The beer button
About that beer thing: I was playing around with plugins on Friday and threw that up for a minute to play with, Russ Hausman immediately hit it, and I cracked up laughing. Since then, ten others joined him, and I bought decent beer last night for the first time in ages (beer turned out to be more expensive than $3, but whatever, right).
Now, I don’t know if asking for random small amounts randomly for a specific purpose is more effective, or really how we might get any amount of money out of USSM, much less make a delicious living at it, but in terms of random experimentation, that worked out kind of nicely and made me grin last night while enjoying an Anchor Steam.
Game 45, Mariners at Royals
Baek v Bannister.
On the other hand, only a couple more days until Felix Day again, right? Am I right?
Lineup goodness: Ibanez bats 3rd, Broussard gets a start in right field and bats 5th. Hmm.
Game 44! King Felix vs Gil Meche, Opening Day Starter
Woooooooooooooooooo!!!!
HoRam to DL, Huber up
PI’s reporting that Horacio Ramirez is on the DL, while Jon Huber’s been recalled from AAA. Hickey speculates that Weaver’s the obvious move to come off the DL and take Ramirez’s next start.
HoRam’s made-up suspect totally legitimate injury is “left shoulder tendinitis” I understand. Weaver is on the DL with right shoulder tendinitis. Both of them suck.
Jon Huber’s thrown 24 2/3rds innings in Tacoma, allowing 26 H, 2 HR, 5 BB, and 19 K.
Felix Day
O Felix Day
O Felix Day
You come too seldom
Felix Day…
Game 43, Mariners at Devil Rays
Horacio Ramirez vs Jae Seo, 12:10 pm.
Lousy LH pitcher vs Lousy RH starter. This should be fun.
Ibanez still not healthy, so we get Broussard in left field. And it’s time for another Adrian Beltre day off, so we get WFB at third base.
With a left-handed pitcher on the mound, we’ve dramatically reduced the defensive abilities of the left side of our defense. You know, the side that fields most balls hit by right-handed hitters. With a lefty on the mound, I’m guessing Tampa will have a few right-handed hitters in their line-up. (Yep, all nine Tampa starters are right-handed today).
I love how Hargrove doesn’t give this kind of stuff any thought at all.
Oh, and also, the Mariners have promoted Chris Tillman to High Desert of the California League. If he keeps his ERA under 6.00, it’s a great year.
Ichiro The Underrated
If you’ve read any of the comment threads lately, you know there’s a significant portion of the fan base that wants the Mariners to trade Ichiro this summer before he becomes a free agent. Tacoma News Tribune columnist John McGrath has been beating this drum for years. And last night, Geoff Baker threw out the following comments on his blog:
To settle a debate starting up in the previous post’s comments thread, I will not be re-evaluating my stance on Ichiro anytime soon. I like him at his current contract numbers, but not at what they will likely inflate to next season. He is having a great May, no doubt, but was invisible through too much of April. He has to do more than go on a great three-week run to change my mind. That’s a lot of coin he’s looking for. This is a .500 team (after tonight) he’s playing on. Maybe if he helps lead them to the postseason the way Shannon Stewart did the Minnesota Twins a couple of years back (or the way Ichiro did it in 2001) then I’ll start believing. But right now, for $15 million to $20 million, I don’t think he brings enough. Even with his stellar defense. That .800 OPS is not the same as some of those other center fielders bring in the power and RBI departments. Speed is his big threat and I still think he has to use it more.
I think a large and growing part of the Mariner fanbase agrees with Geoff on this. When the conversation of Ichiro comes up in a crowd, invariably, half of them will talk about his unwillingness to be a leader, his lack of power, the frustrating slumps he goes into, his selection of when to steal bases, and his lower OPS compared to other players who are considered stars. There are a lot of people who view Ichiro as a good-but-not-great player, a uniquely talented singles hitter who doesn’t do enough other things to help a team win. I’m betting that a lot of you guys reading this post feel that way.
In fact, I think this viewpoint has become so commonly accepted among fans that Ichiro is now one of the most underrated players in baseball. I’m not one who thought he was really the MVP in his 2001 season where the baseball writers went nuts over the guy, and I spent his first few years in Seattle calling him overrated. Now, the pendulum has swung too far the other. Ichiro is now better than people believe.
Skeptical? Name the center fielders in baseball you’d rather have than Ichiro.
Grady Sizemore.
Carlos Beltran.
That’s it. That’s my list. You might have been able to make a case for Andruw Jones before this year began, but if you’re worried about Ichiro declining as he ages, you should be frightened by what has happened to Andruw this year, hitting .216 and striking out in 33% of his plate appearances. Vernon Wells continues to settle in as a productive non-star with his age 27 season of last year looking more and more like a career year. Torii Hunter, likewise, is an above average player who simply isn’t in Ichiro’s league.
Ichiro is pretty clearly the third best center fielder in baseball, and there’s a pretty big gap between him and whoever you think #4 might be. The third best player in the game at an up the middle position, and people aren’t convinced that he’s really a great player?
Let’s look at those knocks against him again.
Career .813 OPS is underwhelming.
An .813 OPS while playing half your games in Safeco Field is a lot more valuable than an .813 OPS in other parks. The average OPS for a player in Ichiro’s context would be .746, meaning he’s been 19 percent better than the league average hitter during his time in Seattle. His OPS+ of 119, for comparison, is higher than Andruw Jones’ career mark (117). Johnny Damon has exactly one season where he posted an OPS+ of higher than 119 – that was 120, last year. His career mark is 104. Vernon Wells – 112. Torii Hunter – 104.
OPS also ignores two other things that are quite valuable parts of Ichiro’s game – baserunning and health. Ichiro’s among the very best baserunners in the game, adding 4 to 5 runs a year just with his legs. It might seem like a minor deal, but it separates him even further from the pack.
But health is the big key here. In his 6 1/2 years in Seattle, Ichiro has played in 999 of a possible 1,014 games. He’s played 98.5% of all Mariner games since he joined the team. He’s the most durable player going today, a guy who simply does not get hurt thanks to his insane stretching routines. He doesn’t take days off due to back spasms. His hamstrings don’t tighten up. He just doesn’t get hurt. He shows up to the park, every day, and plays at 100%.
No rate statistic, one that boils everything down to production per at-bat, is going to properly value Ichiro’s remarkable endurance. Not only does he play at a high level, but he plays every single day.
He doesn’t run enough.
Last year, Ichiro stole 45 bases and was caught twice. If you want him to run more, what you’re really saying is you want him to get thrown out more. Ichiro understands better than anyone watching at home when the probabilties of him taking the bag are in his favor. He could be a more aggressive basestealer, picking up 60-70 steals a year if he ran more often. Jose Reyes stole 64 bases last year, for instance, but it took him 81 tries to do it. Ichiro was 45 for 47. Are those 19 extra steals worth 15 extra outs? No way.
Ichiro doesn’t run as often as other basestealers. And that is why he gets thrown out at a far reduced rate, making his baserunning even more valuable than if he ran like a wreckless maniac. Ichiro’s one of the two or three best baserunners in baseball today. Complaining about how he handles himself once he gets on first base is like complaining about Albert Pujols’ home run trot.
He’s not a leader – He only cares about himself and his numbers – He’s aloof.
Pick your criticism of Ichiro’s personality, because there are certianly enough to go around. It’s no secret that most of the guys who cover the Mariners on a daily basis don’t like Ichiro. He doesn’t give good interviews even though he clearly speaks very good English, the quotes come through a translator and often don’t make a lot of sense, he dresses funny, he does his own pre-game routine, and he’s nothing like the stereotypical caucasion “leader” guy who calls team meetings, pumps his fist when the team wins, and gives quotes that makes the media’s job easy.
But you know what? There’s simply no evidence – none, whatsoever – that Ichiro’s unique personality has a negative effect on his teammates performance. He was just as quirky from 2001 to 2003 when the Mariners were winning 90+ games a year. Now that he’s surrounded by bad players instead of good players, it’s apparently his fault for not turning himself into an American Leader and making Horacio Ramirez not suck at pitching.
Give me a break. Every negative thing that fans believe about Ichiro’s personality is the direct result of an article written by a member of the media. We’re supposed to not like Ichiro because they don’t like Ichiro.
I’m a Mariner fan, not a beat writer fan. I don’t particularly care if Ichiro is a good quote or not. And I’m not going to let the personal views of a few 50-year-old white men color my opinion of Ichiro’s value to the team. He’s a great player, and the fact that he’s not beatwriter friendly doesn’t change that at all.
Ichiro is one of the very best players in the game. He’s a true star, a guy who is worth 5 wins a year over an average center fielder. He’s nearly impossible to replace, and he’s the main reason the Mariners are a .500 team despite some pretty bad teammates.
He’s going to be paid like a star this winter because he is a star. He’s an elite player at a premium position who never gets hurt and shows no signs of aging. The knocks on him are vastly overstated, and it’s pretty remarkable that we’ve come so far that we now have to write a post about how underrated Ichiro is among Mariner fans. But he is, and he shouldn’t be.
Also, we’re going to ask you to refrain from turning comment threads into sounding boards for your personal trade suggestions. It’s just not good content, and we’ll be proactive about deleting comments that head in that direction.
Game 42, Mariners at Devil Rays
4:10. All the Mariners need to do to stay in this, to catch up, to take the division, is win, and win, and win. Today, they need to beat Casey Fossum, and Casey Fossum’s 3-3 with a 7.80 ERA. Win, dammit, win.
Fossum’s not-superficial stats: 45 IP, 10 HR, 12 BB, 26 K
Batista’s not-superficial stats: 45 IP, 6 HR, 14 BB, 26 K
Third Place Books next Wednesday
Hey everyone – next Wednesday, the 30th, is the rescheduled date for my appearance at Third Place Books. 7pm. Their event calendar is here. Please do come out, it’s always nice to hang around with USSMers and hopefully the team will be on a terrific tear and we’ll all be in good moods.
Wacky fun fact: the next day features two local science fiction/fantasy authors, Kay Kenyon and Louise Marley. Marley wrote the short story “Diamond Girls” aaand a nice review of the Cheater’s Guide to Baseball, over at Amazon. I thought that was kind of cool.
The Adam Jones Conundrum
Down in Cheney Stadium yesterday afternoon, Adam Jones went 3 for 5 with a home run. Or rather, I should say, another home run. Becaue he went 3 for 5 with a home run on Monday, too. He also launched one vs Tucson last Thursday, he hit two in Albuquerque on the 13th, and he hit one in Round Rock on the 10th. He has six home runs in his last 10 games and is hitting .351/.448/.703 in May.
Jones has taken clear steps forward across the board this year. He’s raised his walk rate from 6.7% last year to 10.2% this year while keeping his strikeout rate the same, showing that he’s working the count without staring at hittable pitches. He’s also raised his average without sacrificing power, hitting .321 with 36.5% of his hits going for extra bases. He’s hitting the ball on the ground more often this year, turning on fastballs and driving them through the hole between 3rd and SS. His route running has improved significantly, and while he’s still got some more room to go defensively, he’s now becoming much more of an asset with the glove.
Adam Jones is ready for the majors. If major league rosters and line-ups were simple talent competitions, where the best player in the organization got the job regardless of other factors, he would be the Mariners starting left fielder. He’s a better player today than Raul Ibanez in every aspect of the game.
However, Adam Jones is also one other thing that Raul Ibanez is not – right handed. As we discussed last week, the Mariners offense is already too RH heavy. With only Ichiro, Vidro, and Ibanez providing left-handed bats, the team has a power shortage whenever they face a right-handed pitcher, simply due to basic matchups.
The M’s can’t permanently replace Raul Ibanez with Adam Jones. Even if Raul wasn’t designated as Mariner For Life by the executives, this team cannot afford to sub out a left-handed bat for a right-handed bat and become even more unbalanced. And, being pragmatic, there’s just no way that Raul Ibanez loses his job to Adam Jones in the middle of a push for a playoff spot. It won’t happen.
But Adam Jones is one of the 5 or 6 best hitters in the organization right now, and with the team doing whatever it takes to try and win, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to have that kind of asset hanging out in Tacoma and blistering Triple-A pitching.
What’s the answer here? Honestly, I wish I had one. Perhaps you trade Jose Guillen to a team that needs a power hitting outfielder, such as Minnesota, and install Jones in his place. But that doesn’t make the offense any better, since Guillen’s one of the shining stars of the first two months of the season. Maybe you call-up Jones and have him play the fourth outfielder role, starting over Ibanez against lefties and giving Guillen and Ichiro days off here and there. But then you’re asking Mike Hargrove to actually run something of a platoon, and to take a veteran out of the line-up in place of a kid, neither of which are likely to happen without an edict from heaven.
The M’s are in something of a quandary. They have a guy in Tacoma who can help them win games, a team in need of help, and no easy answers for how to fit a good hitter into the line-up. This is part of why we hated the last offseason – the M’s removed huge amounts of flexibility by tying up the DH spot, essentially eliminating the chance for Adam Jones to provide a spark during the season.
He needs to be on the team. I just don’t know how they pull it off.