Future Forty 2.5
The Future Forty has been updated for September, and with it comes a minor yet significant change. At the suggestion of one our commenters during last month’s thread, the “Stock” column, which never really filled any useful role, has been replaced by a “Present” column, which shows how valuable that player could be expected to be in the major leagues today.
The goal of the Present column is to show just how close to contributing to the Mariners a player on the farm is, and perhaps help answer some of the questions for why players with high reward rankings aren’t yet considered projected regulars. As you’ll note looking through the list, the Mariners have a significant amount of talented players in the lower levels, but they’re almost all extremely raw, and each are going to need a lot of development before they can contribute to the big league team. Adding in a Present Value column will hopefully help give an idea for where a player is on the development path.
Please keep age in mind when looking at the Present Value column. Jose Lopez is tagged with a current value of 6, but for a 22-year-old, that’s pretty darn good. Despite the fact that he hasn’t hit a home run in about four years, Lopez shouldn’t be viewed as any kind of disappointment. He’s going through the normal growing pains of a young player adjusting to the major leagues.
Beyond the new column, we also welcome three new players at the expense of three well known names. Clint Nageotte, Jesse Foppert, and Scott Atchison bid adieu, and their removal from the Future Forty could be followed by a removal from the organization this winter. Replacing the three pitchers are first baseman Bryan LaHair, who we’ve talked about, and long term projects Alex Liddi and Gerardo Avila.
Liddi and Avila, along with current Future Forty members Carlos Peguero, Greg Halman, and Kuo-Hui Lo represent the next wave of young hitting talent the Mariners have in the lower levels of the organization. All these guys are just kids, many years from Seattle, but all have shown flashes of major league talent. If you’re looking for a lower level hitter to get excited about, you should probably pick one of these five.
However, these guys all have something else in common – they were pushed to levels they weren’t ready to handle, and full season ball pitchers exposed serious flaws in their hitting approach. Take a look at this little chart:
Halman (Everett): 116 AB, 3 BB, 32 K
Peguero (Everett): 93 AB, 2 BB, 34 K
Avila (Wisconsin): 88 AB, 1 BB, 22 K
Liddi (Wisconsin): 38 AB, 1 BB, 8 K
That’s 339 at-bats with a combined 7 walks and 96 strikeouts. Holy Reggie Abercrombie.
Now, it’s pretty easy to dismiss these numbers, since these kids are all very young. Avila is 20, Peguero is 19, Halman just turned 19, and Liddi just turned 18. These were aggressive promotions (shockingly) for kids who had not spent more than a few months playing baseball stateside, and while the results weren’t what you would hope for, it was also fairly predictable.
As we’ve discussed before, Bill Bavasi has instituted a very aggressive approach to pushing minor leaguers through the system, causing them to fail before they reach the major league level. It works in some instances, as the players respond to the hardships and become better for it, but it also runs the risk of slowing a player’s development by creating bad habits, especially in approach at the plate.
The Mariners currently have a line-up full of hitters who attack the ball and don’t wait for their pitch, and with their aggressive promotions, they’re breeding another group of swing-at-anything-hackers. At some point, the Mariners are going to have to admit that a disciplined approach at the plate has tangible value and start taking steps to instill that into their young players. Right now, the organization stresses aggressiveness at the plate, believing that patience will come as a player gains experience, but the team needs to be proactive in helping their players develop an approach at the plate that will lead to successful hitting.
As talented as Peguero, Halman, Liddi, and Avila might be, they’re not going to become major leauge players without a serious improvement in the way they approach hitting. As we saw with Wladimir Balentien this year, that can be much easier to say than to do. If the organization is not willing to help these kids learn how to identify when to swing and when to keep the bat on their shoulder when these kids are teenagers, they’re going to regenerate the offense we see now at the major league level, and that’s not in the best interests of the players or the team.
Somehow, someway, the Mariners are going to have to change their instructional techniques. They can’t keep relying on pure athletic talent to develop major league hitters. These kids need help, and they aren’t getting the instruction they need from the coaching staff.
Guardado to have TJ surgery
You’re shocked, I know. Says the Cincinnati Post…
Eddie Guardado is as dogged in his optimism as they come, but he knew something was wrong as soon as he saw Dr. Tim Kremchek’s face Wednesday morning.
About an hour earlier, Guardado had undergone an arthrogram on his sore left elbow. In an effort to flesh out any problems an earlier MRI didn’t detect, dye was injected into Guardado’s elbow and another picture taken.
This one revealed something the previous exam missed: Guardado had torn the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow, ending his season.
Game 139, Mariners at Tigers
Meche vs Rogers, 10:05 am.
Gil Meche pitching on 4 days rest:
72 2/3 IP, 71 H, 38 BB, 59 K, 4.95 ERA
Gil Meche pitching on 5 or more days rest:
80 IP, 77 H, 29 BB, 67 K, 3.94 ERA
Today, Gil Meche is pitching on normal rest.
And, line-up:
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Lopez, 2B
3. Betancourt, SS
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Perez, DH
7. Johjima, C
8. Beltre, 3B
9. Forfeited Spot, RF
Game 138, Mariners at Tigers
Bonderman vs Woods, 4:05 pm.
Jeremy Bonderman has two knockout pitches, throws a fastball with movement, and has harnessed his command this year while turning into one of the elite pitchers in the game. His reputation hasn’t yet caught up with his abilities, but he’s easily capable of winning the Cy Young award next year. There are basically no flaws in his game.
Jake Woods, on the other, is pretty lousy.
And then, there’s the line-up:
1. Ichiro, CF
2. Snelling, RF (/end normalcy)
3. Betancourt, SS – No, I’m not kidding.
4. Ibanez, LF
5. Sexson, 1B
6. Broussard, DH
7. Johjima, C
8. Beltre, 3B
9. Lopez, 2B
Adrian Beltre is, apparently, getting punished for his ridiculously awful approach at the plate yesterday where he was even swinging at the throws back to the mound from the catcher. It was ugly to watch, but lets be real, he had about 40 of those games in April and May. And really, hitting Betancourt third, I mean, I don’t know what to say.
M’s to add eight
From SportingNews.com, and elsewhere I’m sure (it’s just an AP wire story)…
OF Adam Jones
IF Greg Dobbs
RHP Francisco Cruceta
LHP Cesar Jimenez
OF TJ Bohn
IF Oswaldo Navarro
RHP Travis Chick
LHP Ryan Feierabend
All but Chick and Feierabend, who are at San Antonio, are at Tacoma.
Game 137, Mariners at Tigers
Washburn vs Robertson, 10:05 am.
An afternoon game on Labor Day that almost no one in Seattle will get to see, since there is no local TV coverage. It will be on MLB.tv, however.
Robertson is a lefty, which means we probably get the crappy line-up, but please, Grover, just let Doyle play, eh? He can hit lefties, and he’s the best thing going for the team right now. Stop the “it’s not a platoon” platooning of every left-hander not named Ibanez, okay?
Edit: Just as expected – Ballgame in right field, Doyle on the bench. Meanwhile, Ibanez and his .287 on base percentage vs lefties is hitting cleanup. Mike Hargrove deserves to manage a major league baseball club about as much I deserve to be the crown prince of Saudi Arabia.
Sigh
“I’m a power pitcher, so I have to throw my fastball as my out pitch,” Hernandez said.
Whoever convinced Felix this is true should be beaten with wet noodles.
Game 136, Mariners at Devil Rays
Hernandez vs Stokes, 10:15 am
Because it worked last time, Feliz Dia de Felix!
Brian Stokes makes his major league debut. He’s not a prospect – he turns 27 on Thursday and is your generic Triple-A starter. Of course, Triple-A starters have had boatloads of success against the M’s this year, so who knows.
Game Score is a Bill James gimmick stat created to give an overview of how effective a pitcher was on a particular day, and it actually works pretty well. Felix has pitched four games this year where his game score was over 70. Two of those were against Anaheim, and the other two were against Tampa Bay. Felix’s four best games of the season have come against two of the least patient teams in the American League. That’s not a coincidence. Teams that don’t make Felix work and chase pitches out of the zone neutralize his biggest weakness – command – and play right into his hands. There’s a real good chance we see Good Felix again today simply because we’re playing Tampa Bay.
Game 135, Mariners at Devil Rays
Baek vs Howell, 4:05 pm.
J.P. Howell is a command lefty with average stuff who mixes up his pitches. He’s the kind of guy the M’s just can’t hit. Expect another low scoring performance from the offense, as Howell befuddles them with change-ups early in the count. Also, since this begins a three game stretch against LHP’s, don’t expect to see much in the way of Doyle until Tuesday.
Game 134, Mariners at Devil Rays
Meche vs Shields, 4:05 pm.
Gil Meche was legitimately terrible in August, posting a 6.87 ERA that was completely earned. He couldn’t throw strikes, didn’t miss bats, and averaged just over four innings per start. At this point, the M’s have to hope that Meche finishes the year strong enough to be classified as a Type B free agent, which would enable them to receive a relatively high draft choice (as high as #16) when he signs some ridiculous contract with another ballclub this winter. Personally, I’m just thrilled there’s only a month left in the Gil Meche as Mariner Pitcher era.
Also, Ben Broussard, it’s time for a 4-5, 2 HR evening. Benuardo hasn’t exactly been hitting well since coming over from Cleveland, and we’re tired of having our DH’s hit like pitchers.