Random Notes
Lots of minor points to make today, so let’s go to the notes format.
1. ESPN has fired Harold Reynolds, almost certainly for something not pertaining to his performance on the job. I’d be stunned if the M’s don’t do some checking on this and, if they’re satisfied that it wasn’t a huge deal, offered him a job. It’s very easy to imagine him broadcasting Mariner games later this year and in the future. Honestly, anything that isn’t Dave Henderson is a huge upgrade.
2. Tangotiger, one of the smartest baseball minds out there, has done a quick-and-dirty analysis on playoff odds if a team’s current winning% didn’t match their actual true talent level. BP’s playoff odds report and coolstandings.com both use past data to project the team’s odds of making the playoffs, but run into problems if a team’s past performance isn’t a perfect estimate of how they’ll play going forward. With the M’s almost certain to replace the giant sucking hole of Carl Everett before the end of the month and replace him with a real hitter, it’s very easy to say that the M’s will be a better team than their winning percentage to date would project. Here’s a summary of Tango’s point:
As I’ve shown, to have an even shot at a team that is leading the division, and you are in the bottom, and you are down by 3 wins, you simply need a team to be a true +.050 wins better than the leading team.
With the uncertainty level existing in all forecasts, you can make such a plausible assertion (every now and then).
3. Rafael Soriano’s shoulder is still bothering him, and he won’t be available tonight. The disabled list is a real possibility. The next arm up from the farm is almost certainly going to be LHP Eric O’Flaherty, who is pitching extremely well for Double-A San Antonio. He doesn’t have the same stuff that Mark Lowe does, but he throws 90-93 from the left side with a solid breaking ball and has shown both extreme groundball dominance and the ability to miss bats. If and when O’Flaherty comes up, he could easily stick for the rest of the year. It’s not improbable to think that this team’s bullpen in September will go something like Putz-Soriano-Sherrill-Lowe-O’Flaherty-Woods-Mateo, with Julio finally being relegated to the mopup duty he deserves.
4. That Lopez-Beltre scuffle I mentioned in the game thread has been uploaded online so you
can see for yourself and decide whether this was playfighting or an actual disagreement of sorts. Thanks to Jeff Sullivan for getting this up. If you’re not reading his Lookout Landing blog, you’re missing out, big time.
5. Despite any rumors you may hear, Gil Meche isn’t close to being traded. If the M’s deal him (which gets less likely with every win), it won’t be til this weekend, when they’ve had a full opportunity to evaluate their chances of making a run this year. And the talent they’re asking for in return, anyways, is likely to preclude a deal. At this point, I think Meche ends the season as a Mariner.
6. Somewhat related, as of today, the M’s are buyers, not sellers. That could change over the next week, but don’t be surprised if the M’s go trolling for another Eduardo Perez type move in the next few days. David Dellucci would make all kinds of sense right now.
Game 99, Blue Jays at Mariners
7:05. Joel Pineiro v Casey Janssen. Getting either pitcher’s name wrong in the thread gets you a 24-hour ban, because it’s Monday.
This lineup brought to you by those dumb split-ended sparkplugs:
RF-L Ichiro!
2B-R Willie “The Ignitor” Blooooooooomquist
3B-R Beltre
LF-L Ibanez
1B-R Sexson
DH-0 Everett
C-R Johjima
SS-R Betancourt
CF-R Jones
Fun fact of the day!
2006, the post-collapse switch-hitting Carl Everett versus righties: .241/.309/.388 (232 AB)
2003-5, right-handed platoon player Eddie Perez versus righties: .239/.303/.351 (188 AB)
Fun with numbers
At some point, I plan on doing a long post on Adrian Beltre. I don’t have time for it right now, so instead, I’m just going to present a series of numbers. You draw your own conclusions.
Monthly breakdowns:
April: .189/.284/.233, 11% BB, 23% K, .250 BABIP, 21% LD, 44% GB, 31% FB, 4% IF
May: .264/.302/.355, 4% BB, 18% K, .326 BABIP, 19% LD, 41% GB, 35% FB, 5% IF
June: .324/.387/.611, 8% BB, 18% K, .417 BABIP, 22% LD, 31% GB, 46% FB, 1% IF
July: .264/.329/.444, 10% BB, 19% K, .333 BABIP, 16% LD, 44% GB, 33% FB, 7% IF
Home/Road Splits:
Home: .241/.299/.354, 7% BB, 17% K, 17% LD, 44% GB, 35% FB, 4% IF
Road: .286/.356/.481, 9% BB, 22% K, 23% LD, 35% GB, 39% FB, 4% IF
Last 9 games (vs Toronto, New York, and Boston):
.341/.400/.610, 10% BB, 20% K, .438 BABIP, 19% LD, 33% GB, 36% FB, 11% IF
Since May 1st:
.286/.341/.472, .361 BABIP, 7% BB, 18% K, 20% LD, 38% GB, 38% FB, 4% IF
That’s 290 at-bats, by the way.
2004:
.334/.388/.629, 8% BB, 14% K, .328 BABIP, 18% LD, 41% GB, 35% FB, 6% IF
XBH/FB, by year:
HR/FB, 2002 – 10%, 2B+3B/FB, 2002 – 15%, XBH/FB, 2002 – 25%
HR/FB, 2003 – 13%, 2B+3B/FB, 2003 – 19%, XBH/FB, 2003 – 32%
HR/FB, 2004 – 23%, 2B+3B/FB, 2004 – 15%, XBH/FB, 2004 – 38%
HR/FB, 2005 – 11%, 2B+3B/FB, 2005 – 21%, XBH/FB, 2005 – 32%
HR/FB, 2006 – 6%, 2B+3B/FB, 2006 – 26%, XBH/FB, 2006 – 32%
Okay, I lied – a little commentary. No matter what you think of Adrian Beltre, there’s absolutely no way that 6% HR/FB number is going to continue. That’s Scott Podsednik/David Eckstein territory. As you can clearly see, his overall rate of extra base hits per fly ball isn’t any different than it was in ’03 or ’05, but the distribution of those hits is skewed heavily towards doubles and triples this year. This isn’t a perfect metric (it’s essentially a proxy since I don’t have play-by-play data), but it makes a pretty obvious point – Beltre is just missing home runs this year. Both of today’s balls are out of any other park in the majors, except maybe Comerica.
I’m not saying Adrian Beltre’s going to hit like this all year – a recurrance of April is still a real possibility. I am saying that people who tell you that he’s hopeless and has no chance of improving don’t know what they’re talking about.
Game 98, Red Sox at Mariners
Jon Lester vs Jarrod Washburn.
Lester’s local and has a good arm, but he’s not throwing strikes regularly since showing up in the majors, so the M’s would do well to work the count and get to the Sox bullpen early.
No Carl Everett today – huzzah!
Game 97, Red Sox at Mariners
Kason Gabbard, major league debut, vs Felix Hernandez
Gabbard’s a 24-year-old lefty who was okay at Double-A Portland, got promoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, and saw his ERA rise due a case of homerunitis. He’s your classic minor league lefty – throws in the 80’s, doesn’t miss bats, tries to survive by throwing strikes, which he hadn’t really done until this year. He’s their version of Bobby Livingston, just not quite as good.
M’s line-up:
Ichiro, RF
Bloomquist, 2B
Beltre, 3B
Sexson, 1B
Perez, DH
Everett, LF
Johjima, C
Betancourt, SS
Jones, CF
Giving Raul a day off against a lefty isn’t a bad idea – the problem is that the Mariners roster is constructed so poorly, thanks to Hargrove’s insistance on a 12 man pitching staff, that the team has no capable right-handed hitting outfielder on the roster, so Carl Everett starts in left field.
Everett’s terrible defensively and is hitting .164/.243/.269 against southpaws this year. The M’s, honestly, would be just as well off not using a DH and letting Eduardo Perez play left field. I’m not kidding. Felix could hit .164/.243/.269 against lefties.
And, the kicker, of course, is that Everett is still hitting 6th. Everyone knows Everett can’t hit lefties – Bavasi acquired Perez strictly so that Everett wouldn’t have to play against them. Meanwhile, the team has him hitting in front of Johjima and Betancourt. That’s insane.
And, of course, Willie hitting second.
Mike Hargrove is not an idiot. I’m sure he’s a reasonable man. But he’s terrible at assembling line-ups (as well as pretty much every other strategical task expected of a manager). For your enjoyment, this back-and-forth is copied from last night’s game thread:
James T said:
July 21st, 2006 at 10:25 pm e
I used to be impressed by how well he would deploy the Orioles’ bullpen to hold leads the few times they got ahead of the Sox in the years when Hargrove was the O’s manager.
JMHawkins said:
July 21st, 2006 at 10:48 pm e
#355: I think the problem is Grover’s still calling for the same guys from his old Orioles clubs. Jim Slaton’s down in the bullpen trying to match names as best he can.
No out, two on, Bullpen phone rings
Hargrove (over phone): “Get Calvin Maduro warmed up!â€Â
Slaton (muttering): “Maduro? We ain’t got no Maduro. Hey, Mateo, get warm!â€Â
A walk, a single, and a HR later, Mateo enters the game.
Two walks and a HR later, the bullpen phone rings again
Hargrove: “I need Jorge Julio!â€Â
Slaton: “Julio’s already in the game.â€Â
Hargrove: “What? Fine, get Yorkis Perez warm.â€Â
Slaton: “Perez? You pinch hit him last inning for Jones.â€Â
Hargrove: “I did? What about Sean Douglass?â€Â
Slaton (mutters): “We ain’t got no Douglass. You mean Sean Green?
Hargrove: Groom? No, I don’t want Buddy Groom, he’s a lefty. Who else we got left out there?â€Â
Slaton: “J.J. Putz, he’s rested.â€Â
Hargrove: “B.J. Ryan? No, I told you, I don’t want a Lefty. Let’s leave Jorge in the game.â€Â
Slaton: “Fine. Hey Fruto, get some more coffee. Gonna be a long night.â€Â
Game 96, Red Sox at Mariners
Jamie Moyer vs Kyle Snyder, 7:05 pm
Kyle Snyder today, Kason Gabbard tomorrow, and Jon Lester on Sunday – not exactly what you expect when the Boston Red Sox roll into town. Snyder was claimed off waivers from the KC Royals earlier this year, so that should tell you something right there. He’s given up 8 runs in 9 2/3 innings since joining the Red Sox, but he does have a 1/12 BB/K, so there’s at least a reason to think they might see something in him.
Also, Jose Lopez isn’t with the team – he’ll be back Sunday. Personal matter. You know what that means – a weekend of ignition with Willie Ballgame. Let’s just pray he’s not hitting second – of course he is.
Classic Hargrove Line-Up for this one. Yes, Everett’s still here and hitting 6th. No, there’s still not a single legitimate reason why.
Buyers Or Sellers – Why Choose?
The non-waiver trading deadline is now 10 days away. Teams have a week and a half to reshape their rosters, either for the stretch run, or for next year and beyond. The trading deadline is an annual exercise in hype with a lackluster payoff, as I don’t remember the last time the deadline came and went when we had a flurry of deals that could actually be classified as exciting.
The local angle, of course, is that the Mariners have 10 days to decide whether to be buyers or sellers. They’re only 5 games out of first place in a division where no one looks particularly good, and despite the recent losing road trip, they played highly competitive baseball with two of the better teams in the American League. Fans have set through several miserable seasons, and the team is wary of throwing in the towel on what still has the potential to be an exciting September that might just draw them back to Safeco Field.
The counter argument is pretty obvious, however. While the team is still not out of the race, they’re still in last place, trailing three teams, and are just 4-10 in July. They also have the toughest remaining schedule of any AL West team, playing Boston, Cleveland, and Toronto before they have to decide what to do with the roster. Considering the opponents, its unlikely the team goes on a 8-1 or 7-2 run that would catapult them right back into the thick of things, so the odds are that this team is sitting in a similar or worse position when the deadline rolls around.
Thus, Bill Bavasi and company are looking at having to decide to add players to a team in last place or remove players from a team within striking distance of a division title. The big question in the front office the next 10 days will be “buyers or sellers?”
In my opinion, this is a great chance for the Mariners to show some creativity for the first team in, well, ever, and steal a page from Billy Beane’s playbook. Don’t choose – be both buyers and sellers.
The team is too close to the division title to waive the white flag, and for all our opinions on the relative strengths of the teams in the division, absolutely anything can happen in a two month stretch of baseball. However, the team also has a strong core to build around, and the last thing the organization needs to be doing is to remove players from the roster who could be substantial parts of the ballclub in 2007. So, instead of taking the normal route of either unloading players or picking up marginal improvements at the cost of young talent, I suggest that the Mariners spend the next ten days rebuilding the guys around the core by both shipping out current players from the roster and bringing in new faces to help contribute right away.
I’d define the core group of players, who I’m not interested in moving, as Felix, Ichiro, Lopez, Betancourt, Johjima, Jones, Clement, Putz, Soriano, and Lowe. I also am willing to accept the fact that the Mariners will never trade Raul Ibanez, so he’s included in the core by default. He’s just not getting moved while the current management structure is in place.
That means I’m willing to move significant talent off the major league roster. Gil Meche, George Sherrill, Jeremy Reed, Adrian Beltre, and Richie Sexson will all draw interest from different ballclubs. However, the goal is not to simply unload these guys (well, not all of them, anyways), but to use their value (and some of the non-essentially minor league guys) to acquire players who fit the team’s needs down the stretch and next season. Easier said than done? Probably. It would take an epic series of moves and a willingness to change up a roster in mid-season, but in the end, I think the team could be better both now and going forward, if they’re willing to take a few chances. And yes, this is almost all 100% speculation. I’ve heard some backdoor rumblings about potential matches for some of our players, but don’t take any of this as legitimate possibilities.
Step 1: Send Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, and Julio Mateo to San Diego for Ryan Klesko and Dave Roberts.
Step 2: Send Richie Sexson to San Francisco for Todd Linden and Steve Finley.
Step 3: Send Gil Meche and George Sherrill to the Atlanta Braves for Wilson Betemit
Step 4: Send Wladimir Balentien, Yung-Chi Chen, and Cesar Jimenez to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Sean Casey and Kip Wells
This would leave the M’s with the following line-up for the rest of 2006:
1. Ichiro, RF
2. Lopez, 2B
3. Ibanez, LF/DH
4. Betemit, 3B
5. Casey, 1B
6. Johjima, C
7. Snelling, LF/DH
8. Betancourt, SS
9. Roberts, CF
The bench would consist of Finley, Bloomquist, Perez, Quiroz, and Linden holding the job until Klesko gets healthy. Everett would be released, and Rivera and Jones would be returned to the minors.
The rotation would be Felix-Moyer-Washburn-Wells-Pineiro. The bullpen would be Putz-Soriano-Lowe-Cruceta-Fruto-Woods, and if Cruceta pitched well (read: threw strikes) out of the pen, he’d take Pineiro’s spot in the rotation.
This team isn’t significantly better than what the M’s are putting on the field right now. You could argue that they’re a little bit worse. Casey/Betemit are an improvement over what we’ve gotten from Sexson/Beltre, but the dropoff from Meche to Kip Wells is pretty staggering. The pitching is certainly worse, and Hargrove would hate a bullpen with only one lefty, but the offense would be significantly improved. Overall, I think the new roster would be about as competitive, if different in character, than the current roster.
So why make the moves? Financial freedom. At the end of the season, you’d lose the contracts of Sean Casey ($9 million), Steve Finley ($8 million), and Ryan Klesko ($10.5 million), who you essentially swapped out Beltre and Sexson’s deals for. That’s $27 million you wouldn’t have had available to play with had you kept the status quo. $27 million buys a lot of talent.
In the process, you’ve acquired a guy who you think can be your third baseman for the next several years and a stop-gap center fielder to allow Adam Jones to return to Tacoma.
Looking ahead to ’07, you’d have a complete offense minus first base, which is the easiest position in baseball to find a competant role player. Depending on what you wanted to do with Reed/Jones in center, you could try to retain Roberts or pick up another veteran CF to hold the job a bit longer, but that shouldn’t cost much money.
You’d have a rotation of Felix-Washburn-three holes, and a bullpen that lacked a lefty setup guy. But once you remove the salaries of Moyer, Everett, Pineiro, and Wells, in addition to the $27 million you saved by letting Klesko, Finley, and Casey walk, you’re staring at about $40-$45 million in available cash to fill out the pitching staff.
$40 to $45 million. I’m pretty sure the M’s could find three starting pitchers, a first baseman, and a lefty setup guy for $40 million.
It would take a bold series of moves to reshape the roster that dramatically, but this team is capable of making transactions that would both avoid waiving the white flag in 2006 and still allowing them to improve their chances of contending in 2007 and beyond.
Game Thread, Las Vegas at Tacoma
The Las Vegas 51s bring their prospect-a-thon to Tacoma to face suddenly effective Cha Baek. Baek has a 3.02 ERA, but he’s basically become the Triple-A version of Jamie Moyer at this point – crafty enough to let guys get themselves out through very little skill of his own. Beats last year’s Cha Baek, though.
But seriously, this Las Vegas line-up is crazy: James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andy LaRoche, and Joel Guzman are all future major leaguers, and Delwyn Young might be. Should be a fun test for Baek.
As always, you can catch the greatness of commentary that is Mike Curto streaming live online.
AL West Trade Value
Since everyone enjoyed the concept last offseason, and last week’s Mariner spinoff, I’ve decided to do another in the series of Trade Value posts. This time, it’s the AL West Trade Value. For the whole rules, see version 1.0 from last winter.
Essentially, the goal is to look at which teams are setup best for the future in our division – stopping at 50 players is pretty arbitrary, and so don’t take this as a gospel, but it does paint a pretty good picture of who has valuable talent hanging around and who does not. Ignoring the whole payroll/front office ability issue, and just based on current talent in the organization, things look good in Seattle and Anaheim, and not quite as hot in Oakland or Texas. But I’d argue that Oakland and Texas have the better management teams in place, so let’s not feel to sorry for them.
Also, I took a slightly different approach to assessing value on this list than I did with last week’s Mariner-only list, so the order won’t match exactly. This list leans a bit more towards players who provide a true competitive advantage in the division, whereas the Mariner-centric list was geared more towards filling out our roster going forward.
Anyways, on to the list, and apologies if the formatting doesn’t work perfectly, but I’ve never mastered the pre tags.
1 Felix Hernandez SEA
2 John Lackey LAA
3 Mark Teixeira TEX
4 Dan Haren OAK
5 Howie Kendrick LAA
6 Vladimir Guerrero LAA
7 Ichiro Suzuki SEA
8 Ervin Santana LAA
9 Jose Lopez SEA
10 Rich Harden OAK
11 Brandon Wood LAA
12 Jered Weaver LAA
13 Nick Swisher OAK
14 Rafael Soriano SEA
15 Barry Zito OAK
16 Ian Kinsler TEX
17 Michael Young TEX
18 Huston Street OAK
19 F. Rodriguez LAA
20 Adam Jones SEA
21 Bobby Crosby OAK
22 Hank Blalock TEX
23 Y. Betancourt SEA
24 Erick Aybar LAA
25 Mike Napoli LAA
26 J.J. Putz SEA
27 Eric Hurley TEX
28 Juan Rivera LAA
29 Eric Chavez OAK
30 Jeff Clement SEA
31 John Danks TEX
32 Nick Adenhart LAA
33 Travis Buck OAK
34 Vicente Padilla TEX
35 Gil Meche SEA
36 Thomas Diamond TEX
37 Edison Volquez TEX
38 Kenji Johjima SEA
39 Casey Kotchman LAA
40 Dan Johnson OAK
41 J. Duchscherer OAK
42 Daric Barton OAK
43 Joe Blanton OAK
44 Raul Ibanez SEA
45 Kevin Millwood TEX
46 Ryan Feierabend SEA
47 Mark Lowe SEA
48 Orlando Cabrera LAA
49 Mark DeRosa TEX
50 Jeff Mathis LAA
Some notes from the list:
The Angels have all kinds of talent. While they have 14 guys on the list, 10 of those are in the top 28, and 6 of those are in the top 13. They have 4 of the top 8 guys on the list. And I’d imagine most Angel fans think I’m underselling Brandon Wood. The Angels probably have the best core to build a roster around in the major leagues.
The A’s are in trouble. They have 12 guys on the list, but 4 of those are in the 40-50 range, and 2 of their top 4 (Harden and Zito) are huge question marks for the future. It’s not easy to look at the A’s current talent base and see how they’re going to contend going forward, but Billy Beane cures a lot of ills. If the A’s keep winning for the rest of the decade, it will be his greatest triumph yet.
The Rangers might be in worse shape than the A’s. Only three guys in the top 20, and nearly half the guys on their list are young pitchers with no major league track record. Attrition could thin their talent base out pretty quickly. The Rangers are basically counting on their four young arms to develop – if even two of them fail to make any impact in the majors, it spells trouble for Texas.
The M’s are sitting in a pretty nice spot. They’ve got significant young, cheap talent on the roster, plus some guys performing well in the majors at salaries far below market value. Once the next wave of guys from Tacoma reach the majors, there won’t be much additional help from the farm system coming for a couple of years, but the team has a strong enough talent base to build around. Their problem continues to be choosing the correct role players to fill out the roster, and the M’s clearly have the worst management team in the division.
Also, the bottom of the list could be populated by any number of guys. There are a whole host of guys that you could make a case for over Mathis and I’d basically shurg my shoulders and say “yea”. Laird, Mench, Wilkerson, Snelling, Matthews, Choo, Figgins, and Morales could all have a case to one degree or another. So try not to get too caught up in over who got snubbed – once you get down that far on the list, there’s a lot of guys of comparable value. It’s the guys at the top who are going to decide who is in charge of this division for the next few years.
Right now, the edge goes to Anaheim. Or Los Angeles. Whatever.
On the possibility of a Hillenbrand pick-up
The Blue Jays tossed Shea Hillenbrand aside after he tussled with the front office (it’s a weird story). I’ve already seen suggestions the M’s should pick him up since he’s free.
There are a couple things Shea can help a team with. He’s a right-handed hitter who’s about average for average and OBP, and he’s got a little more power than an average hitter. For a corner infielder, though, that’s not particularly good. It is, obviously, better than we’re getting out of our corners. He’s historically hit left-handers a lot harder than right-handers.
If the M’s picked him up, you’d play him at DH against righties and spot him at 1B/3B.
There’s a big problem with that, though: if they were going to use someone to spot at the corners, they’d be using Dobbs, but they’re not, as they haven’t used Petagine or Perez either. Someone other than Sexson or Beltre has started a game at a corner five times this year.
And if they’re looking for someone to DH against righties, Dobbs could outhit Everett at this stage and, as we’ve suggested elsewhere, there are various other ways you can andjust the lineup so Everett sits. For the time being, it appears that Hargrove is set on using Everett until his toy’s taken away from him, and for whatever reason, the team hasn’t taken the toy yet.
So then you have to assume the M’s are willing to accept another clubhouse guy to make a matched pair with C-Rex, and if you thought Carl was trouble when he thought he was being screwed with before, well… look out, because now the team would have one player complaining every time a lineup card didn’t have their name in it. If that means Hargrove starts trying to weasel them both in, that’s no good.
Hillenbrand wouldn’t solve any problem the Mariners have, and might make them worse. If he got picked up, they’d likely be making more moves than just offering him a deal.