The Dream Scenario
When I posted my offseason plan, I noted that it was made with the understanding that the front office has real limitations they have to work under – they aren’t allowed to just trade half the roster and pitch the executives on the concept of freely available talent, so I made the suggestions to comply with the structure that Bavasi and the rest of the baseball operations team are working under.
This post, however, ignores all that. This is what I would like to see the Mariners do this winter if there were no executives to yell that we can’t trade the marketable left fielder, no writers penning wishes for a frontline starter everyday, no season ticket holders to placate, no press conferences to deal with, and the front office was just allowed to shape the roster based on baseball decisions without any outside influences. This, of course, isn’t any kind of realistic scenario, but it will show where I see the weaknesses of the team and potential ways to address them.
So, here goes – if Dave controlled the universe and didn’t have to answer to anyone, the offseason would look something like this.
| Lineup | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Ichiro Suzuki | CF | $17,000,000 |
| 2. | Scott Hatteberg | DH | $1,800,000 |
| 3. | Nick Johnson | 1B | $5,500,000 |
| 4. | Adrian Beltre | 3B | $12,000,000 |
| 5. | Geoff Jenkins | RF | $8,000,000 |
| 6. | Kenji Johjima | C | $5,200,000 |
| 7. | Adam Jones | LF | $400,000 |
| 8. | Yuniesky Betancourt | SS | $1,300,000 |
| 9. | Ronnie Belliard | 2B | $1,600,000 |
| Bench | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Ray Durham | Util | $7,500,000 |
| 2. | Willie Bloomquist | Inf | $950,000 |
| 3. | Jamie Burke | C | $400,000 |
| 4. | Wes Helms | 1B/3B | $2,150,000 |
| 5. | Kevin Mench | OF | $2,000,000 |
| Rotation | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | Felix Hernandez | Starter | $500,000 |
| 2. | Miguel Batista | Starter | $9,000,000 |
| 3. | David Wells | Starter | $4,000,000 |
| 4. | Bartolo Colon | Starter | $10,000,000 |
| 5. | Edwin Jackson | Starter | $500,000 |
| Bullpen | Player | Position | Salary |
| 1. | J.J. Putz | Closer | $3,800,000 |
| 2. | Sean Green | RH Setup | $450,000 |
| 3. | Jeremy Affeldt | LH Setup | $3,000,000 |
| 4. | Eric O’Flaherty | Middle | $450,000 |
| 5. | Todd Coffey | Middle | $450,000 |
| 6. | Cha Seung Baek | Long Relief | $450,000 |
Transactions that get us to this roster:
Trade Jarrod Washburn, Raul Ibanez, and Mike Morse to Philadelphia for Wes Helms and Adrian Cardenas
Trade Jose Lopez and Jose Vidro to Washington for Nick Johnson and Ronnie Belliard
Trade Richie Sexson and $4 million in cash to San Francisco for Ray Durham
Trade George Sherrill and Horacio Ramirez to Cincinnati for Scott Hatteberg and Todd Coffey
Trade Wladimir Balentien to Tampa for Edwin Jackson
Sign Geoff Jenkins to a 2 year, $16 million contract
Sign Kevin Mench to a 1 year, $2 million contract
Sign David Wells to a 1 year, $4 million contract
Sign Bartolo Colon to a 1 year, $10 million contract
Sign Jeremy Affeldt to a 3 year, $9 million contract
Quick explanations of why the other teams would make this trade:
Philadelphia adds the LH outfielder they’ve been looking for and another veteran starter to help fulfill Gillick’s old pitcher fetish while only parting with a utility player they don’t need and a prospect who plays the same position as Chase Utley.
Washington gets a toolsy young second baseman and relieves their 1B roster logjam, while Bowden gets a chance to trade Jose Vidro for young players for the second time in as many years.
San Francisco gets a first baseman at basically no cost and opens up second base for Kevin Frandsen.
Cincinnati creates a line-up spot for Joey Votto, continues to improve their bullpen, and gets an extra arm with a pulse for their rotation.
It’s a pretty significant gutting of the roster. Gone is half of the ’07 line-up, including the three DHs and the underperforming second baseman. In their place are a pair of high on-base left-handed first baseman, a slugging left-handed outfielder with range, and a serviceable veteran second baseman to hold down the fort until the shiny new second base prospect is ready in a few years.
On the pitching side of the ledger, the calls for a frontline starter are ignored, and the rotation is filled with two overweight question marks and an Australian kid with very little experience in the rotation. However, the key isn’t the three names in the rotation – it’s the guys who are still around, ready to take their jobs should anyone fail. Still in the organization are Ryan-Rowland Smith, Cha Seung Baek, Brandon Morrow, Ryan Feierabend, and Robert Rohrbaugh. The M’s would go to camp with 10 guys potentially available to break camp as a starting pitcher and to fill in for the inevitable nagging injuries that the new rotund pitchers will have to work through.
This team, while not perfect and filled with potential injury issues, would have a solid chance of taking the division if certain things break right – Nick Johnson’s recovery goes well and he plays a full season, either Colon or Wells are healthy and effective, Rowland-Smith or one of the young kids solidifies another rotation spot, and Affeldt/Green/O’Flaherty/Coffey can replicate some of the terrific performances the pen got from Sherrill and company in ’07. It’s all within the realm of possibility, and does give the team something like a 20-25% chance of knocking off the Angels and stealing the division title.
The beauty of this roster, however, is the 2009 team. About $33 million of the budget is coming off the books after the season, giving the team significant financial flexibility going into the future while retaining the core young talent to build around going forward. The team creates potential opportunities for Jeff Clement and Brandon Morrow to demand playing time through strong performances in Tacoma, keeps all it’s valuable trade chips for a midseason deal if the team is showing signs of being a contender, and realigns the organizational talent to better fit together and complement each other’s strengths and weaknesses.
The defense is good (potentially terrific, depending on how Nick Johnson moves after a year off with a broken leg), the offense is solid and balanced with both LH and RH hitters who can get on base and drive the ball into the gaps (while also being perfectly setup to take advantages of platoon strengths), the bullpen is still good, and the rotation is good enough. No, it’s not filled with a bunch of big name Cy Young contenders, but for once, it’d be nice to see the team stop obsessing over the quality of a couple of pitchers and figure out that teams win baseball games, not starting pitchers.
Of course, none of this is going to happen, and a lot of it couldn’t happen even if the front office wanted to be so radical, but it is at least nice to dream every once in a while.
Kuroda to Dodgers
Alternate headline: “M’s lose out on Kuroda, plan franchise suicide.”
Hiroki Kuroda is signing with the Dodgers for three years and a reported $36 million, taking less money from L.A. than the M’s offered. I think they probably dodged a bullet here, personally – $12+ million per year for Kuroda just has no upside and a whole lot of downside.
However, since the M’s are intent on bringing in two veteran starters this winter and now have to go to Plan B, we’re going to here talk about two things – trading for Erik Bedard and signing one of the remaining mediocrities to a stupid contract. Just say no to Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse, and pitchers of that ilk – the M’s simply don’t need any more overpaid pitch to contact veteran starters, despite the stupid cries about the requirements of upgrading the rotation.
I didn’t want Kuroda, but honestly, I have no faith in this organization to have any kind of real backup plan that isn’t simply panic based. I fully expect the rest of the offseason to be a total disaster. It doesn’t have to be, of course; Bartolo Colon’s still sitting out there, and they could actually work on improving the rest of their roster as well, but unfortunately, we don’t root for an organization that wise.
M’s deal Broussard, keep HoRam
Yesterday was the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players or let them become free agents. The Mariners decided that Ben Broussard didn’t fit in their plans for 2008 and would have non-tendered him, but the Rangers stepped in and gave them a C- prospect so that they wouldn’t have to bid for him as a free agent. Broussard should get a decent opportunity in Texas, and the M’s get something instead of nothing, though Tim Hulett is about as close to nothing as you can get back in a trade. If he continues to develop and everything goes well, he’ll be a backup infielder. Hulett’s lack of a future isn’t any kind of indictment on the M’s trading abilities, though – there just wasn’t much of a market for Broussard.
On the other hand, the M’s decided to keep Horacio Ramirez, apparently believing their own lies that he was just confused and poorly coached last year. You have to wonder what it will take for this organization to realize how to evaluate pitching talent correctly – Horacio Ramirez is a Triple-A arm, and that should be pretty obvious to anyone who watches baseball with even a casual eye. This was obvious last year when the M’s traded for him, and his horrendous year in Seattle didn’t make him any more valuable. That they’re willing to give a replacement level pitcher millions of dollars to try to resurrect some potential he’s never had is just a continuing sign that the Mariners don’t have any better of an idea of what makes a good pitcher now than they did twelve months ago.
Kuroda to Dodgers? Who knows
Conficting reports this morning on the status of Horoki Kuroda – the Kyodo News says he’s going to sign with the Dodgers, while Geoff Baker says not so fast – we’ll find out shortly either way.
I’ve been ambivalent about Kuroda since the start, and honestly, I’ll feel the same way about this news. Kuroda isn’t particularly impressive to me, but this is a pretty unimpressive crop of available pitchers this winter. If losing out on Kuroda means that we throw $50 million at Kyle Lohse, than this is terrible news. If it means we throw $10 million at Bartolo Colon, then it’s awesome. But we don’t know which way the organization is going to go if they really do lose out on Kuroda, so I find it hard to have an opinion about him potentially going to LA one way or another.
M’s Select Knuckler in Rule 5 Draft
The Rule 5 draft was this morning as the wrapup to the winter meetings. Last year, the Mariners grabbed Sean White, and this year, it was R.A. Dickey. Dickey was a former 1st round pick who never made it as a normal pitcher, so he’s taken up the knuckleball as a way to try to have a major league career. He threw 170 innings for Nashville in the PCL last year with typical knuckler results – lots of walks, not many strikeouts, but a lot of groundballs and weak contact, leading to a decent ERA.
Maybe Dickey will get to spring training, be lousy, and the M’s will be out $25,000 when they return him to the Twins. But, I still like this move – having a knuckler in camp fighting for a spot on the pitching staff will be fun, and if the M’s decided to use him in relief, we could see all kinds of hilarity when he comes in to replace Felix Hernandez.
Jose Guillen to get suspended for steroid, HGH purchases
Wow. From ESPN:
The Major League Baseball Players Association is negotiating with MLB officials on a possible 10- to 15-day suspension for outfielder Jose Guillen for his reported involvement in the purchase of steroids and human growth hormone, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney on Wednesday.
If that’s right, you have to wonder how much that affected the Guillen extension talks this year – we know they were all but signed for some time, certainly until the Byrnes contract. Did it play a part in their decision to let Guillen walk?
BTW, I don’t know if this is true:
Seattle declined its $9 million option and Guillen turned down a $5 million player option, receiving a $500,000 buyout.
If I remember, the $9m option was mutual: both the team and Guillen would have had to accept it, and then if the team turned it down, Guillen had an option to extend for one year at $5m, and if he turned that down, he couldn’t get the buyout.
But when I try to look up the details, I’m just finding a lot of conflicting information.
Win Now? Do This.
As I mentioned in this morning’s post, the Mariners are in win now mode – coming off an 88 win season and with jobs still on the line, building for 2009 is not an option. However, as the Tigers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Indians continue to set the bar for just what a legitimate contender looks like, the M’s have some serious ground to cover if they’re going to actually try to win it all next year. Johan Santana wouldn’t have been enough. Erik Bedard won’t be enough. This team needs to make some significant improvements at multiple positions if they’re actually going to make a run for the pennant. (Note – I don’t support this philosophy, but realize that the organization won’t do what I want them to, so at least we can try to help them do the best while pursuing a suboptimal roster building approach).
So, here’s a totally made up series of moves (please don’t call these rumors or email beat writers asking how likely these moves are – they’re fictional creations from Dave Land) that could potentially help the Mariners accomplish their goal of having to be taken at least semi-seriously in the A.L. next year.
1. Trade Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow and Jose Lopez to Baltimore for Erik Bedard and Brian Roberts.
The M’s aren’t going to get Bedard without surrendering Adam Jones, but it doesn’t make any sense to just make that move and not fix the rest of the roster. By going from Lopez to Roberts, the team takes a significant step forward at second base; Roberts is one of those ridiculously underappreciated players in the game, because his contributions (lots of doubles, walks, and good defense) are generally undervalued among talent evaluators. Like Bedard, Roberts is under contract through 2009 at a below market salary, and is just 29 years old. While the team would be trading a lot of future value, they’d be getting two guys in their primes, both under club control for two more years.
If you’re going to trade Adam Jones, this is the kind of package you have to get back.
2. Sign Geoff Jenkins to a multiyear deal.
If Jones is traded, this is almost non-negotiable; the team would have to replace him with a quality defensive outfielder or we’ll just see a repeat of last year’s debacle in the outfield.
3. Sign Bartolo Colon to a one year deal.
We’ve talked about this – it’s a good idea, and if he goes into the season as your #5 starter behind Bedard, Felix, Batista, and Washburn, the downside if he gets hurt is limited (Rowland-Smith and Baek are still around), and the upside is still there for him to move into the upper half of the rotation, removing the team’s need to potentially throw Washburn to the wolves in a playoff series.
Ideally, they’d go beyond even these moves, dealing either Sexson or Vidro and replacing Ibanez with a real outfielder as well, but that might be asking for too much. If they’re going to get serious in a deal for Bedard, however, this is the path they need to commit to going down. Bedard and Kuroda is just not enough to make them real contenders. This team needs more than that.
Adding Roberts and Jenkins to the offense would add two more bats that can swing from the left side and are a good fit for Safeco Field, while also hopefully keeping the defense at least passable, rather than the disaster it was last year.
I’d still rather the team not trade Jones in some far fetched attempt to grasp at glory, but if they’re going to do so, at least we can hope that they’ll do something like this. Don’t settle for just adding a pitcher or two – either get serious, make the team good, or hold your cards.
Winter Meetings, Day Three
48 hours into the winter meetings and the news continues to come out of cities besides Seattle. As mentioned below, the Tigers just launched themselves right back into the discussion in terms of AL Contenders with their trade yesterday. While the Mariners won’t think this way (after all, jobs are on the line), it’s really quite clear that the 2008 Mariners just have no chance of being in the top tier of American League clubs.
The Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, and Tigers have essentially locked themselves into fighting over position as the four best teams in baseball. The dropoff between those clubs and the fifth best team in the game is pretty staggering. They have, for all intents and purposes, taken any chance the AL West had of winning the wild card and thrown it in a wood chipper. The only way for the Mariners to make the playoffs next year is to win the division, and even if they can do that, they’re looking at having to beat two beheamoths just to even get to the World Series.
In an ideal world, where the franchise wasn’t being run on a win-or-lose-your-job mandate, and the front office could make decisions based on what is best for the franchise, the M’s would just fold up their 2008 tents and become sellers. They are three or four all-star type players away from competing with the big boys in the A.L., and they simply don’t have the resources to make the type of upgrades necessary to get themselves in a legitimate position to win postseason games.
But, that isn’t the reality of the situation. The front office doesn’t have the ability to make that kind of decision – the minute they start selling, they’re writing their own pink slips. This franchise is in win now mode – unfortunately, so are five other American League teams, and they’re all far better at it than the M’s.
So, today, we’ll see talk shift to Erik Bedard, as the M’s try to make a splash and impress some people. After yesterday’s trade, I’m now just hoping that we get through the rest of this winter without destroying the future, because the idea of winning it all in ’08 seems about as likely as Steve Kelley writing an entire paragraph.
The Most Fun Trade Ever, Part Two
Okay, so this qualifies as something better than yesterday.
The Tigers are sending their entire farm system, along with the draft rights to every player they pick for the next 1,000 years, a partridge, and a pear tree to the Florida Marlins for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.
It’s the blockbuster to end all blockbusters. The Tigers instantly thrust themselves right back into the top tier of the American League superpowers, while the Marlins acquire a ridiculous haul of talent not seen since the Herschel Walker trade.
This deal makes the Tigers better in a time where their window to win is not huge. Detroit has a significant core of their roster who won’t be helping them win for much longer or are about to head into decline, so they’re in a position where trading future help for current help makes a lot of sense. Miguel Cabrera, while not much defensively, is a hall of fame hitter heading into the prime of his career. You can’t acquire a player that good and not get better.
Did they overpay? Yea, probably. My love affair with Andrew Miller is long and well documented, and while I think Cameron Maybin is a little overhyped, he’s just terrific instead of stupendously awesome. The other four prospects account for, basically, every last bit of talent in the Tigers system besides Rick Porcello (who they aren’t allowed to trade yet). It’s a massive haul for the Marlins, and gives them some chances to realign their roster to help alleviate some of their defensive deficiencies.
From the Mariners perspective, Cabrera’s not an Angel, so we should all be thrilled about that.
Winter Meetings, Day Two
A fairly boring day one of the meetings. Let’s hope today provides a little more excitement. Here’s what we know after 24 hours.
1. With the M’s out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes, they’re now pursuing Erik Bedard – he’s not quite as good as Johan, but he’s still a terrific pitcher, plus he’s under club control through 2009. However, just as with Santana, the price is exhorbitant, and I’m still of the opinion that the Mariners aren’t one pitcher away from being a legit contender.
2. The Edwin Jackson rumors didn’t last long, as it appears the M’s were only offering scraps to Tampa, who are too smart to give up a quality young arm for pieces of questionable value like Ben Broussard or Rob Johnson. If the M’s want to get a guy like Jackson, they’re going to have to part with a talented player in return – Wladimir Balentien actually makes a lot of sense for both clubs, especially now that the Rays have traded Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes in the last week.
3. Apparently, Hiroki Kuroda’s first name isn’t Hideki. Whoops. M’s still seem like the frontrunners for his services.
4. Also, Jose Guillen signed with the Royals for 3 years and $36 million. Because the M’s declined to offer arbitration, they don’t get any draft pick compensation. Bavasi gave the typical crap answer about the team not wanting the exposure of him potentially accepting arbitration and wrecking their budget with a $12-$15 million award down the line. However, that’s a load of B.S.
The actual exposure the team had was 1/6th of whatever they projected his potential arbitration award to be, thanks to a clause in the CBA that allows teams to release players prior to March 15th and only be liable for 16% of the salary they were given in arbitration. So, if the M’s thought Guillen would accept abritration and they really didn’t want him back, they could simply release him by paying him something around $2 million to just go away. That’s their real exposure.
And really, what were the odds of Guillen accepting arbitration? 10%? 20%? No way it was higher than that. A 20% risk of a $2 million exposure is about $400,000 in risk. The team punted a supplemental first round pick because $400,000 scared them away. What a bunch of pansies.