Sean Green
When evaluating the team’s strengths and weaknesses, there is a popular sentiment gaining traction (especially among local beat writers and columists) that the Mariners should begin exploring a trade for a right-handed setup man to take some of the load off of J.J. Putz, who made yet another multi-inning save on Saturday night. Here’s a snippet from the linked Art Thiel piece:
So in the two weeks left until the trade deadline, it seems the Mariners’ most urgent need is less a starting pitcher and more a veteran setup reliever who might also spell Putz.
And here’s a quick take from Geoff Baker’s latest blog entry:
J.J. Putz continues to carry the bullpen, but he cannot do it alone for the entire season. The need for a more dominant eighth-inning set-up man still appears to be there.
Both Thiel and Baker are smart guys, and while we don’t agree with everything they write, they follow the team closely and generally form their opinions around some evidence and logic. Both guys have decided that the M’s simply don’t have a reliever in the bullpen capable of skills that would deem him worthy of 8th inning, high leverage situations. Baker’s outlined his reasons for keeping George Sherrill in the left-handed specialist role, and while I disagree with his conclusion and would like to see Sherrill and his 1.26 ERA given a chance to pitch the 8th inning on his own (much as Arthur Rhodes used to do), that’s not what this post is about.
No, this post is about the criminally underrated Sean Green. In all the clamoring over the M’s need for a lights out right-handed setup man, the failures of Chris Reitsma and Brandon Morrow are often pointed to, while Green is a simple after thought. Indeed, it seems that both the Mariners, and those in favor of acquiring another right-handed setup guy, are focusing significantly more on velocity than production. Brandon Morrow was given the 8th inning because he throws hard, and now that he’s proven that he’s not yet a major league pitcher, the Mariners apparently need to replace him with another guy who also throws extremely hard.
Meanwhile, while radar gun lighter uppers like Brad Lidge, Kyle Farnsworth, Derrick Turnbow, and Fernando Cabrera mix impressive fastballs with inconsistent results, Sean Green just keeps getting people out when it matters. Since adjusting his delivery to drop down and get more tilt on his slider, Green has added a strikeout pitch to his already lethal sinker, and the results have been nothing sort of tremendous. However, because his fastball sits at 93 with movement instead of 98 and straight, apparently, he’s not worthy of the 8th inning role.
Or, as Thiel put it this morning, the ‘pen is full of guys who haven’t yet proven that they can get critical outs, because they’re young and untested. But isn’t giving opportunities to those players within the organization who have earned them part of building a championship team? I know Sean Green doesn’t have the velocity readings that some people covet, but don’t even the staunchest velocity lovers have to admit that it takes a back seat to performance at some point?
And, really, there’s no arguing with the performance of the 2007 Sean Green. When the team has called upon him to put out a fire, he’s done so with amazing consistency. Once again, let’s take a look at the incredible fangraphs play log for Green, sorting each of the at-bats against him by Leverage Index (LI on the chart), which is essentially just a number that quantifies how important the game scenario is. For those who love clutch performers, Leverage Index is your dream stat. Anyway, let’s look at how Green has done in the high leverage situations he’s been handed this year.
July 2nd, at KC, bottom of the 9th, tied at 2, 1 out, runners at 1st and 3rd
Eric O’Flaherty had just given up a double and a single, putting the winning run 90 feet away, and bringing Emil Brown to the plate. A routine flyball gives the Royals the win. Sean Green comes in and blows Emil Brown away, getting the strikeout for the 2nd out, and eliminating the chance for a sacrifice fly ending the game.
June 8th, at San Diego, top of the 9th, tied at 5
Green relieved Brandon Morrow to start the 9th inning of a tie game on the road, meaning a run equals a loss. After an error by Adrian Beltre put the winning run on base with nobody out, Green got out of the inning without the run scoring. He then was called on to also pitch the 10th, and after getting the first out, he gave up back to back singles to put the winning run in scoring position with only one out. He then struck out Rob Bowen and got a weak grounder from Russ Branyan to complete two scoreless innings, and the M’s would then win in 11 innings after a Raul Ibanez home run gave them the lead immediately thereafter.
June 9th, at San Diego, bottom of the 7th, trailing 5-4
The day after throwing two high leverage shutout innings, the M’s went back to the Sean Green well, asking him to keep their deficit at just one run. After getting an easy 1-2-3 seventh inning, the Mariners tied the game up in the top of the 8th, and Mike Hargrove sent Green back out for his 4th high leverage inning in 24 hours. He gave up a leadoff single, then got a groundball fielders choice that kept the runner at first base and struckout Russ Branyan before giving up another single that put the winning run on 3rd base with two out. Khalil Greene stepped to the plate. Khalil Greene struck out, and Green wrapped up another successful appearance. The M’s then took the lead in the top of the 9th and won when J.J. Putz shut it down.
July 12th, vs Tigers, top of the 7th, up 3-2, 1 out, runners at 1st and 2nd
Felix’s last start ended when the Tigers got two hits off of him in the 7th inning, putting the tying run in scoring position with Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen due up. Sean Green got the call. He struck out Ordonez and got Guillen to weakly tap to first base. Inning over, rally quashed.
June 30th, vs Blue Jays, top of the 7th, up 3-1, 1 out, runners at 1st and 2nd
The Blue Jays chased Miguel Batista with a single and a walk to bring the go-ahead run to the plate. Green comes out of the pen and immediately induces an inning-ending double play. Inning over, rally quashed.
Those are the five highest leverage situations Green has been called into this year. He’s done yeoman’s work in all five, providing a huge boost to the team’s chances of winning each time, either through a clutch strikeout or a timely double play.
No, he hasn’t been perfect. He gave up a single to Michael Barrett to drive in the tying run in his second inning of work on June 12th against the Cubs, but then again, I’m pretty sure perfection isn’t the baseline by which we judge the quality of a setup man. If it was, we certainly wouldn’t be interested in failed closers from non-contenders, now would we?
By any measure you want to use, traditional or not, Sean Green has been tremendous this season. His ERA is 2.86, while his FIP is 3.60. Righties are only hitting .239/.307/.337 against him. The last 28 days, the league as a whole is hitting .214/.333/.286. He hasn’t given up a home run since his second appearance of the year. He’s inherited 21 baserunners – 3 have scored. He’s induced 6 double plays, most of any Mariner reliever, while only pitching 34 innings, and his double play rate is by far the highest on the team.
I don’t get it. Why are we in such a rush to replace Sean Green with a variety of pitchers who aren’t as good as Sean Green? Because he doesn’t throw hard enough?
I’d have thought the strikeout of Magglio Ordonez on Friday night would have opened some eyes. Sean Green has been establishing himself as a qualified high leverage right-handed setup man for the last month, even while the Mariners continue to try to force inferior pitchers like Brandon Morrow and Chris Reitsma into that role.
J.J. Putz has been tremendous this season, but Art, he’s had help – Sean Green and George Sherrill have also been big components in the Mariners bullpen cog, and they deserve better than the little respect they’re getting right now.
You want to trade for Brad Lidge, Octavio Dotel, or Eric Gagne, and surrender a quality young player or two in the process? I’ll stick with my man Sean Green, thanks, who will keep getting his groundballs and strikeouts while bailing the team out of jams and being an underappreciated reason this team is winning ballgames.
Weekend Roundup
The Mariners have to be at least somewhat pleased that they were able to split the series with a Tigers team that, let’s face it, is just better than the Mariners. Winning two games against that offense and a rotation of Miller-Bonderman-Rogers-Verlander is a tall order, and the M’s were able to keep themselves from taking a step backward against a good team. For most teams, the path the playoffs is playing .500 ball against contenders and beating the tar out of the pretenders, so there’s nothing wrong with splitting a series with a team that has a claim as the best in baseball.
With that positive disclaimer out of the way – the M’s got outplayed in every possible way this weekend and should count themselves very fortunate that they won a pair of games. As a team, they hit .231/.286/.358, but thanks to the fact that they got a lot of timely hits, they were able to put up 19 runs in four games. A .644 OPS does not often translate to 4.75 runs per game. On the flip side, the Tigers hit .297/.370/.483 but scored just 23 runs, significantly less than you’d expect from an .853 OPS. Pretty much all the clutch plays went in favor of the M’s, and well, that’s not a recipe for success.
Essentially, the M’s won two close games because they hit well at crucial times, Bruce Froemming blew a call, and the bullpen was unhittable. But in the other two games, the team didn’t really stand much of a chance, getting outclassed by a better opponent right out of the gates. The Mariners can look at this weekend as a success in the standings, no doubt, but if they were looking at this series as a litmus test for how well the team currently stacks up to the cream of the American League crop, well, there are reasons to worry. The Tigers were, without a doubt, the best team on the field this weekend. This roster, as currently composed, will be a significant underdog in any playoff series it might play.
One of the big stars of the series for the Tigers was center fielder Curtis Granderson, who torched Seattle pitchers on the way to an 8 for 16 series with two doubles, a triple, and a home run. Every time I turned around, Granderson was drilling a fastball into the alley and heading for extra bases. And, you know, he reminded me of someone. When I looked up the numbers that reflect a particular skillset, well, take a look for yourself:
Center Field BB% K% LD% BABIP ISO Granderson 7.5% 22.6% 23.0% 0.358 0.273 Adam Jones 7.3% 22.6% 22.0% 0.357 0.283
When we talk about promoting Adam Jones, one of the initial reactions from the skeptics is that he strikes out too much, and his current numbers suggest that his current skillset won’t translate well to the major leagues. Curtis Granderson disagrees. They have, essentially, almost identical skillsets. Think the Tigers should option Granderson to Toledo to work on his plate discipline?
Now, granted, we can’t just take Jones’ numbers against PCL pitchers and stick them in a major league line-up and expect identical performance. But the idea that Jones’ lack of walks and relatively high number of strikeouts expose some hidden flaw that will cause him to flail away helplessly at major league pitchers is just a myth. Granderson made a smooth transition from Triple-A to the majors two years ago, and he wasn’t as good a player then as Jones is now.
When you watched this series, which player did you think was making a bigger contribution to the Tigers – Curtis Granderson or Sean Casey? Which hitter were you afraid of? If the Tigers had to choose between Casey and Granderson, who do you think they’d pick?
Are we belaboring the point? Probably. But you know, this is a point that needs to be made – the Mariners fourth best position player is currently in Triple-A while the team fights for a playoff spot. That’s absurd, and it requires attention.
Game 89, Tigers at Mariners
Weaver vs Verlander, 1:05 pm.
Like Friday night’s game, this is another one the M’s will have to steal, because by all rights, they don’t really have any business winning a Weaver-Verlander matchup, even if Jeff has temporarily borrowed the Good Weaver costume the past few weeks.
Game 88, Tigers at Mariners
Batista vs Rogers, 7:05 pm.
Raul Ibanez since June 12th: .188/.225/.329
Raul Ibanez against lefties: .242/.255/.295
Rey Ordonez, career: .246/.289/.310
Maybe try not hitting Raul third tonight, guys? Anyone out there? Hello?
Bill Bavasi, Awesome Talker
If you’ve been to either of the USSM events where Bill joined us and candidly and openly discussed the team, you know that he’s a pretty funny dude. But he’s generally pretty reserved in his commentary to the media – his tombstone will probably decline to give the year he was born because that information is on a need to know basis – and keeps a pretty low profile compared to some other general managers.
Not anymore. In responding to the ridiculous assertion by Marlins president David Samson that Ichiro’s contract was “the end of the world as we know it”, Bavasi said this:
“My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is, ‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all,” Bavasi said Thursday. “So I’m not going to say anything at all. Is my mother the greatest or what?”
That’s hilarious on about 34 different levels.
Game 87, Tigers at Mariners
Bonderman vs Washburn, 7:05 pm.
Mariners run out the same line-up they did last night. Last night, they faced a lefty. Tonight, it’s a righty. Line-up unchanged.
Contrast that with Jim Leyland, who has Ryan Raburn in CF, Marcus Thames at first, and Craig Monroe in left field tonight, with Granderson and Casey on the bench and Thames switching positions after starting in left field last night. Why? Because Jim Leyland believes in the value of platoon splits and stacks his line-up with right-handed hitters when facing LHPs, such as Jarrod Washburn. If it’s good enough for Jim Leyland, who isn’t exactly a nerd with a blog who doesn’t understand the value of team chemistry and structured line-ups, it should be good enough for the Mariners. /end soap box.
This is a big game for the M’s – Bonderman’s a terrific pitcher with lights out stuff, and the Tigers destroy left-handed pitching, hitting .304/.361/.503 against southpaws this year. Safeco should keep some of his flyballs in the park, but still, if the M’s can pull this one out tonight, it will be a steal, and the M’s need to keep stealing games they shouldn’t win if they’re going to get into the playoffs.
Ichiro Press Conference Thread
Sorry Sean Green – your personal thread will have to wait until another day. Ichiro has bumped you.
Press conference starts in about 15 minutes. Commence WooHoo’ing now.
Some thoughts
(Quick Roster Note – M’s have signed Tomo Ohka to a minor league deal. He’s going to hang out in Tacoma and act as Horacio Ramirez insurance for a few weeks.)
Good win for the M’s last night. Felix pitched better than the box score will show, consistently lighting up the radar gun for the first time in a couple of months and getting a ton of ground balls. Curtis Granderson’s double was the only well struck drive of the game, and everything else just found a hole. When he got in trouble, he busted out the knockout slider to get some swinging strikes, showing that the Felix we saw in Boston is still in there, ready to be summoned when help is needed. If it keeps him healthy, I’m totally fine with Felix not trying to throw a perfect game every start. Note to Rick Rizzs, however – Felix’s fastball command is still terrible.
Sean Green deserves his own post. I’m going to give him one eventually.
At what point do we ask if J.J. Putz has put himself into the Cy Young race? Through the awesomeness of Win Probability (which accounts for high leverage performances, making it a reliable indicator of what actually happened but not a great estimator of talent), we can show that J.J. has added 4.2 wins to the team so far, a full run better than any other reliever in baseball (Takashi Saito, at 3.1 wins, is second), and a win and a half better than the next AL reliever (Hideki Okajima, 2.7 wins). In fact, J.J. Putz is #1 in the majors in Win Probability Added, with Alex Rodriguez being .3 wins behind him at 3.9 Wins Added.
Because of the way they’re used, closers get a WPA boost thanks to the high leverage nature of their innings, but no matter how you slice it, J.J. Putz is currently having a remarkably valuable season. When Eric Gagne won the Cy Young award in 2003, he posted a WPA of 6.74 – Putz is on pace to blow that number out of the water. In general, starting pitchers are far more valuable than relief pitchers, but J.J. Putz is not your average reliever, and he’s not having your average closer season. The guy’s a true relief ace, and if you’re wondering how the Mariners are 14 games over .500 with this roster, he and Ichiro and reasons 1A and 1B.
And, finally, let’s talk about John McLaren for a second. Remember all the hand wringing over the team suffering a letdown when Hargrove left? Yea, that didn’t happen. This team hasn’t played any differently since the resignation. They also haven’t been managed much differently. McLaren’s used his bench a little bit more, but overall, he’s just maintained the status quo. And watching him set the line-ups and employ his bullpen, I have to point this out, because it just defies logic.
John, when it comes to platoon splits, pick a fricking side. Either they matter or they don’t. When you set your line-up, they clearly don’t. Left-handed hitters are 2 for 28 against Andrew Miller this year, a ridiculous .071/.156/.107 line that makes even George Sherrill envious. Right-handers, meanwhile, are clipping along at a .260/.356/.425 rate. So, who did you hit third last night? Raul Ibanez, he of the .245/.258/.298 line against lefties. Ibanez, predictably, went 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts, with his first three outs coming in rally situations with a runner on base. When you turned in your line-up card, you made a clear assertion – the left/right match-up is not as important as having your “best hitters” face their guy as much as possible.
Then, in the 8th inning, you faced a decision. You used Sean Green to get Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen out to end the 7th, and he looked like his typical awesome self, mowing down the two-all stars. Due up for the Tigers – switch hitting Mike Rabelo, left-handed hitting Sean Casey, and right-handed hitting Omar Infante. Sherrill has been the team’s best setup guy, and with a switch hitter and a lefty due up, he might seem like the natural guy to go to.
But here’s the rub – the Tigers had Craig Monroe sitting on the bench, and while he’s not having a great year, Monroe does have one skill – mash lefties. In fact, he’s hitting .333/.342/.609 against them this year, and he has a career OPS of .830 against LHPs versus .728 versus RHPs. Sherrill vs Monroe isn’t a good matchup in a one run game – Sherrill’s a flyball guy, Monroe’s a home run hitter, and one mistake ties it up. So, if you bring in Sherrill, you know they’re pinch-hitting for Casey, and you’re going to have a bad matchup, based on platoon splits, on your hands.
You brought in Sherrill anyways, sending Sean Green to the showers. Sherrill got Rabelo out. The Tigers pinch-hit Craig Monroe for Sean Casey.
And then you decided platoon splits mattered. So, out comes George Sherrill and in comes Chris Reitsma. Reitsma, of course, is a far inferior pitcher to Sherrill. But he’s right-handed, and Monroe doesn’t hit right-handers very well, and he’d be followed by two more right-handed hitters (even if not particularly good ones in Infante and Inge). With three righties due up, you went and got the team’s fifth best relief pitcher and stuck him in the game. Why? Because of the right-right matchup.
Why do platoon splits matter so much that you remove a dominant lefty for a mediocre righty in the 8th inning of a one run game, but they don’t matter enough to not hit Raul Ibanez third against a 6’7 flamethrowing southpaw who is absolute death to left-handed hitters. How do those two opinions coexist? Either platoon splits matter or they don’t. Right now, we’re getting the worst of both worlds, with line-ups configured to put automatic outs in the middle of the line-ups and inferior pitchers replacing our dominant lefty setup guy.
In the end, the decisions you made last night worked in that you won the game, but let’s look at their actual results. In the first inning, Raul Ibanez’s strikeout took 3% off the team’s win probability, as you handed Andrew Miller an easy out with a runner on base. In the 3rd inning, Raul Ibanez’s fielders choice took 3% off the team’s win probability, forcing Vidro out at second base and again hurting a rally. In the 5th inning, Raul Ibanez’s flyout to right field took 4% off the team’s win probability, again harming a rally by making an out with a man on.
Ibanez’s first three at-bats combined to make the Mariners 10% more likely to lose the game. This is what ignoring platoon splits gets you – a bad hitter in situations where the team needs a good hitter. I’d love to hear a rational explanation for this. How do you continue to justify hitting Raul Ibanez third in the order while tacitly acknowledging the power of platoon splits with your bullpen management? I just don’t get it.
Game 86, Tigers at Mariners
Miller vs Hernandez, 7:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day. No, really, this might be the happiest Felix Day in a long time, because I can finally hang up the Mix Your Pitches soapbox and just enjoy the ballgame.
For those of you who aren’t familiar with the kid the Tigers are throwing tonight, well, you could say I’m something of a fan. I wrote this report in March of 2006, and I then spent the next few months trying to convince anyone who would listen that Andrew Miller was a left-handed Roy Halladay, and clearly the best pitcher in the draft. The Mariners picked 5th overall and selected Brandon Morrow. The Tigers then proceeded to take Miller with the next pick. (There were extenuating circumstances surrounding the draft, covered here, so I’m not criticizing the scouting department for not selecting Miller.)
Of course, Morrow has since been turned into Matt Thornton 2.0, a hard-throwing reliever with no command or secondary pitches. Meanwhile, despite pitching issues of their own, the Tigers refused to alter Miller’s development plan, having him begin the year in A-ball while refining his overall game until he was ready to step into their rotation. A month ago, they made the call, and Miller’s solidified himself as a key member of their pitching staff, and a guy who will be counted on to start for them in October should the Tigers make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Brandon Morrow’s lost his job as the right-handed setup man to Chris Reitsma and Sean Green, and will now pitch the middle innings when the ability to throw the ball over the plate is not required.
Had some different decisions been made, the two guys taking the hill tonight could both be Mariners – the 21-year-old right-handed prodigy and the 23-year-old left-handed phenom. Andrew Miller could have been starting for the Mariners tomorrow night. On the brightside, if we need someone to come in and issue an intentional walk, we’re set for the next 15 years, so that worked out well too.
But you know what? As much as I like Andrew Miller, he’s not Felix. Let’s hope the ace the Mariners actually do have shows up the rookie tonight.
New Readers, Comments, and Moderation
As you’ve probably noticed, USSM continues to grow, and especially lately, we’ve seen an influx of new readers and commenters through widespread references to the site. To those of you who have recently found the blog, welcome. We’re glad you’re here and hope you stick around.
However, when we experience significant growth in a short timespan, inevitably, we attract some folks who aren’t aware of the groundrules for being part of the discussion here at USSM. So, this post will serve as a primer for the new guys and a refresher for those of you who have been around awhile.