A’s sign Emil Brown and a related long player development rant
May be an indication they’ve all but dealt Kotsay to the Braves (update: yup, Kotsay’s gone). I’m going to burn a lot of words on this.
My favorite quote from the MLB.com story:
Hitting with runners in scoring position has been a problem for the A’s in recent years, and Brown could help in that area, as well. He batted .316 (37-for-117) in such situations in 2007.”That’s obviously a plus,” Forst said, “but I wouldn’t say that was a factor in our decision to sign him.”
Hee hee hee! Oh, the A’s. You guys are so awesome.
Emil Brown’s an interesting player from a team-building and a development view. He’s a decent player, but moreover, he’s a great example of the kind of guy you can get for free if you’re paying attention. Brown started in the A’s minor league organization, then the Pirates took him in the Rule 5 draft. He kicked around the Pirates system for a while, not getting much playing time, then was traded to San Diego in 2001. In 2005, at 30, he signed a minor-league deal with the Royals and in that thin system got a full-time job and hit .286/.349/.455. And the next year he hit .287/.358/.457 — and this is a player the Royals got for free. Read more
’08 M’s, Meet the ’07 Blue Jays
Since it’s the topic we can’t get away from, here’s something I thought of in the last few days – if the Mariners make the Erik Bedard deal and have the pitching rotation of Geoff Baker’s dreams, is there a comparable recent team that was built on similar principles?
I think there is, and ironically, it’s the Toronto Blue Jays of 2007. Isn’t symmetry fun?
Seriously, let’s take a look at the concepts. Those in favor of the Bedard deal essentially argue that having Bedard-Felix-Silva-Batista-Washburn is such a good rotation, and that starting pitching is so vital to team success, that the team becomes an instant contender. Two aces, two innings eaters, and no unreliable guys who have no track record to sabotage things? How could this fail?
I present the ’07 Blue Jays.
#1 Starter: Roy Halladay, the definition of an ace. 225 IP, 3.71 ERA.
#2 Starter: A.J. Burnett, inconsistent but sometimes dominating. 165 IP, 3.75 ERA
#3 Starter: Dustin McGowan, electric arm but command problems. 170 IP, 4.08 ERA
#4 Starter: Shaun Marcum, strike throwing innings eater. 159 IP, 4.13 ERA
#5 Starter: Jesse Litsch, good command contact guy. 111 IP, 3.81 ERA.
Toss in a bullpen trio of Jeremy Accardo (2.14 ERA), Scott Downs (2.17 ERA), and Casey Janssen (2.35 ERA), and the Blue Jays pitching staff last year was the prototype for what the pro-Bedard camp wants the Mariners pitching staff to look like. Two dominant guys at the front of the rotation, solid guys at the back end, innings eaters in the middle, and a shutdown bullpen capable of holding leads.
Not surprisingly, the Blue Jays strength in run prevention led to a 4.00 ERA, second in the American League. Since pitching is the name of the game, this strong combination of power arms and depth carried them into the playoffs, right?
Uhh, no. They finished 83-79 with a run differential of +50 runs – solid, but not a real contender, especially not in the American League. Why didn’t they win more games?
Easy – they didn’t score enough runs. Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas, and Alex Rios were good but not great, and while they got strong supporting performances from Matt Stairs and Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells forgot how to hit again and Lyle Overbay was one of the few first baseman alive as bad as Richie Sexson. The lack of production from several line-up spots killed rallies, and their overall reliance on right handed hitters made them an easy matchup for teams with good right handed pitching.
So, lets see – a line-up with several good but not great hitters, some black holes offensively, and an over reliance on RH bats – where have I seen this kind of offense before? Oh, right, in Safeco Field every night.
Seriously, just run through the comparisons in terms of run production.
Catchers: Zaun and Johjima are basically a push
Corner Infielders: Overbay/Glaus and Sexson/Beltre are about as even as you could get.
Middle Infielders: McDonald/Hill and Betancourt/Lopez are pretty even as hitters.
Outfielders: Stairs/Wells/Rios and Ibanez/Ichiro/random RF is pretty close to a push.
DH: Thomas blows Vidro out of the water.
These offenses are basically the same. You could argue that there are minor differences, but nothing drastic enough to eliminate the comparison.
If the Mariners follow the ’07 Blue Jays formula, they’re very likely to replicate the ’07 Blue Jays results – a decent team that is a big step behind the elite clubs in the American League.
Swapping Adam Jones for Erik Bedard pushes the Mariners towards being Toronto West. And, despite the hyperbole about the amazing transformative powers of having two lights out pitchers at the front of your rotation, the formula fails if the team isn’t good enough overall.
And they’re not – the M’s could have made themselves contenders this winter, but instead, they signed Carlos Silva. Making a disastrous trade for Erik Bedard and replacing Adam Jones with the carcass of Luis Gonzalez and his veteran entitlement wouldn’t make them a contender – it would make them a sad organization hoping for a miracle in lieu of a real plan.
Sigh of relief
We got through another one. I’m always shocked at how many times bad deals like Jones-Bedard stall or fail because of weird sticking points (like Omar’s knees).
“I’d like to trade you my house and everything in it, my brand new Dodge Viper with secret lifetime speeding ticket immunity pass, and $100,000 for that disposable pen you have there.”
“You’ll have to throw in those shoes you’re wearing.”
“What, my shoes? Never! Why, I bought these at Costco and they’ve been adequate for six months!”
“No deal unless I get those shoes!”
“Fine! I’ll just keep all my stuff!”
“You do that!”
May this whole thing fall apart similarly, so that years from now we can laugh about the whole thing.
The big news today is the Indians cut a deal to name Jacobs Field “Progressive Field” like the auto insurance company that once called me at o-dark-thirty in the morning because they didn’t understand the concept of time zones.
As several people emailed me to note, it’s at least incongruous that a company named Progressive will now sponsor the stadium of a team that, while run by a progressive front office, has for a logo Chief Wahoo, by far the most embarrassingly racist of any major sports team in America today.
Wheeee!
No news is good news
Day twenty passes. The M’s sign Chris Reitsma to a minor league deal. Yes, that Chris Reitsma. But a minor league deal is not a bad deal, and the streak continues.
New USSM logo
Thanks, Graham!
Car shopping
Let’s say I need a car. My commute’s short, so I take the bus or bike to work as much as I can, but in the winter I frequently need to drive in, and then for errands and whatnot. If I made a list of my needs, it’d be “cheap, runs forever, enough headroom, ridiculous gas mileage, safe”.
Off the top of my head, I’d probably look at the Honda Fit, the Nissan Versa, and a Toyota Prius. They would to different degrees fill the need I’m looking for.
But wait. A Lamborghini Gallardo Spyder calls. I’ve never owned an exotic sports car. It gets ridiculous gas mileage, in a different way of course, it’s safe because it’s so uncomfortable and hard to drive it would never leave the driveway except on sunny weekends for leisurely day trips, it has enough head room, in a sense… and it’s only a bit over $200,000. And insuring it is possible, so that’s good, and I won’t have to put up with it for too long because I’ll wreck it or it’ll explode before a couple years have passed.
All I’d have to do is sell my house and all the stuff in it to live in the cheapest apartment I could find with nothing in it. And I’d have to find a new wife.
No problem, though, right? I’m sure there’s a decent apartment out there waiting for me that only costs $1, because there are more apartments than houses, and the market for houses isn’t that bad anyway. And what’s the total population of women out there — there’s a huge number of candidates. And I didn’t need all that stuff in the house anyway. And if there isn’t a $1 apartment, I’ll live in the car. No problem.
You may think I’m crazy to give up all that and go to all this trouble to get myself something so ridiculously overpriced, but look here:
– Five-liter V10 engine
– 520 horsepower
– 0-60 in negative two seconds
– fully retractable soft-top roof that I’ll never use because I’m in Seattle
The market price for that is over $200,000. If it’s that highly valued, it has to be awesome. Therefore buying one has to be a good move.
KOMO Hot Stove Nuggets of Bavasi widsom
MSB has some comments, I understand.
Adam Jones and Erik Bedard, Quantified
Time is not on my side, so I won’t be able to go into as much detail on this as I would like, but with the Bedard rumors picking up steam again, I figured I should put this out there. What follows is my calculations of the value of Adam Jones and Erik Bedard from a win value standpoint. You don’t have to believe that this is the be-all, end-all of analysis, but if you’re serious about having an opinion on this issue that anyone should care about, you at least have to understand what win value analysis is telling you. If the Mariners aren’t looking at this kind of information (and, let’s be honest, they’re not), they’re not doing enough work to figure out if acquiring Erik Bedard at the cost of Adam Jones is a move worth making.
Here’s the basic concept – every player adds a quantifiable amount of wins to the roster above what could be expected of a league minimum, freely available player. Those wins have tangible economic value – the more wins a player generates, the more they should be paid. But players also cost money in terms of salary, and the difference between their win value and their cost is their net value. We all make these kinds of decisions every day – gas costs $3 a gallon, but it gets me to work so that I can earn $100 a day, so buying gas is a viable economic decision if you have to drive to get to your job unless you live really far away.
So, here’s what the numbers say, based on a conservative estimate of Jones’ abilities (I project him as a league average player this year with small, incremental improvements through 2013, his last year under Mariner control) and a very optimistic estimate of Bedard’s abilities (basically, he retains almost all of his 2007 form, then resigns with the Mariners to a 3 year, $60 million contract after 2009). The variables have all been tilted in favor of Bedard, because I like to present something like the best case scenario for the side I don’t agree with, especially when I think the issue is this cut and dried.
All that said, here are the numbers (I’ll try to post the calculations later when I have time to make a table look decent).
Adam Jones, 2008 net value: $8.7 million
Erik Bedard, 2008 net value: $12.5 million
Adam Jones, 2009 net value: $14.0 million
Erik Bedard, 2009 net value: $9.0 million
Adam Jones, 2008-2013 net value: $61.0 million
Erik Bedard, 2008-2013 net value: $33.1 million (assumes 3 year, $60 million extension after ’09)
In terms of value added to the Mariners franchise over the next six years, it’s not even close. Jones blows Bedard out of the water even in a scenario where Bedard is projected to be the significantly better player (I’ve got the total wins added from ’08-’13 at 17 for Jones and 26 for Bedard). Even if you only look at the next two years, Jones is expected to outvalue Bedard $22.75 million to $21.5 million.
Even if Adam Jones was a free agent after 2009, given their respective abilities and salaries, I wouldn’t trade Adam Jones for Erik Bedard straight up. The fact that the Mariners then control Jones from 2010 to 2013 makes this an obviously horrible trade.
I’m all for acquiring Erik Bedard, and I’d give up practically the whole farm system to get him. But Adam Jones is the kind of player that good organizations just don’t trade. He’s one of the most valuable players in the game, and by himself, more valuable to the club than Erik Bedard.
Eighteen days
As rumors of a horrible, horrible Bedard deal swirl.
Seventeen days without a bad move
Good job team! Let’s see how long we can keep this string up!
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