Random snow day post
My commute runs ~4 miles. I take the bus. On the way in early this morning (I had a presentation to give to a bunch of execs, who generally drive huge SUVs and come in on snow days) I saw five crashed or stranded Metro buses, and a dozen stranded/crashed cars including the highlight of my morning, a red Camaro someone managed to put head-first into a concrete bus shelter.
Good times.
That’s okay, I’m optimistic
Building on Jason’s post below, I figured I might as well throw this out there – I couldn’t be any more thrilled with how the Mariners are being run right now than I currently am. I know, most Mariner fans see 2009 as a lost year with no hope of contention. They see Washburn and Silva and Batista and Bedard and Johjima and are reminded of just how badly this organization was run the last few years. They see a big payroll, a bad offense, and a pitching staff with a lot of questions.
Not me.
I see a roster full of hope. I see two brand new tremendous defensive outfielders and realize that we no longer have to beg the team to understand that running down balls in the gaps is just as valuable as hitting balls in the gaps. I see a $1.9 million first base platoon of undervalued players who could produce league average production while holding down the fort until a long term replacement can be found. I see a potential long term replacement in the 22-year-old with a .400 OBP that just got acquired. I see two other intriguing young talents being added to the farm system in Ezequiel Carrera and Mickael Cleto. I see the team filling the holes in the bullpen with buy-low, solid upside guys like Jason Vargas and Jose Lugo.
If people want to call it rebuilding, that’s fine. I’d say it’s more of an overhaul, though – a complete teardown of the old processes and in importation of new, better processes. Not everything Zduriencik and crew do is going to work, but there’s a mountain of evidence that shows that they understand how to build a good team, and that the moves they make will be built on solid logic.
I see a team that has moved away from ERA, RBIs, and chemistry, and is marching towards actual wins. Yes, Raul Ibanez and J.J. Putz are gone, and the local media will tell you that those guys are humongous losses to a roster of bad players. I will tell you that this team, right now, is better than the one that went to spring training in March. Franklin Gutierrez is a better player than Raul Ibanez. The M’s aren’t rebuilding by getting worse and hoping kids develop – they’re rebuilding by bringing in better players than the ones that were previously.
The Mariners are going the right way. They’re building for the future and the present at the same time, and they’re implementing processes that will lead to long term sustained success. I haven’t been as optimistic about this organization as I am now in… probably forever. Let the pessimists wail about the losses of guys they know, and watch as the Mariners win with guys they don’t.
Go Z. Go M’s.
M’s fans pessimistic
On the MLB page over at ESPN.com right now, the poll question reads: “Do you expect your favorite MLB team to be competitive in 2009?” I clicked “no” and then submit so I could see the results.
As you might imagine, the entire country (as well as international voters) are bullish on their teams. With nearly 15K votes cast, 83% of people expect their team to be competitive. Except for those in Washington, who are currently voting 50/50 in the poll.
No other state sits at less than 68% yes.
Furcal to Braves, maybe
Being reported as done, and also as not done yet. If it pans out, it eliminates one of the options for upgrading the M’s middle infield this off-season.
The Staff
Clearly, the Mariners aren’t done making changes to their roster. I’d imagine we’ll see another trade or two before the off-season ends, as the current pitching staff has a lot of unanswered questions. Based on what’s here today, this is how I’d project the pitching staff for 2009.
#1 Starter: Felix Hernandez
#2 Starter: Erik Bedard
#3 Starter: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
#4 Starter: Carlos Silva
#5 Starter: Jarrod Washburn or Ryan Rowland-Smith
Closer: Aaron Heilman or Brandon Morrow
RH Setup: Miguel Batista
LH Setup: Jason Vargas or Ryan Rowland-Smith
RH Middle: Roy Corcoran
LH Middle: Jose Lugo or Jason Vargas
Mopup: Mark Lowe
Long: Cesar Jimenez or Jason Vargas
If you notice, there’s 13 names up there, and this assumes the M’s will go with a 12 man pitching staff. They may only go 11 deep. Either way, one or two guys from above won’t be making the roster, and if you think Justin Thomas might sneak into the LH reliever competition, that would make 14 names. A few people are going to have to go away.
Silva and Batista aren’t going anywhere. There’s just no way to get rid of their contracts, and both are at their lowest point in terms of value. The best for both is to try to put them in situations where they have a quality defense behind them and hope for a good first half. If Batista settles in as a decent reliever, you might be able to dump him in July. With Silva, you’re just hoping he gives you 160 decent enough innings, and then maybe you can eat half of his contract next winter to be rid of him.
The guys that you want on the roster, without question, are Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Heilman, and Rowland-Smith. Those five should come to camp with significant job security. The latter three may not have defined roles right now, but we should be pretty confidant that they’re on the staff. Combined with the two total albatross contracts, that makes a pitching staff of seven that you’re pretty set on.
The other six guys are the marginal ones. The team should move Washburn if they can, but there was no interest in him at the winter meetings, so they might be forced to carry him into spring training and hope that some team gets interested when someone on their staff gets hurt. If that’s the case, then you lose a rotation spot to hand to Rowland-Smith, and he goes to the ‘pen, which means one less job for the Vargas/Lugo/Jimenez trio to fight over. Lugo has the advantage of being a Rule 5 guy, so he’s more likely to stick than guys with options left. Vargas has good get-out-lefty stuff, which Jimenez does not, so Vargas is more likely to stick as the traditional LH setup guy, while Jimenez is probably best suited as a long reliever.
Corcoran pitched well last year, and probably slides into the Sean Green role of groundballing right-handed relief guy, while Lowe gets handed a low leverage role until he can prove that he’s close to getting his stuff and command back.
That brings us to the big issue – Heilman and Morrow. Both want to start – Morrow has made it very clear that he thinks he proved he can be a starter in the big leagues at the end of the season, while Heilman demanded a trade because he wanted a chance to prove he could take the hill every five days as he heads towards free agency in 2010. With the roster the way it is right now, there simply isn’t room for both. One of them will amost certainly be asked to head to the bullpen, and would head into spring training as the most likely option to begin the year as the closer.
That’s not what either of them, or the organization for that matter, would deem as the best option long term. Realistically, this team needs to lose a starting pitcher or two and pick up a right-handed reliever who can get get both RHB and LHB out. There are options to get that point (eat a lot of money to move Washburn being the obvious one), but none of them are great options.
So far, we’ve given Zduriencik a big thumbs up for his early moves. Picking up guys like Branyan and Shelton on the cheap were astute moves, and the Putz trade was a fantastic one for the organization, but now it gets harder. If he’s really going to expedite the reshaping of this roster and get us setup to have a solid team that is building towards 2010, he needs to figure out how to toss Jarrod Washburn overboard without taking a bad contract back and convince RR-S to hang out in the bullpen until they have a chance to figure out what to do with Bedard.
Realistically, the M’s goal should be to end the 2009 season with a rotation of Felix, Morrow, Heilman, Silva, and Rowland-Smith. Getting there won’t be easy. Now we find out just how good of a GM Zduriencik can really be.
A quick word on the ads
The meat ad is gone! Yayyy! Unfortunately that was a consequence of having both an extremely short turnaround time on ad approvals (24h! Seriously!) and a 3-month buy. We really try to keep on top of this stuff. It’s a pain, though, frequently in excess of the monetary return. Which is not at all hard, given we make like $1 from ad sales.
Anyway! I wanted to point out that thing’s been replaced by a lovely ad by a USSM reader with an actual interesting baseball product, which should make everyone happy. So go check it out. I promise there’s no long, gory video waiting for you.
What’s the worst Mariner gift?
After reading this fine Bill Simmons column I started to search for M’s items. And then I thought “it’s okay to take that idea and run with it, isn’t it?” Last year I would have said “16-game ticket pack” quickly escalating to “season tickets” but clearly that’s changing.
The stuff I found in my first couple of minutes:
Greg Hibbard autographed baseball, $24
Jose Vidro autographed bat $40 despite being presumably unscuffed by contact with balls
Richie Sexson autographed baseball $111
The $60 Mariner Door Mat (“good 75% of the time”)
What I really wanted, though, were the kind of things Simmons was writing about: a Slocumb game jersey, a Raul Ibanez glove. A Kevin Mitchell injection-used cortisone dose bottle. A Carlos Silva fondue set. What’s out there I should look forward to receiving as a gag gift from particularly cruel relatives?
Results of the USSM Dave Cameron Scholarship Drive
Including donations outside Pledgie and my match of the first $500, I’ll be cutting Dave a check for
$8,826.76
to support his college education.
Really. $8,826.76.
I am filled with gratitude for you all.
Three quick things
1. I’m closing the scholarship drive tomorrow, which will involve cutting Dave a giant novelty check and probably writing a really sappy post about how awesome the USSM readership and Dave are. Get in while you still can, so you’ll feel warm and fuzzy when you read my temporary break with antipathy.
2. Conor asked me if I was going to do a USSM off-season music post, and I said “Not until John Richards tells me what the best albums were.” But seriously — we usually throw out USSM Endorsements during the off-season lull of depression, and our new front office hasn’t given us any off days. But we’ll get around to our standard random features (whether you enjoy them or not).
3. I’ll be spending some site-tinkering time this weekend, so if there’s something that’s been bugging you about the USSM design/layout, that’s always a good time for me to fix things as long as I have the code open.
Ibanez to Philly
The Phillies gave Raul Ibanez a 3 year, $30 million deal to replace Pat Burrell today. It was pretty much a lock that the team that signed Ibanez was going to be an old-school type, but honestly, I’m a bit surprised that Philly was dumb enough to make this move. With guys like Jayson Werth, Shane Victorino, Geoff Jenkins, and Pedro Feliz, it was clear that they knew a good defensive player when they saw one. I guess they just feel that it’s totally fine to have a lumbering oaf running around left field. They’ll regret this contract by July, though.
For the M’s, this means they get the 28th pick in the 1st round and a compensatory pick that will be somewhere in the 37-42 range, depending on whether some of these other Type A free agents change teams or not. Their second round pick should be in the 46-50 range, so right now, the M’s have the 2nd, 28th, ~39th, and ~48th picks in the draft next summer. If they don’t sign Josh Fields, you can add the 21st pick to that list, and then shove everything else back a pick.