Game 54, Orioles at Mariners
A game thread that’s on time! Early, even!
7:05. Erik Bedard, who’s been having a pretty sweet year, faces Felix.
Bedard’s numbers, especially his strikeouts, are better than you’d expect, but the interesting thing is that his HR rate is actually a little over what you’d expect – he’s seen almost 12% of his line drives go over fences, which is almost 50% over his career rate. And he’s getting fewer grounders.
I don’t have a good explanation for whether he’s doing something different – I haven’t had a chance to see him this year – but I like going into this game thinking I might see a good pitching matchup.
Interesting lineup for the M’s:
DH-L Ichiro
2B-R Lopez
RF-R Guillen
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
3B-R Bloomquist
CF-R Ellison
Baltimore offers
2B-B Roberts
LF-R Payton
RF-L Markakis
SS-R Tejeda
1B-R Millar
DH-L Huff
3B-R Mora
C-R Hernandez
CF-L Patterson
Happy Felix Day for June 4th
May it be happier than last Felix Day.
The beer thing
If you’re curious – when I had the beer thing running for a couple days (and again very briefly this week) we got 45 beers out of it. Thanks much to the <1% that hit us (and by us, so far I mean “me”) with three dollars to enjoy a refreshing beverage — USSM pledges that your support will be funded directly into the purchase and consumption of suitable beverages for the authors.
Game 53, Rangers at Mariners
Ooooookay, so we all got caught napping (or, in my case, making breakfast for my mom) and it’s already 1-1. Sorry.
Game 52, Rangers at Mariners
Sorry, I just back from DeathRide 2007.
Uh! Loe v Batista! Both have been pretty crappy so far. Wooo!
Game 51, Rangers at Mariners
Millwood v Washburn.
M’s lineup is
CF-L Ichiro
DH-B Vidro
RF-R Guillen
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
C-R Johjima
3B-R Beltre
SS-R Betancourt
2B-R Lopez
Texas’ response?
CF-L Lofton
SS-R Young
1B-B Teixeira
DH-R Sosa
RF-B Diaz
LF-R Byrd
2B-R Kinsler
C-R Laird
3B-B Kata
Ew.
UZRs for 2007
By way of MGL (direct link to the spreadsheet). There’s some… we’ll call it counter-intuitive results in there.
True Tales from the Jeff Weaver Saga
Part One
May 11th
“Scott Boras Corporation, this is Sam, how can I help you?”
“Hey, I need to make a return.”
“Okay, let me transfer you to support.”
“Wait no-”
“Scott Boras Corporation Support Division, this is Amy, how can I help you?”
“I want to make a return.”
“In order to better assist our valued customers to achieve superior satisfaction with all of our products, we’d like to attempt to resolve the issue first, so that you don’t have to go through the trouble of a return.”
“Oh, it’s no trouble. Really.”
“I’m afraid that we can’t process a return until–”
“Fine, fine, let’s go through your stupid support tree.”
“Great, I’ll make every effort to ensure that this is a quick process for you. Now, can I get your name?”
“I bought this for my company, the Seattle Mariners.”
“Of course. Which Scott Boras Corporation product did you purchase?”
“Jeff Weaver.”
“Certainly. Let me just bring up the record. I’m not finding anything. Do you remember when you purchased him?”
“Yeah, lemme look at the receipt- January 26th.”
“Thanks. Ah, I’ve found it. So what seems to be the problem?”
“He sucks.”
“I’m sorry, could you be more specific?”
“This is ridiculous. He was advertised as throwing faster than we’ve seen from him, he isn’t able to establish or control any of his pitches, and the results of using him are well out of the specifications in the manual.”
“I apologize first for any inconvenience. Did you inspect him when he arrived to make sure he wasn’t damaged in delivery?”
“Yes. He looked fine.”
“Thank you, that’s helpful to us in determining the cause of your problems. Do you have the manual close by?”
“I kept all the original documentation together, yes.”
“On the back of the manual, in the lower right-hand corner, there should be a code. Can you read that to me?”
“BKO-DSS-10-01.”
“I’m sorry to hear that, and I apologize, it would appear that somehow you were given the documentation for the 2001 model, which is not the one you purchased.”
“Really.”
“That would explain the difference between your expectations and the product’s performance, but looking at the diagnostic information, I do see that product status updates do show an unacceptable field performance so far. I understand your frustration, and I apologize.”
“Please stop saying that.”
“I understand how our almost robotic politeness and disarming customer scripts can irritate someone who is already dissatisfied with our products, and I do apologize for that.”
“No, let’s move on. Can I return it then? It’s clearly not working.”
“Have you tried turning it off and then on again?”
“How in God’s name would I — no. No, I have not tried turning it off and then on again.”
“I apologize, I inadvertently read from the wrong script, as I’m on more than one support call right now for increased efficiency and customer service.”
“How do I return it?”
“Before you return it, is there anything you’ve been doing unusually with the unit, such as deploying it in environments not approved in the manual?”
“You said the manual was six years old.”
“I believe that the environmental specifications have not changed. Could you quickly review them and tell me–”
“Lemme see. Uh, I did not use it every fifth day, technically, and I guess the part about keeping him away from tin foil and Vermont Teddy Bears, I don’t remember reading that warning, but okay, that could have happened… but none of this seems serious.”
“Well, sir, we do put the warnings in the manual for a reason. It appears that your results may be due to having used the product in a manner countervening the instructions given to you. Did you purchase our extended support plan?”
“The what now?”
“I see from your invoice that you did not. Unfortunately, in order to issue a RMA number, we’ll have to evaluate the unit and make a determination whether your actions caused the damage before we can proceed with a refund or replace it with a refurbished unit –”
“A refurbished unit?”
“Yes, sir.”
“That’s it, I’m going over your head.”
“I’m sorry you feel that you’re receiving inadequate service, sir, and I apol- sir? Sir? It seems we’re experiencing problems with the line, and I apologize. Sir?”
Game 50, Rangers at Mariners
Padilla vs Baek, 7:05 pm.
Finally back at Safeco Field and facing a pretty lousy Rangers team.
Standard line-up applies.
Future Forty Updated for June
It’s the first of the month, and the major league team is frustrating to talk about, so that means it’s time for another Future Forty update, where we can focus on the future of the franchise rather than the present. Escapism at its finest.
May was quite a different month on the farm than April. Guys who started the season fell apart, while others found their form and surged ahead. I’ve gathered quite a few scouting reports from guys who have been scouting for a long time, and what they’ve seen has shifted my opinion a bit on a few players. So, let’s get to the guys who have made some waves, one way or another.
Wladimir Balentien’s OPS in May is 250 points lower than in April. That’s a huge dropoff in production, but also highlights why looking at value statistics such as OPS for minor leaguers will lead to flawed conclusions. Take a look at the numbers that reveal his secondary skills:
April: 10.1% BB/AB, 19.1% K/AB, 36.3% XBH/H, 1:1 HR/2B, 5 SB/1 CS
May: 11.0% BB/AB, 18.3% K/AB, 32.2% XBH/H, 1:1 HR/2B, 5 SB/1 CS
The walk and strikeout rates are statistical ties, and the XBH/H rate is basically the same. He’s split his extra base hits right down the middle between doubles and homers each month. He’s even stealing bases at the same clip. The massive drop in OPS is due entirely to the fact that balls that were going for singles in April became outs in May. There’s no less consistent skill in baseball for a hitter than the ability to hit a single, as the difference is often a couple inches here or there. It’s a ball falling in or sneaking under a glove. Hitting a lot of singles is rarely a sign of actual skill, with Ichiro being an obvious exception.
So, if you were to look at Balentien’s BA/OBP/SLG splits by month, you’d come to the conclusion that he was a significantly better player in April than he was last year. In terms of helping the Rainiers win, you’d be right. In terms of evaluating his talent level, which is really what prospect analysis is all about, you’d be missing the point, though. However you felt about Balentien at the end of April should be exactly how you feel about him now, because he just had the exact same month, just with a significantly smaller dose of luck.
I won’t talk too much about Adam Jones here, because we’ve covered the topic already, but he’s ready for the majors. 17 of his 33 hits in May went for extra bases, including 8 home runs. He’s improved his approach at the plate and he’s crushing mistakes. His defense is also vastly improved over where it was last season. If he was on the 25 man roster, he’d be the Mariners fifth best hitter and second best defensive outfielder. He’s a significantly better player than Raul Ibanez, Jose Vidro, Ben Broussard, or Richie Sexson right now. If the Mariners are serious about winning games, they should find a way to get him at-bats in the major league line-up.
And finally, from Tacoma, Jeff Clement. There are things to like in his statistical profile. 19 of his 42 hits have gone for extra bases and he’s drawn 20 walks in 172 at-bats. He’s running an .859 OPS in May, a huge upgrade over the .681 mark he posted in April and the .668 mark he put up in Tacoma last year. Behind only Ben Broussard, he’s got the second most left-handed power in the organization. So, there are reasons to be somewhat optimistic.
Good luck finding a scout who thinks he’s going to be much of a major league player, though. The reports on him from the first two months of the season have been absolutely brutal. Everyone says he’s swinging a very slow bat, can’t get around on fastballs on the inner half, chases pitches up in the zone, and is only effective when he knows he’s getting a fastball from a guy who can’t get it up there faster than 92. I haven’t gotten a good explanation for why his bat has slowed so much since college, but everyone agrees that it has. He hasn’t made the transition to wood bats well, and at this point, his offensive production is a question mark. To boot, pretty much everyone has given up on him as a major league catcher. He’s DH’ing more often, and his major league position now looks like first base or designated hitter.
For a guy who turns 24 in a few months and has lost his defensive value, he needs to be tearing the cover off the ball in the PCL. He’s just not, and not many people think he’s going to start doing so any time soon. I’ve downgraded him on the list, and he’s now more of a guy the M’s hope might be able to help them as a role player next year than any kind of catcher of the future. If the team could have that pick to do over again, I’m pretty sure they’d go another direction.
Okay, enough Tacoma stuff. Let’s talk about Tui’s struggles the last month. Remember what you read about Wlad a few paragraphs ago? Yea, same thing. He’s actually jumped his walk rate up by 50% during his slump, is getting XBH at the same rate, but all those April singles have turned into May outs. He’s not a .370 hitter, but he’s not a .205 hitter either. The lack of power is still a problem, but the improved approach at the plate is a significant development, and I’m still very happy with the first two months he’s put together. The ball will start finding holes again, and if Tui can learn to drive the ball more often, he can still turn himself into a useful major league player.
Down in High Desert, Chris Tillman made his second start last night since getting promoted from Wisconsin, and it didn’t go well. It was never a good idea to put him in the California League at this point, and the early results are about as bad as we feared they would be. The M’s still believe in making their prospects fail at an early age – we still disagree with that idea of player development. No point rehashing the argument here, but needless to say, I feel bad for Chris Tillman. A promising season from a young kid was just flushed down the drain in lieu of seeing how he overcomes artificial adversity.
The hottest hitter in the organization resides in Wisconsin, where Kuo-Hui Lo began the season 22 for his first 120, a paltry .183 average, with all of 3 extra base hits, 7 walks, and 23 strikeouts in his first 31 games. Struggling didn’t begin to define it. But he’s reminding people why they like the bat, as he’s now 15 for his last 35 with 5 extra base hits, 4 walks, and 4 strikeouts in his last 10 games. He’s driving the ball, working the count, and showing that there is life in his bat.
And no Future Forty would be complete without a note about my underaged mancrush, Carlos Triunfel. He hit .326/.357/.424 in May, as a 17-year-old in the Midwest League. He showed some real power, driving 7 extra base hits, and actually drew walks in back to back games. His game is still ridiculously raw (he’s been picked off of first base four times in two months), but the bat is just so very special. He’s now only the second Mariner prospect ever to receive a 10 reward rating on the Future Forty. He’s still all projection at this point, but the ceiling is basically limitless. He’s got a real chance to be the next great Mariner hitter, and it’s been a long time since we had a prospect we could write that about.