Two Interesting Developments
Two notes from the AL today that could have a ripple effect on the M’s.
The White Sox offered Abreu $8 million on a one year deal, which probably puts him out of range for the M’s. Chicago is a great place to hit, especially in the summer, and if he’s looking to re-establish some all-star numbers and get a big payday next winter, he’s got a better chance of doing that in Chicago than in Seattle. That means the M’s would probably have to spend around ~$10 million to land Abreu, and given the available alternatives and their respective costs, that doesn’t make much sense.
However, a new, lower cost option may be opening up. The Orioles signed Ty Wigginton to a two year deal at just over $3 million per season. Wigginton best fits as a 1B/DH, but the O’s already have handed Aubrey Huff the first base job and moved Luke Scott to DH to make room for Felix Pie in left field. Scott isn’t thrilled with the idea of DH’ing, and he shouldn’t be – he’s an above average defensive corner outfielder, and his skillset makes him more valuable in the OF than being used as a bat only guy.
So, the Orioles should have some incentives to move Scott to a team that could use a lower cost, left-handed outfielder with some power and a decent glove. Like, say, the Mariners. He’s not an all-star, and at 30 years, he’s not going to get much better, but he’s a solid player who would help the M’s offense more than he would hurt their defense. At $2.5 million for 2009 (and arb eligible for 2010 and 2011), he’s a lower cost option than guys like Abreu or Swisher.
So, the Abreu option might be going away while the Luke Scott option emerges as a possibility.
No Thanks
John Hickey gives us a blog post with some good news mixed with bad news.
Perhaps that call will come from Minnesota. Sources suggest that the Mariners have been trying to clear some room on the payroll by trading left-handed starter Jarrod Washburn to the Twins.
The Twins might take Washburn? Sweet!
One deal discussed in the last week or so involved sending Washburn and catcher Jeff Clement to Minnesota in exchange for 23-year-old outfielder Delmon Young.
Ummm… no thanks. Delmon Young could be a nice buy low candidate as his stock has taken a huge hit the last two years, but the Mariners are a bad, bad fit for him. A right-handed, bad defensive OF, he has upside, but is not so much better than the sum of the M’s current group of young OFs (Wladimir Balentien, Greg Halman, Michael Saunders, Dennis Raben, Ezequiel Carrera) that they should be trading Clement to add to the deepest position in the organization. When looking at a one versus the field proposition, you’re almost always better off taking the field – in fact, I’d argue that it’s not just possible but likely that one of the five players listed in the parenthesis will be a better major league player going forward than Delmon Young.
Making this deal would do a lot of things, and most of them not good. It would make the ’09 team worse both offensively and defensively, skew the line-up even further to the RH side, block off the path to the majors for some of the team’s better prospects, and generally muck up a lot of the good work that’s been done this winter.
This rumor doesn’t make sense for the Mariners, and it doesn’t really make sense for the Twins either. See, they have this guy named Mauer that isn’t going anywhere, so they’d be acquiring Clement as a DH, which he wouldn’t be particularly happy with. And he’s not so great a hitting prospect that teams should be crawling all over themselves to acquire Clement The DH.
So, I’m just going to write this one off as one of those strange rumors that isn’t going anywhere. It’s just not a deal that makes sense, and thankfully, with this new front office, we can feel safe that not every rumor that would make the team worse will come to fruition.
The Template For Success in 2009
We’ve talked a lot so far this winter about how well we think the new regime has handled the roster, rebuilding with quality young major league talents, finding low cost players with real upside, and aligning the team so that the defense complements the pitching staff. However, questions still remain about how the team is going to score runs, and ultimately, win games. Can you contend with a shortage of offense, a good defense, and mediocre pitching?
The 2003 Mariners say that you can. Six years ago, the Mariners ran out a line-up of defense-first position players and surrounded them with an average rotation and turned it into 93 wins. Seriously, take a look at some of the production the M’s got that year.
Catcher (Wilson/Davis): .235/.276/.354 in 610 PA
Third Base (Cirillo/McLemore): .243/.321/.340 in 654 PA
Left Field (Winn/McLemore): .277/.330/.401 in 687 PA
First Base (Olerud): .265/.361/.389 in 701 PA
The Mariners got a combined 42 home runs and a .372 SLG% from those four positions. They had a first baseman with no power, a left fielder with no power, and got nothing offensively from either catcher or third base. Ichiro had the third highest slugging percentage among the starting nine. Ichiro!
The offense was essentially Bret Boone (.387 wOBA), Edgar Martinez (.386 wOBA), five guys right around league average (Cameron, Ichiro, Winn, Olerud, and Guillen), and two huge holes. The team hit 139 home runs, 13th out of 14 AL teams, and only 2 HR ahead of the least powerful team, Tampa Bay.
Despite the lack of power and only two guys who could claim to have had legitimately good offensive seasons, the team scored 795 runs. Boone going nuts and Edgar’s last stand, mixed with a bunch of guys who didn’t have any power but didn’t make a lot of outs, along with two black holes in the line-up added up to an above average offense.
However, the strength of the team wasn’t at the plate, but instead, at the field. They were the best defensive team in baseball, racking up a +52 UZR. Thanks to their outstanding gloves, the team had the second best ERA in the American League despite a pretty mediocre pitching staff. The rotation just wasn’t that good – Pineiro (3.93 FIP), Moyer (4.01 FIP), Meche (4.79 FIP), Garcia (4.82 FIP), and Franklin (5.17 FIP) comprised a group of a pair of decent mid-rotation starters and three guys who were on the fringes of being bounced from the rotation entirely.
However, the M’s got a 3.92 ERA from the rotation despite their 4.54 FIP. The Winn-Cameron-Ichiro outfield made mediocre pitchers look excellent, and the team kept runs off the board as well as any in the American League. By only allowing 3.9 runs per game, the M’s won a lot of low scoring contests, making up with their gloves what they lacked with their bats.
13th in the league in home runs. A 4.54 FIP from their starting pitchers. 93 wins.
The 2009 Mariners aren’t going to score 800+ runs. They might not score 700+ if the team doesn’t land one more quality hitter. But, if they commit to running out a Chavez-Gutierrez-Ichiro outfield and the middle infield gives some better glove performances (either by improvement or by more innings for Cedeno), this defense has a chance to be very, very good. The pitching on this team is better than the pitching that was the ’03 staff. There’s run prevention talent on this roster.
If the Mariners are going to contend this year, it’s going to look a lot like 2003.
Kotchman, Braves reach deal
1y, $2.85m
Other than that, I don’t think anything’s really going on.
Peace out
Hitters
Guillermo Quiroz
Ron Wright
Raul Chavez
Arquimedez Pozo
Pitchers
Zak Shinall
Luis DeLeon
If you didn’t figure it out already, that’s a list of players that only played one game for the Mariners. It’s a fitting parallel because after joining the USSM crew just a few months ago, I already have to say goodbye.
There is a silver lining, however. The reason I won’t be able to write here anymore is because I’ve been hired by Baseball America! After six months as an editorial intern, they offered me a job and accepting it was a no-brainer. I’ve absolutely loved it out here and am excited to be on board full time, covering the draft.
Anybody want to buy my car? I’ll even throw in the “I’d Rather Be Reading USSMariner.com” license plate frame!
The Abreu Rumors
Larry Stone has all the info in the piece he did about the Mike Sweeney signing. Lots of interesting stuff in there. Go read it.
Essentially, the M’s have told Abreu that they’re interested in a one year deal with him, but don’t have the money in the budget to meet his asking price right now. They’d have to move some salary in order to bring him in. The obvious candidate to move would be Jarrod Washburn, as you’re not going to be able to get anyone to take any real part of the salaries due to Batista or Silva. You’ll have to eat some of Washburn’s salary to move him, but not all of it, so he’s almost certainly the guy they’re trying to move.
Realistically, though, in this environment, the M’s aren’t going to be able to free up more than about $5 to $7 million by moving Washburn. Jon Garland, a better pitcher in just about every regard (not that that’s high praise), just signed for $8.75 million with Arizona. With guys like Randy Wolf still on the market and likely having to settle for one year deals at less than $10 million, the M’s just won’t be able to move Washburn without eating some salary or giving up a valuable asset along with Washburn that would make some other team value the package at $10 million.
So, to be honest, I wouldn’t hold your breath waiting for Abreu. There are teams interested in him that don’t have to trade a a non-asset in order to clear room for him, and I can’t imagine that the M’s offer will be so much better than the offers he already has on the table that he’ll sit around and wait for the M’s to make the necessary move to get him.
It’s clear, however, that the M’s are pursuing a LH OF/DH bat, and that they’re not going to settle for Ken Griffey Jr unless they have to. That, in and of itself, is good news.
The day in Marinerdom, Jan 29
On Craigslist today, you can find not one but two David Segui autographed bats.
Went to a signing in puyallup while still played for the Mariners. Autograph are on a limited edition bat, number 25 and 30 of 100 made. No Coa because obtained directly at signing. Asking $15 each or $20 for both
So this bat’s been kicking around for nine, ten years with David Segui’s signature on them. They were sitting in a closet, presumably, as his career fell apart and he subsequently got caught up/found out for his steroid use… but still they remained, waiting. In June (see the photo stamp, and let’s figure it’s real) they were dragged out, laid out on the kind of carpet Quadrant Homes slapped down on every house they stamped out during the boom years, and captured on film. It may have been the first time they saw light in five years or more.
Why $15 for one, or $20 for both? You could use them for batting practice at that price. Heck, you could be like Bud Selig and start your novelty bench construction with these two, moving on to other short-time also-were players whose signed merchandise goes for well under what the generic sells for.
In a decade, who on these last few teams are we going to seem valuable enough to not just throw out but still result in a huge cost discount? Jose Guillen seems the best candidate.
Or for $50, there’s some guy selling chunks of the Kingdome. That price is per piece. They probably still smell faintly of the urine the place absorbed in its 24-year life.
What is it worth to you to have a piece of Seattle history? Selling each piece seperately. There are 2 smaller pieces left and the biggest one
Let me answer that question: nothing. But since the pieces are selling for the same price, it appears that the amount (and value) of history infused into each of these is exactly equal despite their different sizes. I’m not sure how that works. Is history like a hologram where pieces of it, shredded, all present a partial fragment of perspective?
How can a pebble, which for all we know could be fake, picked up while walking by a construction site, be worth more than a 2001 Ichiro bobblehead?
ICHIRO BOBBLEHEAD ONLY GIVEN OUT ON JULY 28 2001. MINNESOTA TWINS VS SEATTLE MARINERS. BY NISSAN. ICHIRO BOBBLE HEAD DAY. NODDER BOBBLE HEAD IS IN MINT UNDAMAGED CONDITION. THE BOX HAS SOME HANDLING AND EDGE WEAR.
So a 2001 bobblehead of Ichiro, in his debut RoY/MVP year in which the M’s won 116 games is worth 36% of a pebble? Where’s the invisible hand here?
Meanwhile “Mike” is already attempting to sell nearly all of his tickets at cost already.
I have a season ticket package with two Lower Box seats, Section 125, Row 27. The Box Office charges $58 per ticket for these seats, but I am offering them for just $40! Feel free to select as many as you like from the list below.
It’s an interesting tactic: buy season tickets (they’re $40 a stub for him, btw, don’t let Mike mislead you into thinking he’s taking a loss), hold back the ones you think you can scalp for a profit (NYY, Boston) and then dump the rest. I guess there are worse business models.
M’s Sign Mike Sweeney
Well, a bunch of you have been screaming for the M’s to sign a hitter, so here’s one for you.
Okay, so, it’s a minor league contract, and Sweeney’s not exactly the kind of big bat that everyone wants. Back problems have robbed him of his power, and now he’s just a high contact hitter with an empty BA. At 35, and coming off three years as a below average hitter, it’s pretty unlikely that he’s going to hook himself up to the juvenation machine and party like its 2002.
But, he’s a free replacement level bat to have in Peoria. He probably won’t make the team unless he shows that he’s found some power somewhere, and there’s no real risk of him taking the job of anyone more worthy of a roster spot. So, it’s just organizational depth with a very, very tiny bit of upside.
Or, alternately, it’s a reminder to the former regime that this is exactly what no-power, slap hitting DH’s cost to acquire.
Garrett Olson
ESPN reports that the pitching prospect the M’s are getting with Ronny Cedeno is Garrett Olson, whom the Cubs just picked up from the Orioles for Felix Pie.
At this point, if you don’t like this trade, you’re just trying to be a curmudgeon. This is an amazingly fantastic deal for the M’s.
Olson is a 25-year-old LHP with a below average fastball, a good slider, and a solid change-up. He was the Orioles best pitching prospect the last few years, but like Cedeno, he’s been bad in the majors. However, not nearly as bad as his results would indicate.
In 132 innings for Baltimore last year, Olson had a 5.13 FIP – way, way lower than his 6.65 ERA. Just like we talked about with Silva, there’s a huge regression to the mean coming, and considering his minor league track record, quite a bit of upside beyond that.
Olson consistently struck out about one batter per inning in the minors and flashed good command as well. He’s pretty neutral on balls in play, being neither an extreme groundball or flyball guy. CHONE projects him for a 4.96 FIP for 2009, which sounds about right. He’s a #5 starter with potentially some upside as a #4 starter. Not that much unlike Aaron Heilman himself, honestly.
He’s under team control for five more years, and he won’t make any money until 2011. Adding him to Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ryan Feierabend, and Jason Vargas, the club now has four mid-20s LHPs with potential who are all under team control for the next 4-5 years. The M’s have quietly been stockpiling arms who fit perfectly into Safeco Field, and filling out the back-end of the rotation for no cost for the foreseeable future.
I’d have traded Heilman for either Ronny Cedeno or Garrett Olson. To get both is just a huge win for the M’s.
Ronny Cedeno
As the main piece the M’s are getting for Heilman, I know a lot of you are going to look at his major league numbers and see a .252/.289/.350 major league performance and feel like we’re not getting much back. But there’s a lot more to Ronny Cedeno than his major league totals.
Coming up through the minors from 2001 to 2005, Cedeno was one of the better shortstop prospects in baseball. The Cubs promoted him aggressively, getting him to Double-A at age 21 (in 2004), where he responded with a solid .279/.321/.401 mark, showing gap power as well as flashing a good glove. In 2005, he thrashed Triple-A pitching at age 22, hitting .355/.403/.518, significantly improving his contact ability while maintaining good power for a middle infielder and still showing off with the leather. He got his first taste of the big leagues that summer and held his own, hitting .300/.356/.375 in 80 at-bats.
The Cubs gave him an everyday job in 2006, and it didn’t go well. 572 plate appearances, a .259 wOBA, and average defense at shortstop were not what the Cubs had in mind. It was a bad rookie season, no doubt, and it sent him on a journey back to Triple-A for 2007. He picked up where he left off in 2005, again torching Triple-A pitching for a .359/.422/.537 mark that earned him a ticket back to the majors, where he struggled again, albeit in just 74 at-bats.
In 2008, he was used as a utility infielder and showed some of his prior offensive promise, posting a .305 wOBA in 236 PA. It was definitely a step forward, albeit one that still made him just a useful back-up and not the everyday player the Cubs were hoping he’d turn into.
So, Cedeno’s got a history of offensive potential that hasn’t been realized in the majors through his first 1,000 plate appearances spread out over four years. Heading into his age 26 season, he’s at put-up or shut-up time, where he either realizes some of his potential or ends up as a backup infielder for the rest of his career.
Given the M’s issues up the middle and their overall lack of depth at the SS/2B positions in the high minors, Cedeno is a good acquisition. There’s real upside here – his glove is good enough to make him a league average middle infielder if he can post a .315 to .320 wOBA, and this team could really use a league average middle infielder. In a lot of ways, he replaces Luis Valbuena, who we shipped off in the J.J. Putz deal. He’s the guy we’re looking at now for a little bit of offense and good defense who can push Lopez/Betancourt and give us real depth up the middle.
Cedeno, like Gutierrez and Branyan and Aardsma and Walker and Shelton before him, is the acquisition of a talented guy who needs a shot to see if he can live up to his potential. He’s exactly the kind of player the M’s should be acquiring, and given their relative excess of arms and shortage of infielders, swapping Heilman for Cedeno makes a lot of sense. That they were able to get a pitching prospect as well just makes this another good move for Zduriencik.
He’s still batting 1.000 as the M’s GM.