Predicted Moves
Yesterday, I did an overview of how I would attempt to reshape the roster if I ran the M’s. This post deals with what I actually think they are going to do. Some of these guesses are based on things I’ve heard through the grapevine, while others are just hunches. Don’t take everything written here as inside information. Don’t freak out if you hate what you read. When I did this last year, I got most of it wrong. I nailed the Beltre thing, but also had them trading Randy Winn, signing Matt Clement, and trading for Shea Hillenbrand. So, your mileage on how useful this post is may vary. But at least it’s interesting.
Onward ho.
Expected Free Agent Signings
Matt Morris: 4 years, $30 million
Kenji Jojima: 2 years, $10 million
Jamie Moyer: 1 year, $4 million
Jeromy Burnitz: 1 year, $4 million
Expected Trades
Gil Meche and Matt Thornton to New York for Carl Pavano
Julio Mateo to Florida for Ron Villone
That would leave the Mariners with a roster that looked something like this:
C Jojima
C Torrealba
1B Sexson
2B Lopez
2B Bloomquist
SS Betancourt
3B Beltre
LF Burnitz
LF Morse
CF Reed
RF Ichiro
DH Ibanez
DH DobbsSP1 Morris
SP2 Felix
SP3 Pavano
SP4 Pineiro
SP5 MoyerCL Guardado
Setup Soriano
Setup Sherrill
Relief Putz
Relief Villone
Relief Atchison
Long Harris
Hargrove gets his 12 man pitching staff, including two new name pieces for the rotation. The M’s interest in Pavano has been no secret. They think he’s perfect for Safeco Field, and they attribute most of his struggles in 2005 to the pressures of pitching in New York. According to the M’s, Pavano took less money than they offered him to sign with NY, and they aren’t likely to balk at assuming the rest of his contract.
Morris fits the veteran with a long history of success that they are looking for. A couple of years ago, the guy was one of the elite pitchers in the game. Due to a poor second half, a lot of teams, including the Cardinals, are shying away from him, so the M’s will likely view him as a bargain considering what other pitchers will get in this market.
Burnitz provides home run power from the left side, and as a heavy pull hitter who can exploit the right field corner, his swing is what the M’s are looking for. At 36, though, he’s a shell of what he was, and at this point, he’s not much of an asset as an everyday player.
Villone’s ERA in Florida was disastrous, but he actually pitched just fine. The Marlins weren’t impressed, though, and he’ll likely be available. Mateo is younger, cheaper, and will still be under their control for several years. The M’s have never really liked Mateo, as his inability to hold runners has relegated him to mop up duty, and the team would jump at the chance to have Villone back.
Jojima, we’ve talked about.
So, that’s what I expect the M’s to do. How do I feel about it?
Blah. I wasn’t a fan of Pavano last year, and I’m still not. Morris is on my guys-to-avoid list. Burnitz isn’t a big asset. I support the Jojima acquisition, but the rest of it doesn’t get me too excited. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.
Public cost of Safeco Field
In an article today at Baseball Prospectus, Neil deMause writes about a May article in “The Journal of Sports Economics” by Judith Long (abstract, reading the article itself online costs $35*), in which she attempts to calculate the actual cost to the public of a stadium, which includes tax breaks (including property tax breaks), land value, infrastructure (building a new I-90 on-ramp next to the park (which I think is not included in this number).
Relevant to Mariner fans: public cost of Safeco Field stands at $553 million. This is a huge increase from the standard accounting (which is that the stadium cost $500m+, of which the public only picked up ~$400m).
Update! Reader Sal informed me that Long’s posted a lot of good stuff on her faculty website for your perusal. Thanks, Sal (and Judith Long for posting).**
* this is why, even though the Journal would seem to have a ton of stuff I should read and be up on, I don’t subscribe.
** sometimes I wish I’d gone to a really good school instead of the 50th-best university in the country***
*** Go Huskies!
Winter Meetings start
Jon Paul Morosi has two stories in successive issues of the P-I about the winter meetings, which get underway this week.
The Mariners have made initial inquiries on pitchers A.J. Burnett and Matt Morris, and outfielder Brian Giles, among other high-profile free agents. But this week is unlikely to include many notable signings, if any, since teams are unable to discuss contract terms until Friday.
Matt Morris? Danger!
Since (as the blockquote explains) teams can’t offer contracts to free agents until later this week, it’s trade speculation that occupies most of journalists’ time. Rumored targets include big-ticket players Carl Pavano, Carlos Delgado and Jim Thome.
Dave has said that he wouldn’t be surprised to see Pavano trade discussion between the M’s and Yankees, and it looks like that may be borne out. Regarding Pavano:
The Yankees have long been fond of Seattle starters Gil Meche and Joel Pineiro. Still, even that might not be enough to solidify speculation into a deal. “It makes sense,” one Yankees official said of the scenario, “but I don’t see it happening.”
That’s a good thing. Thirty million for three years of Carl Pavano is not something the Mariners need. Ditto for Thome: the only good thing about pursuing him would be the halt to the “let’s go get Ryan Howard” sentiment in the comments.
Regarding Delgado, I’m more circumspect. That’s a lot of money, he’s not a young player, and it would create certain lineup quandaries — but he can also really hit, is left-handed and would add badly needed power to the lineup. On balance, I don’t think I’d go after him myself, but I can see the thinking behind it.
Rookies of the Year announced
No Felix, of course.
Huston Street for the AL, and Ryan Howard for the NL (man, if only we’d traded for that guy). Read more
Dave’s Offseason Plan
The last two years, I’ve presented my offseason plan. After the 2003 season, the organization went as far away from my suggestions as humanly possible, and the team promptly went in the tank. Realizing the error of their ways, they actually made several of the moves I suggested after last offseason, and the team returned to championship form immediately. What? They still sucked? Well, that’s not my fault. I blame Canada.
So, with my track record firmly established, I now present to you the Third Annual Offseason Dave’s Plan. This is what I would attempt to do if the team decided to give me reign of the organization. The numbers after the players are their projected 2006 salaries in millions. This is actual 2006 payout, not annual average value of the contract. Obviously, on free agents, I had to guesstime how much it would cost to sign the player. Hopefully, I was somewhere in the ballpark. Onward ho.
Starting C Jojima 3.50
Backup C Torrealba 1.00Starting 1B Sexson 11.50
Backup 1B Helms 2.00Starting 2B Lopez 0.32
Backup 2B Bloomquist 0.75Starting SS Betancourt 0.35
Starting 3B Beltre 11.50
Starting LF J. Jones 5.00
Backup LF Bohn 0.32Starting CF Reed 0.32
Starting RF Ichiro 11.50
Backup RF Morse 0.32Starting DH Ibanez 4.25
Offense 49.11
#1 Starter Burnett 10.00
#2 Starter Felix 0.32
#3 Starter Loaiza 6.00
#4 Starter Moyer 3.00
#5 Starter Pineiro 6.30
#6 Starter Brown 2.00Closer Guardado 6.25
Setup Sherrill 0.32
Setup Soriano 0.32
Mid Relief Putz 0.50
Mid Relief Mateo 0.50
Long Relief Atchison 0.32Pitching 35.81
Scott Spiezio 3.35
Pokey’s Buyout 0.30
Wiki’s Buyout 0.25
Shiggy’s Buyout 0.33Sunk Costs 4.23
Total Commitments 89.15
Free Agent Signings
A.J. Burnett: 4 years, $46 million
Esteban Loaiza: 3 years, $18 million
Jacque Jones: 2 years, $10 million
Kenji Jojima: 2 years, $7 million
Jamie Moyer: 1 year, $3 million, incentives could push total value to $5 million
Kevin Brown: 1 year, $2 million, incentives could push total value to $5 million
Wes Helms: 1 year, $2 million
At $89 million on actual payroll, this is likely a little bit out of the M’s current budget. They’ve averaged about $85 million on actual payroll the past few seasons (they report a much higher number which includes numbers that no other team considers part of “payroll”). However, the team has consistently shown the ability to move payroll at the trade deadline, so if the team is not contending, it would not be a challenge to come in under budget. And, if the team is contending, well, then the extra outlay of a million here or there was well worth it, no?
We’ve discussed most of these moves in their own previous posts. For guys like Burnett, Jones, Jojima, and Brown, you should be well aware of why I support their acquisitions. A few quick notes on the others:
Esteban Loaiza, at worst, is an innings-eater in the middle of the rotation who can work deep into games without being terrible. At best, he’s one of the better starting pitchers in baseball. Consistency is a problem, and there’s no real way to know what you’re going to get with him, but the cost to acquire a player with such significant upside and limited downside, especially in a market that looks like its going to go insane, is too good to pass up. I think he’s this years Jon Lieber.
Wes Helms gives the team a reliable bat off the bench, the guy they think Greg Dobbs is but that he never will be. He hit .298/.356/.458 last year, which included a .300/.375/.506 mark against lefties. Since Jones will need to be platooned, Helms bat fits in nicely at DH against southpaws. He can play first or third and give them the pinch-hitting bat they’ve lacked the past several seasons.
T.J. Bohn is never going to be a full-time major league player, but the things that he does well right now will translate to the major league level immediately. He’s a strong defensive player with a great arm who can play any of the three outfield spots. He has good baserunning instincts and is deceptively fast, making him a stolen base threat as a pinch-runner. He has gap power and can drive the ball when he makes contact. He probably won’t be an asset as a hitter, but as a 5th outfielder, he’s better than Jamal Strong. If he continues to improve like he has, he could end up stealing some at-bats from Reed and Jones before the year is up.
So, there’s the plan. I’d estimate that this team would win somewhere between 85-95 games and contend for a playoff spot. These moves aren’t likely to happen, but this is what I would attempt to accomplish given a hypothetical situation where my opinions mattered.
Around the Papers
Times: The M’s hope AJ Burnett will bring his tour to Seattle.
PI: Moyer has many options. Also, the M’s wouldn’t allow teams to talk with Bavasi even if they asked pretty please with sugar on top.
News Tribune: Nothing since “M’s retain Guardado.”
Reds sold, what a stadium’s worth
Carl Linder, owner of the Reds, is going to sell them to a local group. News stories say the acquisition sets the value of the team at $270m.
Assume that’s true. In 2002, before the team moved into their new digs, they were worth $204m by Forbes estimates.
In 2004, having moved in, they were valued at $245m.
Even as the team flirted with year-to-year unprofitability, their value increased by about $70m in three years, with the only real difference in the franchise’s health being the new stadium. That’s a nice return.
Say what?
M’s pick up Guardado’s $6.25M option for next season. I’m floored. Better yet, Bavasi says they’ve discussed a contract extension to keep Eddie in Seattle after 2006. I’m double floored.
Mmm.. more potpurri
The M’s declined Hasegawa’s option (yayyyy), Reese’s option (you’re shocked, I know), and are still “in talks” with Guardado.
MLB.com reports they’re “negotiating a new deal with left-handed starter Jamie Moyer” in a passing tidbit, which is cool (home starter!).
In the front office, Lee Pelekoudas is now an Associate General Manager, whatever that means (the M’s got a lotta weird titles this year), and Jim Na moves up to Director, Baseball Administration.
Potpourri
Three more small items of note:
1. Corey Brock’s piece in the TNT about Japanese players with the potential to come to the majors this season goes well with John Hickey’s P-I story about Kenji Jojima. To regular readers of this blog, there’s not much new information, but these are fair summaries of where the Mariners are at as regards Jojima et. al.
2. Larry Stone’s story in the Seattle Times about Eddie Guardado informs us that the pranktacular closer and his agent are seeking a two-year deal from the club. If also affords us the opportunity to engage in a little language pedantry. Scroll down to number three if you have no patience for this.
If Guardado declines his option, he then becomes a free agent. But Guardado’s camp is considering jump-starting the process by filing right away for free agency on a conditional basis. That tact has been taken in the past by other players who have options.
This is a common error. It’s not tact, but tack. As Johnny Depp might say: nautical term. Tact is the quality you use to convince the drunken navigator to steer away from the oncoming storm; a tack is the course he sets to avoid the deluge itself.
3. Also from Stone:
Announcer Dave Niehaus is again under consideration for the Ford C. Frick Award, the top honor in baseball broadcasting.
The first component of the award is fan balloting that begins today online at www.baseballhalloffame.org, and continues throughout November. The top three fan vote-getters will be on the final 10-person ballot that will go to the Frick electorate. The winner will be announced Dec. 5.
You know what to do.