Game 66, Mariners at Cardinals
Vargas vs Garcia, 5:05 pm.
As the M’s play the final game in their 20 games in 20 days stretch, Wak has either admitted the season is over or has decided that his regulars need a break. Both are true, actually, so either way, the line-up changes make some sense, though of course the batting order is still crazy. I imagine flyballing Vargas would prefer to have Gutierrez out in center field tonight as well. Oh well, in the end, none of it matters anymore.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Bradley, LF
Lopez, 3B
Josh Wilson, SS
Langerhans, 1B
Alfonzo, C
Saunders, CF
Vargas, P
2010 Everett Aquasox Preview
I’m not hot on writing Aquasox previews, because as much as love games at Everett Memorial, I realize that this early in the season, the roster is only going to feature guys who signed quickly, lesser short-season entries from last year, and various players promoted from Venezuela or the Dominican Republic. That’s this roster in a nutshell, but on top of that it also lacks a bit of star power that you’d ordinarily expect from the Latin American entries, fewer early round signings, and the most interesting player on the whole team is probably the closer. Nonetheless, this is what we have to work with for the moment, and I’ll note changes as the wraps get rolling with them. Who knows, the team might end up being good later on. Let’s get to it then…
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Game 65, Mariners at Cardinals
Rowland-Smith vs Suppan, 5:05 pm.
Believe it or not, RRS has a better ERA than his opponent by over a full run. Yeah, this isn’t exactly a stellar pitching match-up. Both Suppan (5.06 xFIP) and Hyphen (5.82 xFIP) are better than their ERA, but that’s kind of like saying that an enema is better than kidney stones. This is an ugly match-up.
In not-surprising-at-all news, Ian Snell was designated for assignment today, and the Mariners purchased the contract of Brian Sweeney to take his spot in the bullpen. Sweeney’s not any kind of prospect, but he does one thing that Snell does not do, and that’s throw strikes. His stuff isn’t great, but he pounds the zone, and that will at least endear him to the coaching staff more than the guy he’s replacing.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Kotchman, 1B
Johnson, C
Rowland-Smith, P
Trading Cliff Lee
This post deals with where Lee might end up. If you’re interested in what his trade value is, check out this post at FanGraphs.
With the season basically over and focus shifting to the future, there’s one obvious big story left in this season – what will the Mariners get for Cliff Lee?
This is essentially the last drama of 2010 for Mariners fans. At some point in the next six weeks, the Mariners will trade Lee. Don’t buy into the smokescreen about keeping him around for the draft picks – at least one team will step up and make an offer that gives Jack Zduriencik significantly more value than he will get from keeping Lee and letting him walk at the end of the season.
Who will that team be? Well, the easiest way to guess is good old process of elimination. First, let’s throw out all the obvious non-contenders – that eliminates Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, both Chicagos, Washington, Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Arizona. Lee won’t be going to any of those teams.
Among the teams that are currently contenders, let’s cross off cities where Lee doesn’t make sense – Tampa Bay, Florida, Colorado, Cincinnati, Atlanta, San Diego, Toronto, Philadelphia, Oakland, and San Francisco fall into that category. If any of those teams are buyers in July, they’ll be buying someone else.
That leaves the teams that could potentially be interested in Lee – both New Yorks, Boston, Minnesota, Detroit, Texas, both Los Angeles’, and St. Louis. Those are your ten potential destinations for Cliff Lee.
So, who’s the best fit? Well, as we talked about last week, the Mariners have a lot of holes on their 2011 roster, and they don’t have a lot of ways to fill those holes with limited budget space this winter. The Lee trade is going to be their best bet to get a player or two who they can slide right into next year’s team, and who could be a productive player almost immediately. I don’t think the M’s are going to be hunting for a bevy of A-ball prospects in this deal, no matter what their upside is – the emphasis is going to be on getting someone (or a couple of someones) who can get to Seattle in a hurry.
That makes St. Louis pretty unlikely. They simply don’t have a high level premium prospect to give up that will make the Mariners pull the trigger. You could probably say the same about Detroit and the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s tough to imagine any of those three teams being able to put together a package of players that the Mariners would really fall in love with. There are good prospects in each system, but they’re not the right kinds of prospects, and there aren’t enough of them.
Of the remaining six, I’d call Boston a pretty big longshot as well. Theo has consistently sat out of big pitcher sweepstakes, determining the cost was more than he wants to pay in young talent. The Red Sox farm system isn’t in great shape either, so their only hope to get Jack Z to listen would be to include someone like Casey Kelly, who they’ve been adamant that they’re not trading. Their pitching staff is pretty good anyway. I just don’t see it happening, though it potentially could, so they go to the bottom of the final six.
Coming in not too far ahead of the Red Sox in the longshot category would be both AL West teams – the Rangers and Angels. While both could really use Lee in their rotation and have the chips to make an interesting offer, inter-division trades of this magnitude are pretty rare. Teams are generally loathe to give their competitors players who can come back and hurt them long term. While both teams would love to have Lee, they don’t want their star prospects beating them 19 times a year for the next six years. It might not be rational, but it’s how baseball works, and it makes it unlikely that the M’s will deal Lee to another AL West team.
So now, we’re down to three – the New Yorks and Minnesota. Last week’s speculation from Ken Rosenthal about Lee’s eventual destination has made a lot of people assume that the Yankees are the favorites, but I’d make them the least likely of this trio, honestly. It’s fine and dandy to suggest that Lee would make any rotation better, and while its true, its less true with the Yankees than any other team in baseball. Right now, their playoff rotation is Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte-Hughes. Yeah, they could put Lee in the rotation and bump Hughes back to the pen to strengthen their relief corps, but is that the kind of upgrade that is going to make a big enough difference for Brian Cashman to give up a blue chip prospect? And we haven’t even mentioned Javier Vazquez, whom the Yankees liked enough to give up one of their top young arms for this winter. They’re not just going to discard any chance of him pitching meaningful innings in November no matter how badly he started the season.
So, really, I see two teams that make sense on most levels – the Mets and the Twins.
The Mets have the glaring need, with only three big league starters on their roster and a GM whose job is almost certainly on the line. Omar Minaya has shown a willingness to give up a bushel of prospects for an arm he believes could put him over the top, as he did when he traded Lee (along with Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips) to Cleveland for Bartolo Colon. The Mets have spent a lot of money to try and win, and yet, they are one starting pitcher short of being a legitimate contender. Lee would give them a real chance at grabbing the NL East title and playing well in October. And in Jenrry Mejia, they have the kind of dynamic young pitching prospect who the Mariners would see as a valuable long term piece who could also potentially be part of the 2011 rotation. The Mets could put together a strong offer for Lee built around Mejia. There’s a potential deal to be made there.
However, if I’m Jack Zduriencik, I’m praying every night that the Twins get heavily involved. The fit is almost perfect.
Lee is everything the Twins love in a pitcher. They groom a never ending supply of strike throwers who get outs despite not having big velocity, and Lee is the quintessential version of that kind of arm. Paired with Francisco Liriano, the Twins become a lethal post-season team. And, they have what the 2011 Mariners need – young, cheap, major league ready starting pitching.
The Twins could create a package for Lee built around either Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey that would certainly pique the Mariners interest. Rather than getting a prospect that you hope develops into something, the Mariners would be able to slide either of them right into the middle of their rotation, filling a big hole on the 2011 roster but providing future value as well. In addition, the Twins have a quality young catching prospect named Wilson Ramos who doesn’t have a future in Minneapolis thanks to the presence of Joe Mauer, and while he’s not that much different than Adam Moore, he’d offer the M’s another option at a position that has been a huge problem since Jack got to Seattle. A package of Ramos and a second prospect, along with either Slowey or Baker, is the kind of deal that the Mariners simply couldn’t turn down.
The Twins have the depth to make that kind of move without crippling their future, and could capitalize on the primes of Mauer and Morneau with a legitimate World Series run with Cliff Lee in their rotation. It makes the most sense of any deal possible. Lee was made to pitch for the Twins, and they have exactly the kinds of players that the Mariners are going to want in return.
So, don’t be surprised if Lee ends up in pinstripes this fall, but not the Bronx version. Lee to Minnesota makes sense on a lot of levels, and you have to think that both teams see the same things we do. There’s a win-win deal here where both teams benefit, and that’s why I’d put Minnesota as the favorites to land Cliff Lee this summer.
Game 64, Mariners at Cardinals
French vs Wainwright, 4:09 pm.
Welcome to the rotation, Mr. French – now meet Mr. Pujols. Good luck.
In a single game, anything can happen, but this is something like the mismatch to end all mismatches. Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the Mariners are extremely unlikely to get much in the way of offense against him. Meanwhile, Luke French has to use his pitch-to-contact approach to try and get guys like Pujols, Matt Holiday, and Ryan Ludwick out. This could get really ugly.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Carp, 1B
Johnson, C
French, P
Minor League Wrap (6/7-13/10)
Just so everyone has it on their calendars, the Aquasox season starts on Friday (homestand starts on Monday). I should have a preview up that morning, if not a little earlier.
To the jump!
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Game 63, Mariners at Padres
Richard vs Hernandez, 1:05 pm.
Happy (?) Felix Day.
Yeah, I got nothing.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Carp, 1B
Johnson, C
Hernandez, P
Game 62, Mariners at Padres
Lee vs LeBlanc, 5:35 pm.
Cliff Lee takes the mound for the Mariners, so they have a chance to win. They’ve pummeled Wade LeBlanc before, but Petco helps him a lot.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 3B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Carp, 1B
Rob Green, C
Lee, P
Game 61, Mariners at Padres
Vargas vs Correia, 7:05 pm.
At least San Diego is physically incapable of scoring 10 runs in a game. Petco should at least keep this one close, which will be a nice change of pace from the last few days.
Line-up experiments come to an end.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 2B
Gutierrez, CF
Lopez, 2B
Bradley, LF
Josh Wilson, SS
Kotchman, 1B
Alfonzo, C
Vargas, P
The 2011 Mariners
2010 is in the books at this point. Yes, miracles can happen, and the team theoretically could rip off 65 wins and steal the division title by a hair, but you can’t make decisions based on the expectation of a miracle, and the Mariners have some decisions to make. When a season is a lost cause, the silver lining is the chance to take a look at some guys who wouldn’t get a real shot when a team was trying to win. You can start to look at your roster with an eye towards the following year and try to figure out what you have and what you need. So let’s do just that.
2011 Salary Obligatoins, via Cot’s Contracts:
C: Moore/Johnson – Needs Upgrade.
1B: Carp – Needs Upgrade
2B: Figgins/Ackley – No Move Necessary
SS: Wilson/Wilson – Question Mark
3B: Lopez/Figgins – Question Mark
LF: Saunders – Question Mark
CF: Gutierrez – No Move Necessary
RF: Ichiro – No Move Necessary
DH: Bradley – Question Mark
Bench: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#1: Felix Hernandez – No Move Necessary
#2: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#3: Empty – Needs Upgrade
#4: Doug Fister – No Move Necessary
#5: Jason Vargas – No Move Necessary
CL: David Aardsma – Question Mark
Setup: Brandon League – No Move Necessary
Setup: Shawn Kelley – No Move Necessary
Setup: Mark Lowe – Question Mark
Middle: Ryan Rowland-Smith – Question Mark
Middle: Empty – Question Mark
Long: Luke French – No Move Necessary
Out of 25 roster spots, we’re not even able to label 10 of them as positions that the club doesn’t need to worry about filling. That’s not good, especially considering that the team is not going to have much money to spend this winter. Current obligations for 2010 come to just under $70 million, and that doesn’t include salaries for any of the arbitration eligible guys the team will want back – most notably, Jason Vargas, David Aardsma, Brandon League, Mark Lowe, and Ryan Rowland-Smith. Based on expected raises, you have to pencil that group in for somewhere around $10 million.
That gives the team an $80 million payroll before they go shopping. We have to assume the budget will be in the low $90 millions again next year, giving the team just over $10 million to spend. That doesn’t go very far when you need two starting pitchers, a starting first baseman, a catcher who can play at least half the time, a whole new bench, possibly a designated hitter, and maybe another arm in the bullpen.
Jack Zduriencik is not going to be able to go out and fix all of this team’s problems in free agency. He might not be able to fix any of them in free agency. This team is going to have to make some shrewd trades and get production from low salary guys. There aren’t many in the high minors ready to step in and contribute, so they’re going to have to be acquired from other sources. And that’s where the rest of this season can give the Mariners a leg up.
There are quite a few players kicking around Triple-A who could potentially help the Mariners next year, but need a shot to show what they can do in the big leagues. The Mariners now have approximately four months to give those guys an audition. The longer they wait, hoping for a miracle, the less time they have to find guys who can stake a claim on next year’s roster. That’s why they shouldn’t sit around and wait until July 31st before they start making moves.
Call the Royals about Kila Ka’aihue (26-year-old 1B/DH hitting .326/.503/.617 in Triple-A), and try to pry away Alex Gordon while you’re at it. See if you can get Trevor Plouffe from Minnesota or Tyler Greene from St. Louis to offer another young, cheap option at shortstop. Give Chris Resop a shot to show what he can do on the mound. These are the kinds of players the team will need production from in 2011, and they don’t have enough good internal options to give the kids from Tacoma a shot. Mike Carp is not good enough to be this team’s first baseman next year – not if they want to try to win. Garrett Olson isn’t going to fill one of the holes in the rotation. These guys are serviceable role players at best, and this is a roster that needs more than that.
The organization has a lot of work to do if they want to be a contender next year. They can’t wait until the off-season to go to work. They should start tomorrow. 2010 is officially over, and the team is now playing for 2011.