What’s the worst Mariner gift?
After reading this fine Bill Simmons column I started to search for M’s items. And then I thought “it’s okay to take that idea and run with it, isn’t it?” Last year I would have said “16-game ticket pack” quickly escalating to “season tickets” but clearly that’s changing.
The stuff I found in my first couple of minutes:
Greg Hibbard autographed baseball, $24
Jose Vidro autographed bat $40 despite being presumably unscuffed by contact with balls
Richie Sexson autographed baseball $111
The $60 Mariner Door Mat (“good 75% of the time”)
What I really wanted, though, were the kind of things Simmons was writing about: a Slocumb game jersey, a Raul Ibanez glove. A Kevin Mitchell injection-used cortisone dose bottle. A Carlos Silva fondue set. What’s out there I should look forward to receiving as a gag gift from particularly cruel relatives?
Results of the USSM Dave Cameron Scholarship Drive
Including donations outside Pledgie and my match of the first $500, I’ll be cutting Dave a check for
$8,826.76
to support his college education.
Really. $8,826.76.
I am filled with gratitude for you all.
Three quick things
1. I’m closing the scholarship drive tomorrow, which will involve cutting Dave a giant novelty check and probably writing a really sappy post about how awesome the USSM readership and Dave are. Get in while you still can, so you’ll feel warm and fuzzy when you read my temporary break with antipathy.
2. Conor asked me if I was going to do a USSM off-season music post, and I said “Not until John Richards tells me what the best albums were.” But seriously — we usually throw out USSM Endorsements during the off-season lull of depression, and our new front office hasn’t given us any off days. But we’ll get around to our standard random features (whether you enjoy them or not).
3. I’ll be spending some site-tinkering time this weekend, so if there’s something that’s been bugging you about the USSM design/layout, that’s always a good time for me to fix things as long as I have the code open.
Ibanez to Philly
The Phillies gave Raul Ibanez a 3 year, $30 million deal to replace Pat Burrell today. It was pretty much a lock that the team that signed Ibanez was going to be an old-school type, but honestly, I’m a bit surprised that Philly was dumb enough to make this move. With guys like Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Geoff Jenkins, and Pedro Feliz, it was clear that they knew a good defensive player when they saw one. I guess they just feel that it’s totally fine to have a lumbering oaf running around left field. They’ll regret this contract by July, though.
For the M’s, this means they get the 28th pick in the 1st round and a compensatory pick that will be somewhere in the 37-42 range, depending on whether some of these other Type A free agents change teams or not. Their second round pick should be in the 46-50 range, so right now, the M’s have the 2nd, 28th, ~39th, and ~48th picks in the draft next summer. If they don’t sign Josh Fields, you can add the 21st pick to that list, and then shove everything else back a pick.
The new prospects
Aside from getting Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez and Aaron Heilman, Zduriencik also pulled in four prospects in yesterday’s mega deal. Let’s take a closer look at the younger players in the deal…
Mike Carp
The Mets drafted Carp in the ninth round of the 2004 draft out of California baseball powerhouse Lakewood High School in Lakewood, Calif. The lefthanded hitter signed for $60,000 and got off to a modest start in the Gulf Coast League. He put himself on the prospect radar the following year by hitting .249/.358/.476 with 19 home runs over 313 at-bats in the Sally League. He improved in 2006 by putting up a line of .287/.379/.450 in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. 2007, however, was a different story. He broke his finger in spring training and then had a disappointing season in his first taste of Double-A, hitting just .251/.337/.387 over 359 at-bats before getting some extra time in the Arizona Fall League. He repeated Double-A this year as a 22-year-old and did a nice 180, hitting .299/.403/.471 with 29 doubles and 17 home runs over 478 at-bats with an Eastern League-leading 79 walks (14.2%) and 88 strikeouts (18.4%). There has been some concern that Carp can’t hit lefties, but he seems to have improved against them this year, hitting .263/.347/.434 over 152 at-bats against southpaws. Carp doesn’t have huge power like some first base prospects, but he compares favorably to guys like Lyle Overbay and it’s nice to see Zduriencik bring in a player with good place discipline. For what it’s worth, his 79 walks last year would have led all Mariners’ farmhands and he easily becomes the M’s best first base prospect. Not that there was much competition…
Maikel Cleto
Savvy Mets fans are not happy about losing Cleto—and for good reason. On the surface, the 19-year-old Dominican righthander doesn’t look like much. He pitched 136 innings for Class A Savannah last season, striking out 81 and walking just 34 on his way to a 4.25 ERA. Dig a little deeper though and you learn that the 6-foot-3, 215 pounder features a mid-90s fastball and has even flirted with triple digits. That’s a rare arm and, although the mainstream media made Cleto seem like a throw-in in the deal, he reportedly would have been the Mets’ eighth-best prospect had he stayed in their system and Sally League managers rated his fastball as the best in the league. While the strikeouts seem low for a guy with that kind of heat, he’s a guy that could really take off if his secondary stuff comes around. At the very least, Cleto’s an electric bullpen arm. Cleto should join Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez and Michael Pineda to form the California League’s best rotation next season.Â
Jason Vargas
The Marlins drafted Vargas in the second round of the 2004 draft as a senior out of Long Beach State, where he was a member of the Dirtbags’ rotation with Jered Weaver. Vargas started his professional career with the short-season Jamestown Jammers of the New York-Penn League where the stocky southpaw made eight starts, striking out 41 and walking 13 over 41 innings before getting promoted to the Sally League to finish the season. That winter, Baseball America ranked Vargas as the eighth best prospect in their system. He worked his way up their organizational ladder before being traded to the Mets in November 2006 along with Adam Bostick for Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens. Vargas has a solid minor-league track record, but has struggled with injuries and inefficiency over his first 127 major league innings. Vargas has a mid-to-upper 80s fastball, a slider and a changeup. While it’s not shutdown stuff, he will compete with Justin Thomas and Jose Lugo to become the second lefty out of the bullpen.
Ezequiel Carrera
Coincidentally, Carrera profiles pretty similarly to Endy Chavez. The small-framed outfielder doesn’t have much juice in his bat, but he’s a good defender—rated as the best defensive outfielder in the Florida State League by the league’s managers—he can draw a few walks and has good speed. He stole 28 bases in 37 attempts and led the league with 12 triples … not too shabby for the seventh player in the deal.
M’s Select Reegie Corona In Rule 5 Draft
The M’s used the second pick in the Rule 5 draft to pluck 22-year-old middle infielder Reegie Corona out of the Yankees system. He’s played both SS and 2B, though spent most of 2008 playing second base for Trenton in Double-A.
If you liked Willie Bloomquist, you’ll like Corona. He’s a switch-hitter with very little power who knows how to work the count and will take some walks, and he’s also a pretty good baserunner. His total lack of power limits his upside to utility guy, but Corona’s the type of guy that explains why we’ve always said Bloomquist is so easily replaced. These guys are everywhere.
He’s probably the M’s 25th man/pinch runner/backup shortstop. Very little upside, but fills a decent hole that the M’s didn’t have any internal candidates for.
The M’s also had the Royals select LHP Jose Lugo for them, so they essentially made two of the first nine picks. Lugo was the guy I was hoping they popped at #2, so I’m obviously happy they ended up with him. He’s got a heavy sinking fastball that sits in the low-90s which makes him a groundball-and-strikeout reliever. His slider and change need work and his command isn’t great, but he’s got the repertoire to be a very good LOOGY.
In the Triple-A phase, the M’s plucked Patrick Ryan from the Brewers. You can bet Z knows exactly what he’s getting here, and he’s pretty easy to peg – RH extreme sinkerball reliever with mediocre command and no out pitch. It’s the Sean Green/Roy Corcoran skillset that we all know and love.
The Starting Nine
After a night to sleep on it and a chance to talk to some people and find out what the two lower level prospects bring to the table, I’m now of the opinion that this is a fantastic deal for the Mariners. This is best illustrated by looking at the roster as a whole, as it stands right now. The offense/defense numbers that follow are position adjusted projections for ’09, and remember, +2 is league average.
Line-Up:
1. Ichiro, RF, +5 offense, +5 defense, +20 replacement level: +3 wins
2. Lopez, 2B, -2.5 offense, -5 defense, +20 replacement level: +1.25 wins
3. OPEN, DH, -10 offense, +0 defense, +20 replacement level: + 1 win (this is a guess)
4. Beltre, 3B, +5 offense, +10 defense, +20 replacement level: +3.5 wins
5. Branyan, 1B, -5 offense, +0 defense, +20 replacement level: +1.5 wins
6. Gutierrez, CF, -5 offense, +10 defense, +20 replacement level: +2.5 wins
7. Clement, C, +5 offense, -10 defense, +20 replacement level: +1.5 wins
8. Balentien, LF, -10 offense, -10 defense, +20 replacement level: +0.0 wins
9. Betancourt, SS, -5 offense, -5 defense, +20 replacement level: +1.0 wins
Bench (this includes playing time projections based on their reserve status):
C: Johjima, -3 offense, +0 defense, +5 replacement level: +0.2 wins
IF: Shelton, +0 offense, +0 defense, +5 replacement level: +0.5 wins
IF: Hulett, -5 offense, +2 defense, +5 replacement level: +0.2 wins
OF: Chavez, -5 offense, +5 defense, +5 replacement level: +0.5 wins
Position Player Totals: -22.5 offense, -5 defense, +16.65 wins
There are some holes, obviously, but all those holes have legitimate upside. I’m not a big Balentien fan, as I have him performing at replacement level, but there’s definitely potential for him to get to something like a +1.5 win player this year if he makes some strides. I gave Clement a very harsh defensive rating, so maybe his work ethic allows him to improve faster than expected and he proves me wrong. I’m assuming the team is going to sign a stop-gap DH and get moderate production from that spot, but it’s pretty easy to find a guy who can mash and has some upside, and they could pick up another win there. Maybe Lopez doesn’t regress as much as I expect offensively or Betancourt finds his missing range somewhere. All of these won’t happen, but some could.
All told, I think it’s fair to expect the current crop of position players on the roster to be something like +15 to +20 wins above replacement. A contending team would get about +25 wins from their position players, so the pitching staff would have to be tremendous in order to get this group to the playoffs, but it’s a huge improvement over where this team finished 2008.
Yes, there are questions about where Heilman fits, how this affects Morrow, and how they sort out the pitching staff, but I’m pretty Zduriencik isn’t done, and we’ll look at the pitching staff once it’s settled. You build a franchise around position players, though, and Zduriencik has made sure that the starting nine that takes the field in 2009 is significantly better than the one that took the field in 2008.
Goodbye JJ, Hello Defense
Rosenthal says it’s a done deal. From the M’s perspective, this is what’s being reported:
M’s trade RHP J.J. Putz, RHP Sean Green, OF Jeremy Reed, and 2B Luis Valbuena for OF Franklin Gutierrez, RHP Aaron Heilman, OF Endy Chavez, 1B Mike Carp, and “minor leaguers” from Cleveland.
Z’s first significant trade is certainly a big one – probably the most interesting trade the M’s have pulled off in five years. Let’s break down the pieces by win value.
Putz (+2 wins), Green (+1 win), Reed (+0.5 wins), and Valbuena (+1 win) represent a net loss of about 4.5 wins over replacement level players. Combined, they’ll make about $7 million in 2009, so it’s definitely a valuable group of players – productive and cheap. Putz and Valbuena are the real pieces of value, though – Reed and Green are role players. Valbuena could be a league average second baseman pretty quickly, and the Indians did well to spot him as a guy who could help them long term. I hate giving up Valbuena, as I was hopeful the M’s would sell high on Lopez and keep Luis as his replacement.
However, the M’s aren’t getting a bunch of crap in return.
Gutierrez is a +2 win OF (yes, even with a questionable bat, he’s a league average player) who instantly solves the center field problem. Heilman is a +1 win reliever with an undefined role. He wants to start but isn’t good enough to, so if they can convince him to close, that’s in everyone’s best interests. Chavez is a +1 win OF who will probably share time with Wlad (like Gutierrez, his defense is other worldly), and Carp is a +0 win prospect with moderate upside – think Lyle Overbay if he develops well.
The M’s ship off about +4.5 wins and get back +4 wins, so you could call it a big push overall, but that’s where the nuances come in. Here are the reasons I like this deal:
1. The +2 win player the M’s are getting back is much younger than the +2 win player they’re giving up, and they have him under team control for a lot longer. For where this team is, Gutierrez is more valuable than Putz.
2. One of Valbuena or Lopez had to go, because there was no way for them to coexist at full value. In that sense, the M’s swapped a prospect at a position of depth for a prospect at a position where they have a gaping hole. I like Valbuena better than Carp, but Carp has a much clearer road to a job in Seattle.
3. By acquiring Gutierrez and Chavez, the M’s just have given themselves the ability to run out one of the best outfield defenses in baseball on days where they send a contact pitcher to the hill. A Chavez/Gutierrez/Ichiro outfield will make Silva and Washburn look significantly better than they really are, and by investing in the defense, the M’s have made it possible that they could salvage some value from a pair of bad contracts.
To me, those three things swing this trade into the plus column for the M’s. That doesn’t make it a total home run – Heilman’s desire to start and the loss of Putz and Green make it much more likely that Morrow’s going to remain in the bullpen, Chavez is only under team control for one year, and Gutierrez’s right-handed bat isn’t a great fit for Safeco.
But in this case, I’d say the positives outweigh the negatives. It’s not an outright fleecing like Putz for Joyce would have been (and if that was on the table, I’d have done that before I did this, but it’s quite possible that was never offered), but I’d say that the Mariners are better right now than they were yesterday and they have a brighter future, and that makes this a good trade.
Franklin Gutierrez Is Really, Really Good At Defense
The trade’s not official yet, but I wanted to get this out there before the instant reactions come in and people think we screwed the pooch by trading for a RH outfielder who posted a sub .700 OPS last year.
Franklin Gutierrez is something like one of the top 5-10 defensive outfielders in baseball. Not corner outfielders – outfielders.
In 1,773 innings in RF/LF, he’s racked up a UZR of +29.6. Those are crazy, Carl Crawford, “why aren’t you playing center field?” kind of numbers. Not surprisingly, in the 159 innings he has played CF (the Indians have this Sizemore kid you may have heard of), Gutierrez was +2.6, which translates to +17 runs over a full season.
Now, he’s probably not that good. The only guys who have really, truly been +20 or better in full time center field action are the early decade versions of Mike Cameron and Darin Erstad. So maybe he’s really more like a +10 CF or a +20 RF/LF (the average CF is 10 runs better than the average corner OF, so Gutierrez’s numbers are right in line with what we’d expect).
That puts him up there with the best of the best in terms of defensive outfielders. He’s better than Ichiro, better than guys like Torii Hunter or Vernon Wells, better than Jacoby Ellsbury. Franklin Gutierrez can run down fly balls in the outfield with the best of him.
The bat has question marks, there’s no doubt about it. And we’ll talk about all that when the trade becomes official. But don’t get caught up in thinking that Gutierrez is just a decent glove like Reed was. Gutierrez is a defensive monster.
Putz trade close
According to Baker, Zduriencik believes that a deal for Putz is close. That goes along with this from Ken Rosenthal:
The Mets are working to acquire a setup man for new closer Francisco Rodriguez — and that setup man would be another closer from the American League West.
J.J. Putz could be headed to the Mets in a three-team trade with the Mariners and Indians, according to major-league sources.
Mets right-hander Aaron Heilman, outfielder Endy Chavez and first-base prospect Mike Carp would be in the deal, as would Indians outfielder Franklin Gutierrez.
The deal also would include one or more prospects, but it is not yet clear which players are headed where.
It’s a pretty crazy rumor with a lot of details missing. If it comes into clearer view, we’ll update the post. I will say this, though – Franklin Gutierrez is one of the very best defensive outfielders in the game (think Mike Cameron with a few less walks), and if the Mariners are really targeting him after going after Matt Joyce, it should be clear that he understands the value of good gloves in the outfield.
Update: Now the rumors have expanded to include us giving up Luis Valbuena, and apparently the Rays read the blog, realized Matt Joyce was both good and available, and are about to pick him up for Edwin Jackson. The Rays are what we absolutely should be aspiring to.
Second Update: Apparently, the M’s are going to give up Putz, Reed, and Luis Valbuena and get Gutierrez, Aaron Heilman, and Mike Carp, with various assorted pieces ending up in Cleveland and New York. It’s a remarkably interesting deal on a lot of levels. I love Gutierrez’s glove, but would have preferred Joyce as a better fit for Safeco. Heilman demanded a trade because he wants to start, and we’ve already got too many starters. And I hate giving up Valbuena, but Carp could be a legit 1B of the future. We’ll break it all down once it becomes official.