Game 88, Mariners at Angels
Fister vs. Weaver
Kyle Seager’s first game in an M’s uniform is a divisional clash against arguably the best pitcher in the American League. The M’s did beat Weaver back on May 18th behind a Jason Vargas shutout, but Weaver responded with a complete game shutout of his own on June 14th.
M’s line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Kennedy (1B)
4: Smoak (DH)
5: Ackley
6: Olivo
7: Seager (3B)
8: Gutierrez
9: Peguero
More on Seager
You’ve read Jay’s great piece on the move, but I wanted to chime in with my thoughts and discuss the strategy of the move in more detail.
First, Seager’s got a short, quick, level swing that he used to ping line drives around Cheney Stadium when I saw him. That’s great; I’m generally pro line-drive, but it actually makes it harder to know what to expect. He’s not going to hit for much power (the HR he hit at Cheney was a routine fly hit into a strong wind), but his eye should help him post an OBP well above that posted by the M’s left fielders, and easily above the incumbent at 3B, Chone Figgins. He struggled a bit against left-handers, just as Ackley did initially in AAA, but that almost sounds like nit-picking when he put up a .523/.571/.795 line against right-handers. The Angels start four righties in the upcoming series, by the way.
In some ways, this is an ideal situation for Seager. He’s playing in the same infield as his elementary school friend/rival, the guy he’s replacing is putting up one of the worst seasons in M’s history and is widely reviled by M’s fans, and he’s playing for an org that clearly doesn’t mind a 3B without HR power. On the other hand, he’s going to be making his debut in an absolutely crucial four-game series against a division rival at a time when the M’s are within 4 games of the division lead. The M’s clearly thought that playing a talented hitter in this series meant a lot more than playing a veteran hitter, and that’s a sentiment I’m sympathetic to. But let’s be clear: the M’s think the best chance they have to stay in a wide-open AL West race is to call up a 23 year old 2B who’s played two weeks in AAA, and a half-season in the high minors. I agree with their decision, but I don’t like what that says about this team.
Kyle Seager moved to 2B upon signing with the M’s, and he spent 2010 there for High Desert. This year, he played 2B for Jackson, then starting playing more 3B in Tacoma (as Jay mentioned). He played the position in college, so it’s not like he’ll forget which base to throw to, but he doesn’t have the arm strength of an Alex Liddi; David Bell may be a decent comp. In any event, the M’s aren’t turning to Seager for his glove, and Figgins has been so shaky defensively this year that it’s not at all clear that Seager will be a downgrade. Still, if you’ve been nervous about position switching, then this has to be something of a red flag. The M’s moved Figgins off of 3B, but he had much more professional experience at 2B than Seager has at 3B. He’s been very solid since his promotion to Tacoma, but we’re talking about six games and a smattering of chances.
In short, the M’s probably aren’t making this move because they’re smitten with the BABIP-driven video-game slash line Seager’s produced in Tacoma. They’re making the move because they’re desperate, and their offense is comically bad. So yes, Seager’s not terribly experienced at 3B (at least in professional ball), but they’re almost certainly right that he’ll be of more use than Figgins. I’m happy that the M’s system has options to help the ballclub beyond the consensus top 5 guys, but what does it say when a guy like Kyle Seager would hypothetically upgrade several positions in the M’s line-up? The player development group should be praised for Seager’s breakout, but what does it say that no one who started the year as a 3B could fill the role? I was impressed by Seager, and hope he has at least as much success as Dustin Ackley’s had in his first tour of MLB, but for every positive statement you can make about this specific move, you can make a negative one about this move’s context.
Welcome to the show, Kyle. Keep the M’s in the divisional race, would you?
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Kyle Seager is On the Way
This is happening a lot quicker than I expected, but reports are making the rounds that 3B/2B Kyle Seager has been selected from Tacoma and C Jose Yepez has been DFA’d. Yepez didn’t even get a game in with the M’s and was only around to be a third backstop with Olivo hurting. It’s Seager that everyone is paying attention to, and rightly so.
Since he was promoted to Tacoma (where he’s been hitting .455/.500/.673), he’s seen six games at third, one at short, and five at second. That’s an increase in time at the hot corner from what we saw back when he was with Jackson, where he only spent three of sixty-six games there. Still, one should not be too concerned about him defensively. He spent his final year at UNC playing third, and has answered a lot of questions about his range and whether or not he could handle the middle infield during the the past couple of seasons. The glovework should be no issue for him, and the arm, while not a cannon or anything, is not something that’s going to hinder him as he moves to the left side of the infield. Barring any weird yips, he’ll be able to make the plays over there.
As for what to expect from him with the bat, I’d say patience, line drives, and mostly doubles power. When people were asking me about him in the offseason, I came up with an interesting comkp for him which a lot of people will hate. Up until this season, you can compare Seager’s line by age to that of Chone Figgins and see some similarities as they were coming up when you adjust for park. The difference there was that Seager would hit more doubles and some would leave the park entirely, whereas Figgins game was more about stealing bases and stretching the double into a triple [I refer, of course, to the good annoying Figgins who played for the Angels as opposed to the bad annoying Figgins that has played for the Mariners]. Of course, this year, Seager has completely pulled away: where Figgins had a .234/.313/.332 line with a 99/54 K/BB in 125 games of his tour of double-A, Seager got out in a little over half the time and departed with a .336/.401/.495 line and a 38/26 K/BB. That he’s capable of working counts should help him adjust to the big leagues a little more easily. I wouldn’t expect him to start going yard and start stealing bases as Ackley has been, but doubles, spray hitting, and a respectable on-base percentage are not out of the question.
Whether Seager will end up being our long-term solution to the ongoing third base issue, I can’t say just yet. Some would like to see more power from the position, but what we can even realistically expect out of him right now is going to be a huge improvement over what the position has seen lately. Even if Seager never ends up being a star, he’s one heck of an upgrade right now, and a pretty cool guy to boot.
Game 87, Mariners at Athletics
Mid-day game today, with Jason Vargas taking on Guillermo Moscoso of the A’s at 12:35.
Moscoso‘s got a shiny ERA and atrocious peripherals – his sub-3.00 ERA sits awkwardly next to his 5+ xFIP. A BABIP of .200 will do that. He’s a fly-baller that the M’s saw a few times in the spring, and while his results have been solid, he’s really just holding down the fort until Tyson Ross comes back from his oblique injury.
Josh Bard getting the start seems pretty much inevitable, given that Olivo’s just back from injury, it’s a day game after a night game, and Bard caught Vargas’ CG shutout 5 games ago.
Franklin Gutierrez had a well-timed single last night, but his slash line since June 1st is now .162/.194/.182. His last extra-base hit came 70 plate appearances ago. The M’s have jettisoned some of their worst hitters, got Gutierrez back from injury, brought up Dustin Ackley…and have seen their team wOBA go down. Yes, Halman and Peguero are falling off quickly, and Smoak had a long drought, but this offense needs *something* out of the CF spot. I’d chalk it up to Gutierrez rounding back into game shape, but he’s getting worse the more he plays. The M’s may need to reduce his innings substantially so that he can (hopefully) build some strength.
So, uh, go M’s!
Line-up:
1: Ichiro! (RF)
2: Ryan
3: Kennedy (DH)
4: Smoak
5: Ackley
6: Peguero
7: Gutierrez
8: Bard
9: Figgins
Just Curious
Does anyone still think Carlos Peguero has any business in the Major Leagues? Everyone realizes he’s atrocious now, right?
The M’s should send him down tomorrow. Literally anyone would be better.
Game 86, Mariners at Athletics
Happy Felix Evening!
Felix vs. the enigmatic Trevor Cahill.
Of note: Ichiro gets one of his rare DH starts, with Halman playing RF. Olivo’s back, so this line-up is pretty much as powerful a group as the M’s are able to muster.
Lineup:
1: Ichiro! (DH)
2: Ryan
3: Kennedy
4: Smoak
5: Ackley
6: Olivo
7: Peguero (LF)
8: Gutierrez (CF)
9: Halman (RF)
Sorry for the lateness of the post…after my commute, I could really use a beer. Let’s go Mariners!
Be Bold, Jack
Over at FanGraphs today, I wrote a piece advocating for the Pirates to act as buyers as we head towards the trade deadline, even though it’s pretty likely that they’ll end up falling short of the playoffs. They aren’t actually a very good team, and their current record is something of a fluke, but I still believe that the potential rewards from that fluke lasting all year outweigh the potential gains that could be made by punting the season and acting as sellers.
I believe that this applies to the Mariners as well. This is not a great team, but they’re in a position to give Seattle some interesting baseball in September, and I think they should capitalize on that opportunity. I know the Bill Bavasi era made us very reluctant to trade any young players, but the reality is that the franchise has some players who would have some trade value and probably don’t have a future in Seattle.
Michael Saunders is the most obvious player in that position. He’s still get a little bit of former top prospect shine attached to him, and he’s still a good athlete with some interesting tools. There are organizations out there who would probably be willing to see if they could fix his swing and teach him how to hit Major League pitching. If the M’s were looking to make a blockbuster deal, Saunders wouldn’t be enough on his own, but I’d imagine they could make a smaller move to improve the roster using him as bait. And we shouldn’t let the fact that Bavasi traded away legitimately good talents like Asdrubal Cabrera scare us away from being willing to move a guy like Saunders.
The Mariners need a real left fielder, and if takes giving up Saunders to get a guy who can actually hit big league pitching, so be it. I wouldn’t advocate moving any of the guys that you think could be a real part of the future here, but a guy like Saunders (or maybe even Carlos Triunfel, who also is likely most valuable to the team as trade bait) is expendable. The M’s have some pieces to make a move and improve this team for 2011 without mortgaging the future, and as I talked about in the FG piece, the payoff of stealing a playoff spot is often worth more than the payoff of keeping a marginally interesting prospect around and seeing what he turns into.
Game 85, Mariners at Athletics
Happy 4th of July, and happy Pineda day!
Michael Pineda faces the last-place A’s and the 2nd-worst offense in MLB (behind the M’s, of course). He’ll be opposed by twitter superstar Brandon McCarthy, making his first start since May 19th when he went on the DL with a “stress reaction” in his shoulder. Lucky for McCarthy, the M’s bats don’t tend to stress pitchers out too much.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro!
2: Ryan
3: Kennedy (3B)
4: Smoak
5: Ackley
6: Cust
7: Halman (CF)
8: Peguero
9: Bard
No Gutierrez today with a right-hander on the mound for Oakland. Never thought I’d say this, but I wouldn’t mind seeing more of Halman to allow Gutierrez to rest/build his strength back towards where it was in 2010 (I worry that we may not see the 2009 version for quite some time).
(Edited to correct where the game’s occurring. Oops. First pitch is at 1:05pm)
Minor League Wrap (6/27-7/3/11)
Happy Fourth! I’ll be answering some questions early and then others much later on. No new news on the international signing front except that everything you thought you heard is now unconfirmed.
To the jump!
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Game 84, Padres at Mariners
Blake Beavan makes his MLB debut today in perhaps the best situation a rookie fly-ball hurler could ask for: facing the Padres at Safeco Field.
The 6’7″ 240-250lb righty faces a line-up that doesn’t hit for a lot of power; keep fastballs away from Anthony Rizzo and Chase Headley, and he can hopefully keep out of trouble. His recent velo increase has helped make his change-up a bit more of a viable pitch, and he mixes in a slider as well. The M’s made two moves to get Beavan on the roster. First, they moved Chris Gimenez to the 60-day DL to open a 40 man spot. Then, they optioned Mike Carp to Tacoma to make room on the 25 man roster. Welcome to the show, Blake.
The M’s face Mat Latos, who’s in the unusual position of being smaller than the pitcher he’s facing. Latos has had a disappointing year that started with a shoulder injury and a DL stint.
The line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Kennedy (3B)
4: Smoak
5: Ackley
6: Halman (LF)
7: Peguero (DH)
8: Gutierrez (CF)
9: Bard
*Update to a previous story: The M’s now say that they don’t have a deal in place with Helsin Martinez. Bob Engle spoke to Ben Badler of BA early this morning disputing the published reports (from BA and elsewhere) that the M’s had inked Martinez to a $2m deal. Here’s Larry Stone’s post on the controversy.