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Why the Tigers should win

DMZ · October 20, 2006 · Filed Under General baseball

I know that I should have been more interested in the NLCS than I was, and Game Seven was great watching, but for whatever reason, I just couldn’t get myself interested in it, and ended up watching while thinking about what I was going to do about my house’s plumbing, which is a whole other topic.

Anyway, during the playoff posts and comment threads I repeatedly said that I figured whoever came out of the NL was likely to be cannon fodder to the AL, and I’ve kept at it, writing that either the Cardinals or Mets were going to be mowed down by the Tigers.

Why, in a short series, would I be so certain about that? That’s a good point – in seven games, the chances the better team wins aren’t all that great anyway. I was being cavalier about it. But here’s my thinking.

Pitching-wise, the Tigers have a series of really good matchups. I don’t know that given the layoff I’d have run my rotation out like this, but look at this

Game 1: RHP Reyes (Cards) v RHP Verlander (Tigers)
Game 2: RHP Weaver (Cards) v LHP Rogers (Tigers)
Game 3: RHP Carpenter (Cards) v LHP Robertson (Tigers)
Game 4: RHP Suppan (Cards) v RHP Bonderman (Tigers)

Detroit hit .766 v LHP and .782 against RHP, which isn’t a huge advantage, but the Cardinals have nobody to throw at them from that side. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are .731/.784 and they’re going to see two lefties in four games.

Anthony Reyes is homer-prone, gives up walks, but did get his share of Ks (7.6/9 IP), which may mean that playing him in Game 1 in Detroit could help him a lot.

So compare him to Verlander.
Reyes: 20% line drive percentage, 35% ground ball, 46% fly ball
Verlander: 23% line driver percentage, 42% ground ball, 35% fly ball

But Reyes’ HRs come from a 14% of HRs of line drives where Verlander’s only getting like 10%. But then Verlander doesn’t walk guys nearly as often… it’s not quite the mismatch it seems initially (5.06 ERA to 3.83!!) but Verlander’s had by far a better year. For a Game 1 it’s kind of disappointing this is the matchup.

Then RHP Weaver v LHP Rogers. Weaver’s had a decent offf-season, but he’s not the pitcher Rogers has been all year.

Finally in game three, we get a decent matchup with RHP Carpenter v LHP Robertson. Carpenter’s by far the better pitcher.

But then in 4 it’s Suppan v Bonderman. Please. If Suppan’s good, Bonderman’s better.

What’s more, for all the stat-to-stat matching we can do, the Tigers put up their numbers against a much stronger division and league than those Cardinals pitchers did, just as their hitters, while not statistically that much stronger than the Cardinals, did so in a much more competitive environment.

So I look at this and the only game I’d pick the Cardinals for is #3, while I’d almost call two and four for the Tigers already.

I’m feel like the Tigers are rightly the heavy favorites to take the series, and I think there’s a good chance they’re going to make it short and ugly for the Cardinals.

That said, I don’t understand what Leyland’s doing.

October 13th – Rogers started
October 14th – Bonderman started
… then they’ve had six days off. They could have put together any rotation they wanted.

So who do you logically want to pitch as many times in the series as possible? Bonderman, right? Followed by Verlander/Robertson/Rogers depending on matchups. BONDERMAN. BON-DER-MAN

Game 1: Bonderman
Game 2: Rogers, say
off
Game 3: Verlander
Game 4: Robertson
Game 5: Bonderman
off
Game 6: Rogers
Game 7: Verlander

And in that last game, maybe you throw Bonderman in along with the kitchen sink, but likely it won’t come to that.

Maybe Leyland’s thinking he wants the fly ballers to pitch at home. Regular season FB%:
Bonderman 32%
Rogers 32%
Robertson 33%
Verlander 35%

That’s not enough of a difference to justify this. I don’t have good park factors for New Busch, so I’m not sure if there’s a huge LHP/RHP difference, but even then, the current rotation has one RHP, one LHP at home and then on the road.

So I don’t understand what Leyland’s doing if this is indeed his rotation. But I’ve now digressed too far.

My argument is that the Tigers took a much rougher road this season and I don’t see even their on-paper-comperable offenses as equal, defensively it’s about a wash (watching the talking heads today, I don’t think the Tigers are getting nearly enough credit, btw), and the pitching matchups are way, way in the Tigers’ favor.

30 Comments

10/19’s thrilling NLCS action

DMZ · October 19, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners

Wheeeeeee! Suppan v Perez! I don’t know about you, but I’m locking the door and leaving the phone off the hook. This one’s going to be a barnburner! Can we just flip a coin to declare who gets sacrificed to the Tigers and get it over with?

Or am I being too pessimistic about this whole series? What’s a good reason to hang around and see tonight’s game?

213 Comments

October 18th’s thrilling playoff baseball

DMZ · October 18, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners

Cardinals at Mets! Chris Carpenter faces… John Maine? Really? Oookay. 5:19ish.

I almost forgot this was going to be on… it only occurred to me that there might be something on when I took a break from book work just now and looked at a schedule page. Yes, that’s how into this NLCS I am.

85 Comments

Recommended Blogs

Dave · October 18, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners

Last week, a few folks asked if we could recommend some sites that cover other teams in a similar way that we cover the Mariners. Thanks to the explosion of blogging, a veritable cornocopia of team specific sites have popped up over the past few years, and nearly every organization in baseball has a quality site devoted to the team. So, what follows is a list of my recommended blogs for the rest of baseball; these sites have all published content that I have read and enjoyed at some point in time, and while they vary in quality, they’ve all earned the recognition as one of the better sources of information for their particular club.

AL West

Oakland: Athletics Nation
Texas: The Newberg Report and LoneStar Ball
Anaheim: Chronicles of the Lad
Seattle: Lookout Landing and Marinerds

AL Central

Minnesota: Bat Girl, Stick and Ball Guy, and Twins Geek
Kansas City: Rob and Rany and Royals Review
Detroit: Tigers Central
Cleveland: Lets Go Tribe
Chicago: Sox Machine

AL East

New York: Bronx Banter, Pinstriped Blog, and Replacement Level Yankee Weblog
Boston: Sons of Sam Horn
Baltimore: Orioles Hangout and Birds in the Belfry
Toronto: The Batters Box
Tampa Bay: Rays of Light

NL West

Arizona: Snake Pit
San Diego: Duck Snorts
Los Angeles: Dodger Thoughts
Colorado: Purple Row
San Francisco: McCovey Chronicles

NL Central

Chicago: Cub Reporter and Cub Town
Milwaukee: Brewer Fan
Houston: Crawfish Boxes
St. Louis: Viva El Birdos
Pittsburgh: Bucs Dugout
Cincinatti: Red Reporter

NL East

Philadelphia: Phillies Nation
Atlanta: Sabernomics
New York: Amazin’ Avenue
Florida: Fish Stripes
Washington: Capitol Punishment

So, there’s at least one link for every team. However, there are some that are good enough that you should read them even if you’re not trolling for team specific content. These guys are the best of the bunch, in my opinion, and I give them my full endorsement:

These include Lookout Landing, Bat Girl, Pinstriped Blog, The Batters Box, Dodger Thoughts, Brewer Fan, and Sabernomics.

So, hopefully this helps you guys. If you’re looking for information on a certain team, at the very least, most of these are a good starting spot.

40 Comments

Ahh, playoff baseball for 10/17

DMZ · October 17, 2006 · Filed Under Game Threads, General baseball

Glavine v Weaver in a battle to see who gets to lose to the Tigers! I’m excited.

58 Comments

And I’m Back

Dave · October 17, 2006 · Filed Under Mariners

Transcontinental flights suck. Just so you know.

Anyways, I’m back on the east coast and trying to get caught up on life. Since I haven’t posted anything here in a little while, let’s just recap some of the news in the past week.

Lou Piniella has been hired to manage the Chicago Cubs, signing a three year deal to try and win with a club that doesn’t have enough talent to win. Good luck with that, Lou.

The A’s fired Ken Macha amid criticism from a significant amount of the players. Multiple players made their complaints public, and the A’s didn’t really have much of a choice, considering the way the clubhouse was being portrayed at the end of the year. However, the ’06 A’s should be another data point for the idea that a manager’s motivational ability to get his players to perform better is highly overrated. By all accounts, a large segment of the team didn’t particularly like their manager, and they still overachieved, winning the division with a pretty mediocre roster. I’ve said it a few hundred times, and I’ll continue to say it; by and large, the effects a manager can have on his ballclub are overstated.

One more managerial note, before moving on: Mike Hargrove made some bad strategic moves during the season, but man, did anyone watch Jim Leyland in the ALCS? He not only started Neifi Perez in game two, but hit him second. In that same game, he used Alexis Gomez as his DH, a move that was made at least partly due to the decision to leave Chris Shelton off the playoff roster. Games 3 and 4, he stuck Craig Monroe and his .301 OBP in the #2 hole. In the final clinching game, with a tie score and a chance to end the series and give his team a significant amount of rest before the world series, he used Jamie Walker, Jason Grilli, and Wil Ledezma to get through the 8th and 9th innings. Because the Tigers played well and the A’s did not, Leyland is hailed as a genius, but strategically, he made some lousy moves that turned out for the best.

Juan Uribe, shortstop of the White Sox, has an arrest warrant issued for him in the Dominican Republic after he shot two men last week. I wonder if he was hanging out with Ugueth Urbina.

The Arizona Fall League and Hawaiian Winter Leagues are underway, for those who need a baseball fix. Michael Wilson is off to a good start down in Arizona, but as I say every year at this point in time, the stats mean less than nothing. Don’t get excited or despair over fall league performances. The stats don’t matter at all.

82 Comments