Well, this is different
“I look at Corcoran, and opposing hitters averaged .283 against him,” Wakamatsu said. “But he had a four-to-one ratio of ground balls (to fly balls). Did they find every hole?
“The fact is that we have to catch more ground balls. I want to bring these kinds of statistics to the coaches and players. It’s a way to get better. Maybe it just means we need to shade the middle more, or maybe we need to focus more on what specific hitters do against each of our specific pitchers.”
If you weren’t already convinced, this organization understands the value of defense now.
“We’re looking to see if there is a plus-plus defensive second baseman out there,” Wakamatsu said. “Then if we move Jose to first base, and he can defend there and make us above average on the right side, that would be good. That’s the whole focus — can we defend?
“Look at Tampa Bay. Look at what (shortstop Jason) Bartlett did for that team last year. They had some phenomenal players already, but sometimes it’s that one player in a key position that makes things work.”
Obviously, I love the fact that our new manager thinks like this. This is a huge step forward in analytical skills from the bench. That said, I don’t think I’m on board with Lopez as a first baseman. Let’s break it down.
If we assume that Lopez is below average at second base (UZR has him at average-ish the last three years, but trending worse), then we’d call him -5 at the position. If he moved to first base, he’d certainly be one of the better defensive 1B in the league (thanks to the fact that the comparison group is full of immobile stiffs), but would also have decreased opportunities. Let’s call him +5 at first base, though, since we’re running through Wakamatsu’s scenario here.
Now, the team wants a “plus plus defender” at second base if they’re going to move Lopez, so we have to assume that new guy would be +10 or so. Adam Kennedy would be a pretty good example of a +10 defensive second baseman, and he’s not exactly happy in St. Louis, so let’s just pretend the M’s could go trade for Kennedy to make this all happen.
With Kennedy at 2nd and Lopez at first, you’d have a +15 defensive right side of the infield. With Lopez at second and a Branyan/Shelton platoon at first, you’d have something like a -7 defensive right side of the infield (Branyan’s below average, Shelton’s above average, but Branyan will play more, so I call that platoon -2). So, the positive defensive result would be +22 runs. That’s a lot.
However, the M’s would be filling the last remaining spot in the line-up with Adam Kennedy. Remember when I projected the position players last week? I assumed the team would find a cheap, .340 wOBA DH. That guy would be out, replaced by Kennedy’s bat, and because the Branyan/Shelton duo would be DH’ing, there’d be less at-bats for Clement at DH, so we’d have to adjust his PA’s downward a bit.
The 1B/2B/DH spots are good for about 1850 plate appearances. Right now, I have those allocated as something like 600 for Lopez, 50 for Corona, 450 for Branyan, 200 for Shelton, 500 for random DH, and 100 for Clement. A weighted average offensive value for that group at those PA levels would be +6 runs. You replace Random DH with Kennedy and shift 50 of Clement’s at-bats to Kennedy, and the weighted average offensive value for the new group would be -11 runs.
If we assume that the M’s were going to get a generic, below average DH (Griffey, for instance), and that this strategy would result in them acquiring a top notch defensive second baseman, and that Lopez would adjust to first base without any problems, the overall net gain to the team would be something like 5 runs.
That’s not a big enough deal to justify upsetting Lopez, nuking his trade value as a second baseman, and giving up something to get a guy like Kennedy. I’ve been pushing this team to improve their defense for years, but clearly, it’s a balance – if the offensive trade-off is nearly as large as the defensive gain, then you’re not improving the roster (and vice versa).
And in this case, it creates some long term issues as well. Say Adam Moore or Rob Johnson develop and Clement shows he just can’t hack it behind the plate, so you want to move Clement to DH. Now you’re benching Branyan, because you’ve blocked off first base, and you’re taking one of the better bats on the roster out of the line-up. You’re also putting Lopez in Mike Carp’s way, and with the Luis Valbuena trade, the organization doesn’t really have a long term replacement at second base anymore.
I’m thrilled Wakamatsu recognizes that the defense was a problem, and that it really messed up the pitching staff the last few years. I love the fact that our manager is going after knowledge that could improve the club, even if it’s not conventional, by-the-book stuff. I love that he’s publicly quoting Roy Corcoran’s ground ball rate.
But, I don’t think I’m on board with Lopez as a first baseman. If the team wants to improve their infield defense, they should be looking to trade Lopez, not move him to first base.
Let me be a little more specific about Ibanez’s suckiness
Ibanez is essentially making an argument that for a set of reasons, the systems are stacked against him. That it’s based on probability, doesn’t consider defensive positioning, that people doing the stats are evaluating it off TV, and that they don’t do enough on how hard balls are hit.
All of which is fine. These are flaws in the system that we can consider.
How is it, though, that these flaws have conspired year after year to show Ibanez as an increasingly crappy fielder? Wild coincidence? Horrible luck?
Ibanez mentions the ballpark factor. But as Dave’s alluded to, if there’s any bias in measurements of outfielders at Safeco Field it’s in their favor, as the wind hangs up balls for easy outs. And again, there’s no reason why this factor makes Ibanez particularly look bad and didn’t make (say) Randy Winn equally bad.
He mentions that people are prejudiced about him. This is — frankly — bunk. If there’s going to be a strong perception bias, what you’d see is that defensive stats wouldn’t disagree so vehemently with Gold Glove voting (which Ibanez thinks suck too). Defensive stats showed that a number of guys who have media perceptions as good defenders stink. Michael Young is awful out there, for instance — but if there was a bias in the measurement of stats based on how he was perceived, you’d see the defensive stats agree.
Or if you want to argue there’s some bias effect, then it wouldn’t explain how Ibanez, who is not the marquee name other fielders carry and is certainly not well known as a defensive butcher in the Manny mode, has been so consistently rated poor and gotten worse over the years.
That’s the big thing. Also,
But if you go around the game, and you ask the players, you ask quality major league scouts, you ask managers, they’ll tell you I’m the type of player they want on their team.
Ibanez never says he’s good defensively, we should note. Or, to be snarky, why they want him on their team or in what role. He’s taking offense at the suggestion that he’s one of the worst fielders in baseball, which he is. And I don’t blame the other players and managers and whoever he’s talked to for not breaking the news to him. It’s not polite.
But if Ibanez seriously believes that if I went out and asked a couple of quality major league scouts who’d seen him play left field for a couple of games what they thought of his defense that they would rave about it, well, he’s delusional. Remember Peter Gammons quoting someone describing Ibanez’s routes in the outfield as someone being chased by a swarm of bees? That was years ago. He hasn’t gotten faster, or better. He’s older, slower, and worse.
I like Ibanez as a guy, and he’s been one of the few offensive threats on this team over the last few years except when he wasn’t pretending he was healthy but actually injured. I don’t blame him for wanting to try and maintain some dignity about taking a huge deal to play the outfield every day. But I really think that he might have been better off looking for a DH job, because he wipes out so much of his contributions by being worthless with the glove that it’s going to become a big deal at some point, and all the animated GIFs and whatever other mockery he’s endured so far will pale in comparison to what they’ll dish out in Philly.
Ibanez is not good at defense
Much goodness in this Baker discussion with Ibanez on his departure.
To sum up: Ibanez doesn’t believe in defensive stats.
His specific arguments are notable for being surprisingly cogent. Most players dismiss defensive measurement with a much broader brush (“dumb kids in mom’s basement hurr hurr hurr”).
He’s also wrong, of course.
Save The Date
Saturday, January 10th, 2009. It’s the next USSM event. It’s going to be awesome. It will include 100% less of me, but that just means that Derek will finally have a chance to get a word in since I’m not hogging the mic.
Seriously, you’re not going to want to miss this one. Details will be forthcoming, but don’t plan anything for the 10th.
Random snow day post
My commute runs ~4 miles. I take the bus. On the way in early this morning (I had a presentation to give to a bunch of execs, who generally drive huge SUVs and come in on snow days) I saw five crashed or stranded Metro buses, and a dozen stranded/crashed cars including the highlight of my morning, a red Camaro someone managed to put head-first into a concrete bus shelter.
Good times.
That’s okay, I’m optimistic
Building on Jason’s post below, I figured I might as well throw this out there – I couldn’t be any more thrilled with how the Mariners are being run right now than I currently am. I know, most Mariner fans see 2009 as a lost year with no hope of contention. They see Washburn and Silva and Batista and Bedard and Johjima and are reminded of just how badly this organization was run the last few years. They see a big payroll, a bad offense, and a pitching staff with a lot of questions.
Not me.
I see a roster full of hope. I see two brand new tremendous defensive outfielders and realize that we no longer have to beg the team to understand that running down balls in the gaps is just as valuable as hitting balls in the gaps. I see a $1.9 million first base platoon of undervalued players who could produce league average production while holding down the fort until a long term replacement can be found. I see a potential long term replacement in the 22-year-old with a .400 OBP that just got acquired. I see two other intriguing young talents being added to the farm system in Ezequiel Carrera and Mickael Cleto. I see the team filling the holes in the bullpen with buy-low, solid upside guys like Jason Vargas and Jose Lugo.
If people want to call it rebuilding, that’s fine. I’d say it’s more of an overhaul, though – a complete teardown of the old processes and in importation of new, better processes. Not everything Zduriencik and crew do is going to work, but there’s a mountain of evidence that shows that they understand how to build a good team, and that the moves they make will be built on solid logic.
I see a team that has moved away from ERA, RBIs, and chemistry, and is marching towards actual wins. Yes, Raul Ibanez and J.J. Putz are gone, and the local media will tell you that those guys are humongous losses to a roster of bad players. I will tell you that this team, right now, is better than the one that went to spring training in March. Franklin Gutierrez is a better player than Raul Ibanez. The M’s aren’t rebuilding by getting worse and hoping kids develop – they’re rebuilding by bringing in better players than the ones that were previously.
The Mariners are going the right way. They’re building for the future and the present at the same time, and they’re implementing processes that will lead to long term sustained success. I haven’t been as optimistic about this organization as I am now in… probably forever. Let the pessimists wail about the losses of guys they know, and watch as the Mariners win with guys they don’t.
Go Z. Go M’s.
M’s fans pessimistic
On the MLB page over at ESPN.com right now, the poll question reads: “Do you expect your favorite MLB team to be competitive in 2009?” I clicked “no” and then submit so I could see the results.
As you might imagine, the entire country (as well as international voters) are bullish on their teams. With nearly 15K votes cast, 83% of people expect their team to be competitive. Except for those in Washington, who are currently voting 50/50 in the poll.
No other state sits at less than 68% yes.
Furcal to Braves, maybe
Being reported as done, and also as not done yet. If it pans out, it eliminates one of the options for upgrading the M’s middle infield this off-season.
The Staff
Clearly, the Mariners aren’t done making changes to their roster. I’d imagine we’ll see another trade or two before the off-season ends, as the current pitching staff has a lot of unanswered questions. Based on what’s here today, this is how I’d project the pitching staff for 2009.
#1 Starter: Felix Hernandez
#2 Starter: Erik Bedard
#3 Starter: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
#4 Starter: Carlos Silva
#5 Starter: Jarrod Washburn or Ryan Rowland-Smith
Closer: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
RH Setup: Miguel Batista
LH Setup: Jason Vargas or Ryan Rowland-Smith
RH Middle: Roy Corcoran
LH Middle: Jose Lugo or Jason Vargas
Mopup: Mark Lowe
Long: Cesar Jimenez or Jason Vargas
If you notice, there’s 13 names up there, and this assumes the M’s will go with a 12 man pitching staff. They may only go 11 deep. Either way, one or two guys from above won’t be making the roster, and if you think Justin Thomas might sneak into the LH reliever competition, that would make 14 names. A few people are going to have to go away.
Silva and Batista aren’t going anywhere. There’s just no way to get rid of their contracts, and both are at their lowest point in terms of value. The best for both is to try to put them in situations where they have a quality defense behind them and hope for a good first half. If Batista settles in as a decent reliever, you might be able to dump him in July. With Silva, you’re just hoping he gives you 160 decent enough innings, and then maybe you can eat half of his contract next winter to be rid of him.
The guys that you want on the roster, without question, are Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Heilman, and Rowland-Smith. Those five should come to camp with significant job security. The latter three may not have defined roles right now, but we should be pretty confidant that they’re on the staff. Combined with the two total albatross contracts, that makes a pitching staff of seven that you’re pretty set on.
The other six guys are the marginal ones. The team should move Washburn if they can, but there was no interest in him at the winter meetings, so they might be forced to carry him into spring training and hope that some team gets interested when someone on their staff gets hurt. If that’s the case, then you lose a rotation spot to hand to Rowland-Smith, and he goes to the ‘pen, which means one less job for the Vargas/Lugo/Jimenez trio to fight over. Lugo has the advantage of being a Rule 5 guy, so he’s more likely to stick than guys with options left. Vargas has good get-out-lefty stuff, which Jimenez does not, so Vargas is more likely to stick as the traditional LH setup guy, while Jimenez is probably best suited as a long reliever.
Corcoran pitched well last year, and probably slides into the Sean Green role of groundballing right-handed relief guy, while Lowe gets handed a low leverage role until he can prove that he’s close to getting his stuff and command back.
That brings us to the big issue – Heilman and Morrow. Both want to start – Morrow has made it very clear that he thinks he proved he can be a starter in the big leagues at the end of the season, while Heilman demanded a trade because he wanted a chance to prove he could take the hill every five days as he heads towards free agency in 2010. With the roster the way it is right now, there simply isn’t room for both. One of them will amost certainly be asked to head to the bullpen, and would head into spring training as the most likely option to begin the year as the closer.
That’s not what either of them, or the organization for that matter, would deem as the best option long term. Realistically, this team needs to lose a starting pitcher or two and pick up a right-handed reliever who can get get both RHB and LHB out. There are options to get that point (eat a lot of money to move Washburn being the obvious one), but none of them are great options.
So far, we’ve given Zduriencik a big thumbs up for his early moves. Picking up guys like Branyan and Shelton on the cheap were astute moves, and the Putz trade was a fantastic one for the organization, but now it gets harder. If he’s really going to expedite the reshaping of this roster and get us setup to have a solid team that is building towards 2010, he needs to figure out how to toss Jarrod Washburn overboard without taking a bad contract back and convince RR-S to hang out in the bullpen until they have a chance to figure out what to do with Bedard.
Realistically, the M’s goal should be to end the 2009 season with a rotation of Felix, Morrow, Heilman, Silva, and Rowland-Smith. Getting there won’t be easy. Now we find out just how good of a GM Zduriencik can really be.
A quick word on the ads
The meat ad is gone! Yayyy! Unfortunately that was a consequence of having both an extremely short turnaround time on ad approvals (24h! Seriously!) and a 3-month buy. We really try to keep on top of this stuff. It’s a pain, though, frequently in excess of the monetary return. Which is not at all hard, given we make like $1 from ad sales.
Anyway! I wanted to point out that thing’s been replaced by a lovely ad by a USSM reader with an actual interesting baseball product, which should make everyone happy. So go check it out. I promise there’s no long, gory video waiting for you.