualifies as something better than yesterday.
The Tigers are sending their entire farm system, along with the draft rights to every player they pick for the next 1,000 years, a partridge, and a pear tree to the Florida Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.
It’s the blockbuster to end all blockbusters. The Tigers instantly thrust themselves right back into the top tier of the American League superpowers, while the Marlins acquire a ridiculous haul of talent not seen since the Herschel Walker trade.
This deal makes the Tigers better in a time where their window to win is not huge. Detroit has a significant core of their roster who won’t be helping them win for much longer or are about to head into decline, so they’re in a position where trading future help for current help makes a lot of sense. Miguel Cabrera, while not much defensively, is a hall of fame hitter heading into the prime of his career. You can’t acquire a player that good and not get better.
Did they overpay? Yea, probably. My love affair with Andrew Miller is long and well documented, and while I think Cameron Maybin is a little overhyped, he’s just terrific instead of stupendously awesome. The other four prospects account for, basically, every last bit of talent in the Tigers system besides Rick Porcello (who they aren’t allowed to trade yet). It’s a massive haul for the Marlins, and gives them some chances to realign their roster to help alleviate some of their defensive deficiencies.
From the Mariners perspective, Cabrera’s not an Angel, so we should all be thrilled about that.
Winter Meetings, Day Two
A fairly boring day one of the meetings. Let’s hope today provides a little more excitement. Here’s what we know after 24 hours.
1. With the M’s out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes, they’re now pursuing Erik Bedard – he’s not quite as good as Johan, but he’s still a terrific pitcher, plus he’s under club control through 2009. However, just as with Santana, the price is exhorbitant, and I’m still of the opinion that the Mariners aren’t one pitcher away from being a legit contender.
2. The Edwin Jackson rumors didn’t last long, as it appears the M’s were only offering scraps to Tampa, who are too smart to give up a quality young arm for pieces of questionable value like Ben Broussard or Rob Johnson. If the M’s want to get a guy like Jackson, they’re going to have to part with a talented player in return – Wladimir Balentien actually makes a lot of sense for both clubs, especially now that the Rays have traded Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes in the last week.
3. Apparently, Hiroki Kuroda’s first name isn’t Hideki. Whoops. M’s still seem like the frontrunners for his services.
4. Also, Jose Guillen signed with the Royals for 3 years and $36 million. Because the M’s declined to offer arbitration, they don’t get any draft pick compensation. Bavasi gave the typical crap answer about the team not wanting the exposure of him potentially accepting arbitration and wrecking their budget with a $12-$15 million award down the line. However, that’s a load of B.S.
The actual exposure the team had was 1/6th of whatever they projected his potential arbitration award to be, thanks to a clause in the CBA that allows teams to release players prior to March 15th and only be liable for 16% of the salary they were given in arbitration. So, if the M’s thought Guillen would accept abritration and they really didn’t want him back, they could simply release him by paying him something around $2 million to just go away. That’s their real exposure.
And really, what were the odds of Guillen accepting arbitration? 10%? 20%? No way it was higher than that. A 20% risk of a $2 million exposure is about $400,000 in risk. The team punted a supplemental first round pick because $400,000 scared them away. What a bunch of pansies.
Rumblings from the Meetings
Quick reactions to some of the rumors going around right now:
1. M’s interested in Edwin Jackson? Woohoo. We’ve been pushing for the M’s to pick up one of Tampa’s excess starters for months. Jackson’s a good arm and would fit in well as a buy low, high upside candidate. He’s a lot better than the mainstream opinion would have you believe.
2. M’s interested in dealing Richie Sexson? One year too late, but again, woohoo. This is the most obvious move of the winter – dump Sexson for whatever you can get, freeing up a position to get Ibanez out of the outfield, and sign a legitimate defensive LF (Geoff Jenkins!) to improve the defense.
3. M’s out of Johan Santana sweepstakes – not a big surprise, and something I’m totally fine with.
4. M’s have offered Hideki Kuroda either a 3 year, $30 million deal or a 4 year, $44 million deal, depending on who you believe. I’m still holding to the stance that we don’t have enough information to make any real informed opinions on either side, but man, $44 million for a guy with no outpitch?
So far, the rumors are at least mostly encouraging. But let’s see them actually do something productive before we get too excited.
Winter Meetings, Day One
So, the winter meetings kick off today. Generally, this three day period is the busiest of baseball’s offseason, and it would be odd if we didn’t see at least a couple of trades and some big free agent signings. With all 30 teams hanging out in one hotel in Nashville, stuff will get done, and the rumors will be flying fast and furious.
The M’s have made no secret out of the fact that their offseason plan is basically to just add two starting pitchers, with one of those targets being Hideki Kuroda. So, expect them to kick the tires on a few other options while they wait for his decision, and talk to a bunch of teams about available starting pitchers in trade. I’m sure there will also be some talks about moving Richie Sexson (seriously, Sexson to SF for Durham makes so much sense – just call Sabean and get it done), and the team will talk to some veteran relievers. The M’s won’t be the busiest team at the meetings, but they’ll be involved in a lot of different things.
One of those things probably won’t be Johan Santana, however – reports today have him telling the Twins that he’s only waiving his no-trade clause to go to Boston or New York. That’s probably for the best, honestly – trying to compete with those two teams in terms of giving up talent for Johan is a bad idea.
Anyway, we’ll keep you up to date with news and rumors of substance the next few days, and we’ll provide analysis of any moves the M’s make as quickly as we can.
The one thing we’re going to ask, however, is please don’t sit there and constantly refresh the front page waiting for news to break – our server can’t handle it, and it’s not going to do you any good if you just knock us offline.
Johan, Finally
So, I’ve been ignoring this topic for the last couple of weeks, but now that Geoff Baker has gone and written an article about it (by the way, welcome back Geoff), I guess we’ll address the Johan Santana situation.
It isn’t often that the best pitcher in baseball becomes available for trade. Johan is, without a doubt, in the middle of a Hall of Fame type career. Whether he has the durability to one day end up in Cooperstown is another story, but his peak is certainly induction worthy. He’s a truly great player. He isn’t Barry Zito – he actually is a good pitcher, worthy of a ridiculous amount of money and the acclaim being thrown his way.
So, if you’re the Mariners, you need starting pitching, and the best of the best is available – being interested is pretty obvious, yes?
Yes and no.
The Mariners absolutely should be interested in Johan Santana, and I’m glad Bavasi’s making calls and figuring out what it would take to get involved in the sweepstakes. It’d be irresponsible for the Mariners to not be at least somewhat involved in conversations about Johan Santana.
But should they be willing to compete with Boston, New York, and potentially others in a bidding war? I say no.
Johan Santana, for as great as he is, has to be projected as something like a 5 to 7 win addition to his new team (not accounting for the wins surrendered by giving up major league talent to acquire him). He’s an incredible pitcher, but the irrational exuberance surrounding the “Get Johan Santana, pair him with Felix Hernandez, win World Series!” type of analysis is just not realistic.
Look at the 2006 Twins – they had peak Johan, Francisco Liriano putting up a performance that we can’t even expect Felix to match, quality back-end starters in Brad Radke and Boof Bonser, the best bullpen in baseball, a legitimate MVP candidate in Joe Mauer, a non-legitimate MVP candidate who won anyway in Justin Morneau, solid role players in Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Bartlett, and useful years out of spare parts like Nick Punto, Luis Castillo, and Mike Redmond.
That team had a +120 run differential, won 96 games (squeeking out a division title by one game), and got swept out of the playoffs in the first round. And that roster ran circles around what the 2008 Mariners with Johan Santana would look like.
Johan Santana is a great player. He is not a panacea for all the ills that the Mariners are suffering from. This team is just not one pitcher away from greatness, so their situation is inherently different from that of New York, Boston, the Angels, or other teams that legitimately could claim that Santana is their missing piece.
The cost to the Mariners future – certainly the package would require Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow, and likely two additional players of significant value – is simply too high, considering their current situation. The cost benefit analysis just doesn’t work for the Mariners right now.
It’d be great if it did. Perhaps if the Mariners hadn’t screwed the pooch last winter, building an inflexible roster with three DHs, they’d be in a situation where giving up some future value to make a run at winning it all would make some sense. But for this organization, for this team, it just doesn’t. Not right now.
The Most Fun Trade Ever
Tampa Bay and Minnesota have finalized a trade that is, if nothing else, endlessly fascinating. Details are as follows:
Minnesota sends RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, and RHP Eduardo Morlan
Tampa sends OF Delmon Young, 2B/3B Brendan Harris, and OF Jason Pridie
Delmon Young is, among other things, 22 years old, supremely talented, and was the #1 pick in the draft just four years ago. He’s got all-star talent, and is at a stage of his career where players of his caliber aren’t often dealt. For Minnesota to be able to acquire a guy like Young, at age 22, is pretty remarkable. And Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie could both help them win ball games as useful role players next year. The Twins picked up three players who can all help them win in 2008, make nothing, and should be in Minnesota for several years to come. That’s not easy to do, and they should be quite happy with their haul.
But just because this trade helps Minnesota doesn’t mean Tampa Bay got ripped off. I like this trade from the Rays perspective as well.
While Matt Garza is the sexy name, Jason Bartlett is exactly what this team needed – a legitimate major league defensive SS who can hit a little bit. We’ve talked before about how bad Tampa’s defense was, but swapping out Harris for Bartlett is going to be one of the largest upgrades any team makes this winter at any position. The difference between those two with the gloves is staggering. With Bartlett at short, Akinori Iwamura shifting over to second base, and rookie Evan Longoria stepping in at third, the Rays are actually going to have an infield defense capable of getting to balls in the hole and turning double plays.
The effect this trade will have on the Tampa pitching staff goes far beyond adding Matt Garza and his mid-90s fastball to the rotation, though that certainly won’t hurt. I’m not as big a Garza fan as some, but he has a live arm and stuff that can miss bats, so he’s worth taking a risk on. Teamed with Scott Kazmir and James Shields, Tampa now has three young arms who can get hitters out by themselves, and with the addition of Bartlett, they now also have the support of the defenders behind them.
Eduardo Morlan gives their bullpen another strikeout arm, and teamed with the rumored signing of Troy Percival, the Tampa bullpen should be deep with power arms next year. With Al Reyes and Dan Wheeler already around, plus a plethora of young kids fighting for jobs in the ‘pen, Tampa’s relief core has a chance to be outright good next year – a far cry from the total debacle it was in 2007.
Yes, they gave up Delmon Young, and usually the team that gives up the best player in any deal loses, but not in this case. Minnesota got better, but so did Tampa Bay.
And for once, it’s great to have a deal that was made strictly on talent evaluations. This is a baseball trade, and a fun one at that.
Raul Ibanez compared to the Weighted Companion Cube
I realized today I had this draft sitting around, and since there’s nothing else afoot…
| Ibanez | Weighted Companion Cube | |
| Immobile | Y | Y |
| Compensated for efforts | Millions of dollars | Piece of cake* |
| Under the right circumstances, invaluable to victory | Y | Y |
| Irrationally beloved | Y | Y |
| Clubhouse inspiration | Y | Y |
| Joins you from | Kansas City Royals | Vital Apparatus Vent |
| Loyal | N | Y |
| Available as plush toy | Presumably | Soon |
| Baked as a cake | No as far as we know, no | True |
| Good interview subject | Y | N |
| Presence | Y | Y |
|
Veteran presence |
Y | N |
| Doesn’t want to be a burden | N | Presumably yes |
| Brings you good luck | ? | Y |
| Career ends when euthanized in Aperture Science Emergency Intelligence Incinerator | N | Y |
* cake is rumored to be both delicious and moist, however, so there’s that.
Q&A Thread
We realize that the posting has been a little light here the last few weeks. Derek, Jason, and I have all been pretty busy with the non-baseball part of our lives, and it’s not like the Mariners have been making huge news either. I have a few posts that are in various stages of being finished, but since I don’t have the time to wrap any of them up today, I figured I’d throw up a question and answer thread, where you guys can fire off questions in the comments and we’ll do our best to answer them if we can.
Stay away from the usual topics that aren’t allowed, but other than that, this is probably the thread for you if you’ve had an off topic question that you’ve been wanting to ask. Fire away.
Angels Sign Torii Hunter
I called Torii Hunter a free agent landmine, and so it’s with some joy that I announce that the Angels have signed him to a 5 year, $90 million contract. As is the deal with most free agent contracts, this is just way too much money for a guy who isn’t as good as his reputation. The Angels will now shift Gary Matthews Jr to a corner OF spot, and Vlad/Garret Anderson will rotate between the other corner OF spots and DH.
This will improve the Angels outfield defense dramatically, but Hunter’s not the impact bat that the Angels have been shopping for. If they land Miguel Cabrera, that’s something else, but this is simply acquiring another useful but not great player at a contract that limits their ability to obtain real star quality talent down the road.
Or, put it another way – they Angels just gave Torii Hunter the same contract that the Mariners gave Ichiro five months ago. Advantage, Mariners.
Also, Happy Thanksgiving everyone.