Draft Rumblings
We’re now two days away from the MLB amateur draft. This is about the time when teams start getting a pretty good idea of who is going where ahead of them and solidifying the organization’s opinions on who to select. Consequently, this is when better information about who is going where starts to leak out, so even though the Mariners pick 11th, we’re starting to get some reliable rumblings on what they’re expected to do.
Most everyone in baseball believes the Mariners are going to select a pitcher. They’ve followed some hitters, notably Beau Mills of Lewis and Clark State in Idaho, but in the end, they’re almost certainly going to take a pitcher. The pervailing consensus is that the organization is also heavily leaning towards taking a college arm, as they want someone who can get to the majors very quickly. Much like with Brandon Morrow last year, they’re hoping to draft a kid who can spend a few months, at most, in the minor leagues. The team continues to be in win-now mode, and that is going to spill over to the first pick in this year’s draft.
The problem, however, is that this is a pretty lousy draft for college pitching. David Price and Ross Detwiler are the two top arms coming out of NCAA schools, and there’s essentially no chance that either one is there for the M’s at #11. Price is going #1 to Tampa, and Detwiler is expected to go in the 3-8 range, and it’s nearly impossible to see him getting past Arizona at #9.
So, that leaves the Mariners to set their sights on Daniel Moskos, a 6’0 lefty from Clemson who has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen in his college career. He was a reliever as a freshman, the Tigers closer as a sophomore, and pitched out of the bullpen for Team USA last summer. He made nine starts for Clemson this spring, but also came out of the bullpen in 17 games, and those nine starts represent the entirity of his experience in the rotation since high school.
I saw Moskos pitch for Team USA last summer, and he’s exactly how the scouting report reads – a max effort lefty with 92-96 MPH velocity on a four seam fastball, a nasty slider that makes him death on lefties, a show-me curveball that isn’t much of a pitch, and a change-up that has enough sink to be useful against right-handers. The main knocks scouts have on him is his unathletic body, as there’s no room for him to add any strength on his frame, and his high effort delivery which puts a good amount of strain on his arm.
When pitching in the rotation for Clemson, Moskos’ velocity was down (as it is with any reliever who moves to the rotation, really), and he was sitting at 88-92. As a reliever, he can get the fastball up to 97 and is much more of a strikeout pitcher. The stuff drops off significantly as a starter, and he’d profile as a #4 or #5 starter if stretched out and placed into a major league rotation.
As a reliever, he’s got the potential to be a quality setup man, not all that different from George Sherrill, honestly. If that sounds like the type of guy you want with the 11th pick in the draft, well, Thursday might be your lucky day. Most signs point to the M’s selecting Moskos if he’s available at #11.
If someone pops Moskos in the top ten (and it’s possible, as the Mariners aren’t the only team looking for quick help on Thursday), then things get a little murky. The M’s want to draft a college arm, but after Price/Detwiler, you’re really stretching to find anyone who belongs to be taken before the 20-30 range. Casey Weathers is a reliever out of Vanderbilt who is going to stay in the bullpen and could get to the majors quickly with his 96 MPH fastball and slider combination. But there’s no chance Weathers moves to the rotation. Beyond Weathers, you’re looking at a guy like Nick Schmidt, who has very little upside and no outpitch. Think a left-handed Joe Blanton.
The talents who should be taken in the 11-15 range are mostly high school pitchers, including 6’7 RHP Philippe Aumont. If the M’s get over their desire to have someone get to the majors quickly, there are some high ceiling arms who could be major league ready starters in 3-4 years. However, all signs point to the organization lacking the patience to develop an 18-year-old pitcher, and the odds are on them selecting someone who they can potentially get to the majors in September.
So, my guess is that Moskos is the pick on Thursday, with Weathers and Schmidt as fall back plans, and Aumont as the longshot.
I’ll put something up again tomorrow and Thursday morning with the latest rumblings.
Game 54, Orioles at Mariners
A game thread that’s on time! Early, even!
7:05. Erik Bedard, who’s been having a pretty sweet year, faces Felix.
Bedard’s numbers, especially his strikeouts, are better than you’d expect, but the interesting thing is that his HR rate is actually a little over what you’d expect – he’s seen almost 12% of his line drives go over fences, which is almost 50% over his career rate. And he’s getting fewer grounders.
I don’t have a good explanation for whether he’s doing something different – I haven’t had a chance to see him this year – but I like going into this game thinking I might see a good pitching matchup.
Interesting lineup for the M’s:
DH-L Ichiro
2B-R Lopez
RF-R Guillen
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
3B-R Bloomquist
CF-R Ellison
Baltimore offers
2B-B Roberts
LF-R Payton
RF-L Markakis
SS-R Tejeda
1B-R Millar
DH-L Huff
3B-R Mora
C-R Hernandez
CF-L Patterson
Happy Felix Day for June 4th
May it be happier than last Felix Day.
The beer thing
If you’re curious – when I had the beer thing running for a couple days (and again very briefly this week) we got 45 beers out of it. Thanks much to the <1% that hit us (and by us, so far I mean “me”) with three dollars to enjoy a refreshing beverage — USSM pledges that your support will be funded directly into the purchase and consumption of suitable beverages for the authors.
Game 53, Rangers at Mariners
Ooooookay, so we all got caught napping (or, in my case, making breakfast for my mom) and it’s already 1-1. Sorry.
Game 52, Rangers at Mariners
Sorry, I just back from DeathRide 2007.
Uh! Loe v Batista! Both have been pretty crappy so far. Wooo!
Game 51, Rangers at Mariners
Millwood v Washburn.
M’s lineup is
CF-L Ichiro
DH-B Vidro
RF-R Guillen
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
C-R Johjima
3B-R Beltre
SS-R Betancourt
2B-R Lopez
Texas’ response?
CF-L Lofton
SS-R Young
1B-B Teixeira
DH-R Sosa
RF-B Diaz
LF-R Byrd
2B-R Kinsler
C-R Laird
3B-B Kata
Ew.
UZRs for 2007
By way of MGL (direct link to the spreadsheet). There’s some… we’ll call it counter-intuitive results in there.
True Tales from the Jeff Weaver Saga
Part One
May 11th
“Scott Boras Corporation, this is Sam, how can I help you?”
“Hey, I need to make a return.”
“Okay, let me transfer you to support.”
“Wait no-”
“Scott Boras Corporation Support Division, this is Amy, how can I help you?”
“I want to make a return.”
“In order to better assist our valued customers to achieve superior satisfaction with all of our products, we’d like to attempt to resolve the issue first, so that you don’t have to go through the trouble of a return.”
“Oh, it’s no trouble. Really.”
“I’m afraid that we can’t process a return until–”
“Fine, fine, let’s go through your stupid support tree.”
“Great, I’ll make every effort to ensure that this is a quick process for you. Now, can I get your name?”
“I bought this for my company, the Seattle Mariners.”
“Of course. Which Scott Boras Corporation product did you purchase?”
“Jeff Weaver.”
“Certainly. Let me just bring up the record. I’m not finding anything. Do you remember when you purchased him?”
“Yeah, lemme look at the receipt- January 26th.”
“Thanks. Ah, I’ve found it. So what seems to be the problem?”
“He sucks.”
“I’m sorry, could you be more specific?”
“This is ridiculous. He was advertised as throwing faster than we’ve seen from him, he isn’t able to establish or control any of his pitches, and the results of using him are well out of the specifications in the manual.”
“I apologize first for any inconvenience. Did you inspect him when he arrived to make sure he wasn’t damaged in delivery?”
“Yes. He looked fine.”
“Thank you, that’s helpful to us in determining the cause of your problems. Do you have the manual close by?”
“I kept all the original documentation together, yes.”
“On the back of the manual, in the lower right-hand corner, there should be a code. Can you read that to me?”
“BKO-DSS-10-01.”
“I’m sorry to hear that, and I apologize, it would appear that somehow you were given the documentation for the 2001 model, which is not the one you purchased.”
“Really.”
“That would explain the difference between your expectations and the product’s performance, but looking at the diagnostic information, I do see that product status updates do show an unacceptable field performance so far. I understand your frustration, and I apologize.”
“Please stop saying that.”
“I understand how our almost robotic politeness and disarming customer scripts can irritate someone who is already dissatisfied with our products, and I do apologize for that.”
“No, let’s move on. Can I return it then? It’s clearly not working.”
“Have you tried turning it off and then on again?”
“How in God’s name would I — no. No, I have not tried turning it off and then on again.”
“I apologize, I inadvertently read from the wrong script, as I’m on more than one support call right now for increased efficiency and customer service.”
“How do I return it?”
“Before you return it, is there anything you’ve been doing unusually with the unit, such as deploying it in environments not approved in the manual?”
“You said the manual was six years old.”
“I believe that the environmental specifications have not changed. Could you quickly review them and tell me–”
“Lemme see. Uh, I did not use it every fifth day, technically, and I guess the part about keeping him away from tin foil and Vermont Teddy Bears, I don’t remember reading that warning, but okay, that could have happened… but none of this seems serious.”
“Well, sir, we do put the warnings in the manual for a reason. It appears that your results may be due to having used the product in a manner countervening the instructions given to you. Did you purchase our extended support plan?”
“The what now?”
“I see from your invoice that you did not. Unfortunately, in order to issue a RMA number, we’ll have to evaluate the unit and make a determination whether your actions caused the damage before we can proceed with a refund or replace it with a refurbished unit –”
“A refurbished unit?”
“Yes, sir.”
“That’s it, I’m going over your head.”
“I’m sorry you feel that you’re receiving inadequate service, sir, and I apol- sir? Sir? It seems we’re experiencing problems with the line, and I apologize. Sir?”
Game 50, Rangers at Mariners
Padilla vs Baek, 7:05 pm.
Finally back at Safeco Field and facing a pretty lousy Rangers team.
Standard line-up applies.