Future Forty Updated for May
With the M’s having the day off, we can once again spend the day focusing on the minor leagues. Through the first month of the season, there are a lot of interesting things happening on the farm, with several breakthrough performances worth pointing out. The Future Forty update for May is one of the more significant in-season adjustments you’ll see, as 20 games doesn’t usually change my opinion of a player too much, but when the performance changes are this drastic, we have to take notice.
One guy in particular has made me eat my words, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge his improvement. Matt Tuiasasopo, congratulations, you officially had the best month of baseball of your life. In 24 games, he hit .365/.451/.506 with 9 extra base hits and 12 walks in 85 at-bats. He doesn’t turn 21 for two more weeks, but he’s already made the necessary adjustments to hang with Double-A pitching. Considering where he was last year, that’s impressive development. Now, not everything with Tui is perfect – he still lacks home run power, his success has been built mostly by hitting a lot of singles, and he’s still not a good defensive third baseman. However, there’s still enough untapped power in his frame to project more growth, and his offense is finally looking like it might make up for his deficincies with the glove. There’s still a lot of work to do, but Tui’s resurgence is clearly the best story to come out of the farm system in April.
In other good news, Carlos Triunfel has a .684 OPS for Wisconsin. No, seriously, that’s good news. As a 17-year-old playing in the Midwest League, the bar for what would be considered a successful statistical season is very low. The MWL is death to hitters of any age – the league average for MWL hitters is .245/.313/.350. That’s the league as a whole. Triunfel, who is seventeen years old, is hitting .298/.333/.351. Yea, he’s basically all singles at this point, with only 3 doubles and 2 walks to his credit, but keep in mind, there have been 12 home runs hit in the 19 T’Rats games this year. That’s 12 home runs by both teams combined. The Midwest League is death to hitters, especially in April, and Triunfel is essentially hitting .300 in what would be his junior year in high school. This kid is really, really good.
Also, while we’re in Wisconsin, can I just point out that the T’Rats as a team have a 26/185 walk to strikeout rate. That’s ridiculous, even for a low-A ball team. Alex Liddi is the only guy on the team with any semblance of an idea of how to work the count, drawing 8 walks by himself. The next highest guy on the team is Kuo-Hui Lo with 3. Greg Halman is continuing to run up obscene BB/K rates, drawing 1 walk against 27 strikeouts in 76 at-bats. The offense is full of young kids who have been pushed aggressively to full season ball, so some degree of hackishness is expected, but 26 walks and 185 strikeouts? Can we get a roving hitting instructor down there, please?
Sticking with the Wisconsin theme, Chris Tillman is featuring his four seam fastball more this year and his command has taken a pretty big step forward. Meanwhile, Tony Butler’s been unable to find the feel for any of his pitches, and has walked 14 batters in 14 innings. I still prefer Butler’s overall package, and I’m not worried about the walks at this point. His command will come around, and when it does, his combination two-seamer and curveball are going to be lethal. There’s just a lot of upside there.
Moving up the ladder, Wladimir Balentien just finished his best Matt Tuiasasopo impression. The grip-it-and-rip-it outfielder has toned down his swing somewhat and is making better contact, leading to an impressive .365 average. He’s still got some flaws in his swing and will never be confused for a patient hitter, but he’s not the swing-from-the-heels hack he was in recent years. The improvement isn’t as large as the numbers make it seem, since this hot streak is being driven by a lot of singles, but it’s still nice to see Wlad getting better as a hitter. His defense still isn’t very good, so his value will come from his bat. As a right-handed pull hitter, he’s not a perfect match for Safeco, so it will be curious to see how the M’s handle him if he continues hitting through the summer.
Also in Tacoma, Bryan LaHair sucks again. Nice to know that his two week hot stretch to end the season last year really was a fluke. I’ve never been a fan, and he’s not doing anything to convert me to his side. There’s just a lot of work to do for a guy who is 24-years-old.
Oh, and for the Doug Fister faithful, your boy finally cracked the list. It wasn’t so much that my opinion of him changed, however, as much as I just really wanted to kick Michael Wilson off the list. If you begin the season 2 for 40 like Wilson has, and I already had a lot of questions about your ability to hit, well, you’re not going to last on the Future Forty. Seriously, 2 for 40 with 21 strikeouts? Not good, Mike.
As always, feel free to point out any errors you see and use this thread as a minor league catch all for any discussions on specific prospects or player development.
Credit where credit is due
Vidro, so far: .333/.372/.420
One of the better hitters on the M’s so far, for what that’s worth. I’ve mentioned this in comments a couple of times, but the taking-a-good-cut Vidro who puts th ball in the air is far, far more effective than the ground-ball Vidro. You can’t beat those out any more, Turbo. Take a cut at it.
Vidro: .333/.372/.420
AL DH: .265/.349/.465
Trading 20 points of on-base for forty points of slugging is, value-wise, pretty much a wash.
All of which makes Vidro so far a league-average DH who’s being paid a lot for a while. Now, that shouldn’t affect your view of him in the team lineup-on-the-field context, but as part of the overall roster and team construction, well, go right ahead.
AL DH Moolah Meter
—
Giambi: $21m
Thome $14m
Sheffield $13m
Ortiz: $12.5m
Sweeney $11m
Frank Thomas $9m
Piazza $8.5m
Vidro $7.5m (total cost)
Hillenbrand $6.5m
Vidro $6m (cost to M’s in 07 including Nationals payout)
Hafner $3.65m
Catalanotto $3.5m (+Sosa etc)
Millar/Perez $2.75m
Kubel/etc $0
Dukes/Gomes $0
If Vidro continues to hit this well (which, obviously, we’ve predicted won’t happen, but we’re wrong often enough) and the parts the M’s gave up turn out to be not worth much (again), Vidro’s a decent enough patch for a position the M’s were unable to solve for years. We could argue that it’s a misallocation of resources, Broussard would be a better choice, and on and on, but there it is — paying a league-average DH league average DH money isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Somewhat related Cult of Doyle update: 0-2 with a walk today. He’d be tied with Sexson for the team lead in walks despite having much less playing time. We’ve noted before that Snelling’s a huge streak hitter, and when he’s got his swing together he’s a terror and when he’s hacking it can be ugly, but I really feel like the Nationals are killing him with this spot usage and their incomprehensible outfield rotation: if I’ve ever seen anyone who would benefit from getting a steady supply of plate appearances to stay in a groove when they’re hot, it’s Doyle. But he’s not getting it.
Game 19, Royals at Mariners
Meche vs Weaver, 6:05 pm.
The M’s are exactly the kind of team Meche should thrive against, since they’ll chase his breaking ball out of the zone and not make him work deep into counts and run up his pitch count. The Royals are exactly the kind of team Weaver should thrive against because they only have two or three major league hitters in their line-up.
Toss in Safeco Field, and I have a feeling we’re going to have a low scoring affair that is decided by the bullpens. And I’ll be stunned if we don’t see Julio Mateo in tonight’s game. Never mind, Jeff Weaver still blows.
Game 18, Royals at Mariners
De la Rosa vs Ramirez, 7:05 pm.
Jorge De la Rosa was famously once described by Dan Duquette as “the Mexican John Rocker”. He’s been pretty horrible in the majors up until this year, but at age 25, he’s finally showing why his arm used to get scouts pretty excited. He tossed 8 scoreless innings in his last start while throwing strikes and missing bats. He looks like he may be in the beginning stages of a true breakout season.
The Royals acquired him last July in a one for one trade for Tony Graffanino.
Meanwhile, Horacio Ramirez was once described by me as “a pretty crappy pitcher”. Scouts have never liked his arm. He tossed 4 horrible innings in his last start, not throwing any strikes and missing no bats at all. He looks like a AAAA starter who is in the beginning stages of pitching himself into a middle relief role.
The Mariners acquired him last December in a one for one trade for Rafael Soriano.
Go M’s.
The multi-inning save
Yesterday, Mike Hargrove asked J.J. Putz to get five outs to save the game. In his last appearance, he was asked to get four outs. Both times, he succeeded without any problem, shutting the door and ensuring the Mariners get a win against a divisional rival. For his part, J.J.’s willing to work multiple innings, but it apparently isn’t high on his wish list:
“It’s something you don’t want to have to do on a consistent basis,” Putz said of his five-out save. “But I’ve said this before, when I talked to Mariano [Rivera] last year he said, ‘Sometimes the biggest outs are in the eighth inning, and that’s when you may need to come in and save a game.’
Hooray for Mariano Rivera’s understanding of leverage! When Putz entered the game last night, the leverage index was 3.90. Keep in mind, leverage is a scale built around 1.00 being average, and anything over 2.0 is considered a very important situation. Most closers have leverage indexes in the 2.0 to 2.5 range, so while the 9th inning is indeed a higher pressure inning than most others, it doesn’t even hold a candle to the huge effect the 8th inning had on yesterday’s game.
In Monday’s game, when Putz was brought on in the 8th inning, the leverage was 4.71! That’s about as high leverage a situation as you’ll ever see.
We’ve given Hargrove a lot of crap for the way he runs his bullpen, living by strictly defined roles and putting guys in positions where they are very unlikely to succeed. But on his willingness to use Putz as a multi-inning closer, he’s ahead of the curve. J.J. got at least 4 outs in 15 different games last year, and that he’s already been asked to do it twice this year is a good sign.
When the game is on the line, you should have your best available reliever to try to get the outs. In almost every situation, that guy is going to be J.J. Putz. The 8th inning is often a very high leverage situation, and Hargrove’s willingness to use Putz to get more than the standard three out save is going to help this team win games.
Game 17, Mariners at A’s
Batista vs Kennedy, 12:35 pm.
Standard line-up for the M’s, even with a lefty on the hill.
For all the new readers who think I hate the Mariners.
GO M’s! WIN TODAY! WOO! GO TEAM GO!
Also, Derek’s at Powell’s on Hawthorne tonight at 7, so if you’re Portland, swing by and talk Cheaters Guide, Mariners baseball, and how I’m a horrible person. He’ll also be on KFXX 1080AM at around 6:00 to 6:20 for those of you in PDX, so feel free to tune in and listen to him talk before you go see him talk. It’s all Derek, all the time for Portlanders tonight.
Credit Stealing
Predictably, the analysis of last night’s game is showering Jarrod Washburn with praise. Washburn himself called it “one of the best games I’ve ever pitched”. Mike Hargrove said he didn’t “know that he left a ball out over the plate all night long.” Geoff Baker talks about how this is the “prototype the Mariners envisioned for the mound staff.”
In this Mariner-centric analytical universe, the results on the field are dominated by the influences of the Mariners players. In this case, since Jarrod Washburn threw a complete game shutout, he’s getting credit for having pitched a great ballgame, with few hints that other people factored into the outcome as well.
In reality, Jarrod Washburn was a witness to the A’s shutting themselves out. They ran out a line-up that would have trouble scoring against a PCL pitching staff, then proceeded to hack their way into easy outs. There’s not a pitcher in the major leagues that would have struggled to shut down last night’s A’s team. Their offense is a mess.
However, that’s not how mainstream baseball analysis works. For whatever reason, it’s not good enough to note that the competition imploded upon themselves. Instead, we’re required to shower our guys in accolades, because clearly they were responsible.
Jarrod Washburn was throwing the same 86 MPH below average fastball he throws every game. He threw it over the plate, just like always, and the opposing hitters put it in play, just like always. This was the same stuff, and the same location, he has every time he takes the mound. Good hitters tee off on his below average fastball, while bad hitters get themselves out.
Unless the Mariners play the A’s every game the rest of the year, you won’t see that approach to pitching achieve those results again. The A’s shut themselves out last night. Jarrod Washburn just happened to be the scheduled pitcher.
Game 16, Mariners at A’s
Washburn vs Blanton, 7:05 pm
Standard M’s line-up. A’s go Stewart-Ellis-Chavez-Piazza-Crosby-Johnson-Buck-Kendall-Putnam.
Blanton owned the Mariners last year, and pitched well against them earlier this season even while giving up four runs in six innings. The M’s offense is still pretty terrible.
On the other hand, the A’s have approximately four healthy players, and their offense is likely the worst in baseball. This game could last all of about two hours and end 1-0 without either pitcher breaking a sweat.
Mariner fandom checks boxes for anxiety, depression, fatigue, flu-like symptoms
“The problem, Jim, is that people who are really suffering from a medical condition won’t receive the care they need because someone in this office is coming up with all this ridiculous stuff. Count Choculitis.”
“Sounds tough.”
“Why did you write that down, Jim? Is it because you know I love Count Chocula?”
Game postponed, to be made up in July. Whee. However… we got some Larry Stone! Writing… well, check this out: here’s the opening paragraph:
This is the wrong year for the Mariners to expect patience. They have already burned that bridge.
Yeaaaaaaaaaah. Came with a handy chart.
MLB.com: “Vidro heating up” Vidro’s temperature is now ‘tepid’
However, Jamie Burke, official backup catcher of USS Mariner, is off to a nice start.
At the PI, Greg Johns pointed out the offense has sucked.
Fifteen games into this stop-and-start season, the Mariners have made no positive strides in their attempt to be more patient at the plate, work more bases on balls or increase their on-base percentage.
A year after ranking 27th among the 30 big league teams with an on-base percentage of .325, the Mariners again sit 27th in that critical statistic with an even-lower .305 mark.
When it comes to walks, the Mariners have dropped from 29th at 2.5 per game to dead last at 1.9.
It’s a fairly substantial blow for a leadoff piece in a notebook. Nice.
The Bad of the Good
Mike Hargrove needed a win last night as he fights to quell the growing calls for his job. The team needed a win last night to keep the losing streak from becoming a repeat of the 2006 debacle. So, facing a bases loaded, one-out situation in a tie game, Brandon Morrow gave both Hargrove and his teammates a huge lift. His strikeouts of Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz took the game out of the Rangers hands. As he threw 97 MPH gas past one of the leagues hottest hitters, everyone in Seattle saw why the M’s decided to bring him north with the team out of spring training.
Those were the best pitches of Brandon Morrow’s young career. They may also have been the worst possible outcome for Brandon Morrow, Starting Pitcher. Last night’s performance was eerily similar to this game, which I have a vivid memory of. Derek and I were at this game, watching from his seats on the rail of the 300 level, when Rafael Soriano made his major league debut. Soriano then proceeded to blow away Red Sox hitters for three innings with little more than a 97 MPH four seam fastball. He looked unhittable coming out of the pen.
That was an image the Mariners never forgot – the unhittable reliever, Rafael Soriano. Despite significant success in the minors as a starting pitcher, Rafael Soriano was given 8 starts later that year, and after failing to repeat the dominance he showed in that initial relief appearance, he was then shifted back to the bullpen for the 2003 season. He never made another start for the Mariners.
Brandon Morrow made an impression last night. The people in the organization won’t soon forget the kid throwing 97 MPH fastballs right past Ian Kinsler. That impression isn’t going to go away anytime soon. Brandon Morrow’s success last night just bought himself a very short leash if he ever is moved back into the rotation in the future. The M’s have a strong bias towards shifting power arms to the bullpen and putting finesse pitchers in the rotation to begin with, and Morrow’s performance will simply enhance their belief that his stuff is going to be best suited to relief work.
Last night was a win for the Mariners in the short term, but it very well could have been a huge blow to Brandon Morrow’s career as a starting pitcher. If he never gets a real chance to pitch in the rotation again, you can point to last night as one of the primary reasons why.