Quick Thoughts From Anaheim
Since I was down in Long Beach for the national SABR convention, I made the trek over to Angels Stadium each of the last three days. A few quick thoughts from the stadium:
1. The rally monkey is the worst invention ever. So horrible.
2. Dustin Ackley is fantastic. He hit line drives all over the park all weekend long, worked counts, played defense… seriously, he might just be the best position player in the organization right now.
3. Justin Smoak hit a bunch of balls pretty hard that went right at people. I know this slump is getting long and tedious, but I’m not too worried. He was never going to be Albert Pujols, so his fantastic April might have inflated expectations beyond a reasonable amount, but he’s still a good young hitter.
4. Felix topped out at 94 today on the same gun that had Jeff Gray (!?!) at 93 tonight. Pitch F/x says he hit 95, but he sat around 91-93 for most of the day. I’m not worried yet, but the M’s should really start backing off of his workloads in the second half. I know he’s big and strong and has endured large workloads before, but he’s averaging 113 pitches per start and has thrown 100+ in all but two games all season. You can justify workloads like that when a team is going for a playoff spot, but not in a rebuilding year. Wedge needs to put a tighter leash on Felix for the rest of the year.
5. Speaking of teams going for a playoff spot, I’d imagine this week ended any thoughts of the M’s being buyers at the deadline. With Texas finally playing well and the M’s getting whooped by the Angels, the team’s playoff chances are now slim to none. Any pretense of this being a contending team is now over, and I’d imagine we’ll see veterans moved in trades over the next few weeks. The Mariners still should focus on acquiring pieces that can help them sooner than later, but they’re probably out of the running for any rental types or guys who would be more about 2011 than 2012.
6. Mike Trout is fast.
Game 91, Mariners at Angels
Whoa, sorry for the late game thread. M’s scored 2 in the top of the first on a two-out single by Adam Kennedy. Happy belated Felix Day!
Hernandez v. Haren
Line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Smoak
5: Kennedy
6: Gutierrez
7: Bard
8: Seager
9: Halman
Game 90, Mariners at Angels
Pineda vs. Pineiro, 7:05
The M’s best chance to sneak a win in the series comes tonight, as Michael Pineda gets to face the Angels for the first time and the Angels start someone other than their big two. Joel Pineiro’s been a decent starter this year, though his strike-out rate’s at a career low, and his GB rate (while still above average) is just over 50%, a far cry from the 60% he put up in his last year with the Cardinals. Still, the M’s have made guys like Guillermo Moscoso and Cory Luebke look amazing, so forget I said anything. Pineiro struggled a bit against lefties so far, so it may be a decent matchup for Kyle Seager.
Franklin Gutierrez isn’t feeling well today, which means Greg Halman slides over to center field and Carlos Peguero is back in LF. I’m glad Guti’s taking a day off, and it doesn’t sound serious, but then, the flare-ups he had during spring training didn’t sound serious either, and here we are half way through the season and Guti’s been on the DL and hit like a pitcher when he’s played.
Line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Olivo
5: Kennedy (1b)
6: Smoak (DH)
7: Seager
8: Halman
9: Peguero
In the minors, Jarrett Grube returns to the Rainiers and gets the start tonight against Reno (7pm). Dylan Unsworth, the South African pitcher who only walked one in the AZL season last year got roughed up a bit today v. Johnson City in the Appy league. Chris Sorce takes the ball for High Desert at 7, and Everett and Peoria haven’t named starters yet.
Game 89, Mariners at Los Angeles MikeTrouts
Beavan vs. Santana, 7:05
Peguero gets a night off (against a righty, no less) and Ackley’s up to the #3 spot in the line-up.
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Ackley
4: Olivo
5: Smoak
6: Cust
7: Gutierrez
8: Seager
9: Halman
On tap in the minors:
* Tacoma’s at home taking on Reno at 7. We’ll see if Carp is back in the line-up. Luke French vs. ex-M’s property Gaby Hernandez.
* Mauricio Robles moves up to AA Jackson and gets the start tonight. He had a rough go of it in High Desert, but he’s just building strength in his come-back from elbow surgery. Last night’s starter, Erasmo Ramirez, is officially on a cold streak. One of my favorite dark horses, Ramirez had a great April/May, but the Nicaraguan’s freakish control has left him at times, and he’s starting to develop a HR problem. Hey, it was an aggressive promotion and he’s not out-and-out bad. C’mon Erasmo!
* Taijuan Walker pitched last night for Clinton and gave up 1 hit in 6 innings, striking out 11. Tonight’s starter is not Taijuan Walker, but it’s ex-M’s prospect, then Orioles injury victim, now M’s reclamation project Tony Butler. It’s only a matter of time before we reacquire Chris Tillman.
Angels Call Up Top Prospect Mike Trout
Kyle Seager had one day to be the center of attention. The Angels called up their top prospect, CF Mike Trout, from AA this morning to replace Peter Bourjos who strained his hamstring on a double last night.
Trout was the Angels’ 2nd first round pick in the 2009 draft, a kid from a cold-weather state that not many people expected a lot out of. Oops. Though he doesn’t turn 20 until next month, he’s currently sporting a .324/.415/.534 line in the high minors along with what’s reported to be plus defense in center field. He’s stolen 28 bases thus far as well. A right handed hitter, he doesn’t show much in the way of platoon splits. He’s far and away the Angels top prospect, and some have him ranked as the #1 prospect in all of baseball (ahead of Bryce Harper). The Angels had a bit of a dilemma on their hands given that Peter Bourjos, the rookie incumbent in CF, is an elite defender. Would they move Trout off the position? Move Bourjos? For now at least, they don’t have to. If Trout hits like he has in the minors, he can play anywhere and be an all-star.
He may not start quite as hot as Dustin Ackley has, but he shouldn’t be overmatched. It pains me to say it, but I think this could be a great move for the Angels. Instead of using Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells to cover for Bourjos (and picking up someone like Juan Rivera or a AAAA left fielder), they limit the defensive hit due to Bourjos’ injury. They’re getting Trout’s feet wet a bit earlier than they may have planned, but he’s not going to be a Super 2, and I’m not sure they could’ve held him off in April of next year anyway. The choice here was pushing his call up to May of 2012 or going for it now. With the Halos starting play a game back of the Rangers, they need to put their best team on the field right now.
Assuming he plays tonight, he’ll face Blake Beavan, which is a far cry from the challenge Seager faced last night.
Interesting tidbit courtesy of Sam Miller of the Orange County Register: “If Mike Trout were on the Angels low-A team in Cedar Rapids, he would be the second-youngest player on the roster. If he were on the high-A team in the Cal League, he would be 17 months younger than his youngest teammate.”
The AL West race in 2011 hasn’t featured great teams, but it’s never been boring. Wow.
Game 88, Mariners at Angels
Fister vs. Weaver
Kyle Seager’s first game in an M’s uniform is a divisional clash against arguably the best pitcher in the American League. The M’s did beat Weaver back on May 18th behind a Jason Vargas shutout, but Weaver responded with a complete game shutout of his own on June 14th.
M’s line-up:
1: Ichiro
2: Ryan
3: Kennedy (1B)
4: Smoak (DH)
5: Ackley
6: Olivo
7: Seager (3B)
8: Gutierrez
9: Peguero
More on Seager
You’ve read Jay’s great piece on the move, but I wanted to chime in with my thoughts and discuss the strategy of the move in more detail.
First, Seager’s got a short, quick, level swing that he used to ping line drives around Cheney Stadium when I saw him. That’s great; I’m generally pro line-drive, but it actually makes it harder to know what to expect. He’s not going to hit for much power (the HR he hit at Cheney was a routine fly hit into a strong wind), but his eye should help him post an OBP well above that posted by the M’s left fielders, and easily above the incumbent at 3B, Chone Figgins. He struggled a bit against left-handers, just as Ackley did initially in AAA, but that almost sounds like nit-picking when he put up a .523/.571/.795 line against right-handers. The Angels start four righties in the upcoming series, by the way.
In some ways, this is an ideal situation for Seager. He’s playing in the same infield as his elementary school friend/rival, the guy he’s replacing is putting up one of the worst seasons in M’s history and is widely reviled by M’s fans, and he’s playing for an org that clearly doesn’t mind a 3B without HR power. On the other hand, he’s going to be making his debut in an absolutely crucial four-game series against a division rival at a time when the M’s are within 4 games of the division lead. The M’s clearly thought that playing a talented hitter in this series meant a lot more than playing a veteran hitter, and that’s a sentiment I’m sympathetic to. But let’s be clear: the M’s think the best chance they have to stay in a wide-open AL West race is to call up a 23 year old 2B who’s played two weeks in AAA, and a half-season in the high minors. I agree with their decision, but I don’t like what that says about this team.
Kyle Seager moved to 2B upon signing with the M’s, and he spent 2010 there for High Desert. This year, he played 2B for Jackson, then starting playing more 3B in Tacoma (as Jay mentioned). He played the position in college, so it’s not like he’ll forget which base to throw to, but he doesn’t have the arm strength of an Alex Liddi; David Bell may be a decent comp. In any event, the M’s aren’t turning to Seager for his glove, and Figgins has been so shaky defensively this year that it’s not at all clear that Seager will be a downgrade. Still, if you’ve been nervous about position switching, then this has to be something of a red flag. The M’s moved Figgins off of 3B, but he had much more professional experience at 2B than Seager has at 3B. He’s been very solid since his promotion to Tacoma, but we’re talking about six games and a smattering of chances.
In short, the M’s probably aren’t making this move because they’re smitten with the BABIP-driven video-game slash line Seager’s produced in Tacoma. They’re making the move because they’re desperate, and their offense is comically bad. So yes, Seager’s not terribly experienced at 3B (at least in professional ball), but they’re almost certainly right that he’ll be of more use than Figgins. I’m happy that the M’s system has options to help the ballclub beyond the consensus top 5 guys, but what does it say when a guy like Kyle Seager would hypothetically upgrade several positions in the M’s line-up? The player development group should be praised for Seager’s breakout, but what does it say that no one who started the year as a 3B could fill the role? I was impressed by Seager, and hope he has at least as much success as Dustin Ackley’s had in his first tour of MLB, but for every positive statement you can make about this specific move, you can make a negative one about this move’s context.
Welcome to the show, Kyle. Keep the M’s in the divisional race, would you?
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Kyle Seager is On the Way
This is happening a lot quicker than I expected, but reports are making the rounds that 3B/2B Kyle Seager has been selected from Tacoma and C Jose Yepez has been DFA’d. Yepez didn’t even get a game in with the M’s and was only around to be a third backstop with Olivo hurting. It’s Seager that everyone is paying attention to, and rightly so.
Since he was promoted to Tacoma (where he’s been hitting .455/.500/.673), he’s seen six games at third, one at short, and five at second. That’s an increase in time at the hot corner from what we saw back when he was with Jackson, where he only spent three of sixty-six games there. Still, one should not be too concerned about him defensively. He spent his final year at UNC playing third, and has answered a lot of questions about his range and whether or not he could handle the middle infield during the the past couple of seasons. The glovework should be no issue for him, and the arm, while not a cannon or anything, is not something that’s going to hinder him as he moves to the left side of the infield. Barring any weird yips, he’ll be able to make the plays over there.
As for what to expect from him with the bat, I’d say patience, line drives, and mostly doubles power. When people were asking me about him in the offseason, I came up with an interesting comkp for him which a lot of people will hate. Up until this season, you can compare Seager’s line by age to that of Chone Figgins and see some similarities as they were coming up when you adjust for park. The difference there was that Seager would hit more doubles and some would leave the park entirely, whereas Figgins game was more about stealing bases and stretching the double into a triple [I refer, of course, to the good annoying Figgins who played for the Angels as opposed to the bad annoying Figgins that has played for the Mariners]. Of course, this year, Seager has completely pulled away: where Figgins had a .234/.313/.332 line with a 99/54 K/BB in 125 games of his tour of double-A, Seager got out in a little over half the time and departed with a .336/.401/.495 line and a 38/26 K/BB. That he’s capable of working counts should help him adjust to the big leagues a little more easily. I wouldn’t expect him to start going yard and start stealing bases as Ackley has been, but doubles, spray hitting, and a respectable on-base percentage are not out of the question.
Whether Seager will end up being our long-term solution to the ongoing third base issue, I can’t say just yet. Some would like to see more power from the position, but what we can even realistically expect out of him right now is going to be a huge improvement over what the position has seen lately. Even if Seager never ends up being a star, he’s one heck of an upgrade right now, and a pretty cool guy to boot.
Game 87, Mariners at Athletics
Mid-day game today, with Jason Vargas taking on Guillermo Moscoso of the A’s at 12:35.
Moscoso‘s got a shiny ERA and atrocious peripherals – his sub-3.00 ERA sits awkwardly next to his 5+ xFIP. A BABIP of .200 will do that. He’s a fly-baller that the M’s saw a few times in the spring, and while his results have been solid, he’s really just holding down the fort until Tyson Ross comes back from his oblique injury.
Josh Bard getting the start seems pretty much inevitable, given that Olivo’s just back from injury, it’s a day game after a night game, and Bard caught Vargas’ CG shutout 5 games ago.
Franklin Gutierrez had a well-timed single last night, but his slash line since June 1st is now .162/.194/.182. His last extra-base hit came 70 plate appearances ago. The M’s have jettisoned some of their worst hitters, got Gutierrez back from injury, brought up Dustin Ackley…and have seen their team wOBA go down. Yes, Halman and Peguero are falling off quickly, and Smoak had a long drought, but this offense needs *something* out of the CF spot. I’d chalk it up to Gutierrez rounding back into game shape, but he’s getting worse the more he plays. The M’s may need to reduce his innings substantially so that he can (hopefully) build some strength.
So, uh, go M’s!
Line-up:
1: Ichiro! (RF)
2: Ryan
3: Kennedy (DH)
4: Smoak
5: Ackley
6: Peguero
7: Gutierrez
8: Bard
9: Figgins
Just Curious
Does anyone still think Carlos Peguero has any business in the Major Leagues? Everyone realizes he’s atrocious now, right?
The M’s should send him down tomorrow. Literally anyone would be better.